LSU vs Missouri preview, prediction: College Football picks
The LSU Tigers are looking to bounce back in Southeastern Conference play with another road test, this one against the Missouri Tigers. Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium will play host to the cross-conference clash between the two Tigers. The visitors will be eager to get back into the win column following a loss to Ole Miss.
The Top 25 SEC showdown is set to kick off at 11 a.m. CT from Columbia, Missouri. ESPN will carry the national broadcast with Bob Wischusen and Robert Griffin III on the call.
Caesars Sportsbook, the official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com, is favoring the visitors by a few with the over/under set at 65 total points.
Let's take a closer look at the odds, highlight some picks and a make prediction for this Week 6 SEC showdown:
LSU Tigers at Missouri Tigers
Time/TV: Saturday at 11 a.m. (ESPN)
Spread: LSU -5.5
Over/Under: 65
Moneyline: LSU -205, Missouri +170
TOP PICK
LSU -5.5 at Missouri (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
As I stated on Thursday's 'Bayou Bets' show, I would put a mortgage payment on the LSU Tigers in this spot. Trends don't support this pick seeing as the visitors are 2-3 against the spread this season. However, Brian Kelly's boys are just an overall better football team.
Jayden Daniels would be a Heisman Trophy front-runner right now if the Tigers hadn't lost two games up to this point. He's got two of the best wide receivers in the conference and Missouri is going to struggle to contain them throughout the afternoon. The hosts have a middle-of-the-road pass defense and that will likely be exposed by Mike Denbrock's explosive play calls.
Furthermore, Missouri may be undefeated up until this point, but the Tigers haven't faced an opponent in the same class as LSU. They've beaten Middle Tennessee, Kansas State and Memphis by a total of 14 points — all of which came at home. LSU is a different animal entirely.
The visiting Tigers' offense will prove to be too much for Missouri to handle and their defense cannot possibly play any worse. The hosts don't match up as well against LSU as Ole Miss did last weekend — that'll make this a relatively easy victory for the Bayou Bengals.
Prediction: LSU 45, Missouri 27 (Over 65)
OTHER PICKS
LSU at Missouri OVER 65 total points (-110 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Does this one need any explanation? LSU arguably has the best offense in the country and Missouri can light up the scoreboard, as well. The visitors have seen the over hit in each of their last nine contests; the host's over is 7-2 during the same span.
65 is a lot of points on paper, but let's remember LSU is averaging 45 points per game on its own. This isn't your grandfather's Tigers anymore, this is a new age of football in Baton Rouge.
Jayden Daniels OVER 2.5 passing touchdowns (+116 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Jayden Daniels has thrown 3+ touchdowns in three of LSU's five games so far this season. As I alluded to earlier, he's putting up elite numbers at the quarterback position and he deserves his flowers in the Heisman Trophy conversation.
Missouri has one of the better rush defenses in the conference, so expect Denbrock and Co. to turn to the aerial attack to find success. The host Tigers are ninth in the SEC in pass defense, which means Daniels could have a field day. I like the LSU gunslinger to throw at least three touchdowns and quiet the crowd in Columbia.
Brian Thomas Jr. OVER 83.5 receiving yards (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
Malik Nabers established himself as a household name in the LSU wide receiver room last season, but there wasn't a whole lot of buzz around Brian Thomas Jr. outside of Baton Rouge. Well, now the latter has the entire country listening after the tremendous start he's had to the season.
We're dipping back into the No. 11 well after he's won us previous prop picks.
Thomas is averaging nearly 110 yards per game this season. After torching the Ole Miss secondary for 124 yards and three touchdowns last week, Thomas has burst onto the scene. He's getting the necessary targets to justify betting the over on an 83.5-yard prop, it should be another big week for him.
