Lucas Giolito trade boosts Angels playoff odds; Shohei Ohtani not being dealt and will start Thursday matinee vs. Tigers
It often takes one big deal within a week or so of the annual MLB trade deadline to open the floodgates for more major deals. That may soon be the case after the Los Angeles Angels acquired Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez for prospects late Wednesday. The Halos are still +700 longshots at DraftKings to make the playoffs but now will keep Shohei Ohtani through the deadline -- and he pitches Thursday afternoon in Detroit.
Giolito is 6-6 with a 3.79 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 131 strikeouts in 21 starts, a nice bounce-back year following a disappointing 2022. He's given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts. Giolito, whose 834 strikeouts are fourth-most in the majors over the past five seasons, is still a relatively young 29 and has proven very durable in his big-league career. He will be a free agent this winter, so it was a no-brainer decision for the white-flag waiving White Sox to ship him out.
Ohtani has a 3.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .195 opponents' batting average in the L.A, rotation, while all the other Angels starters have an ERA of 4.86 (would be fifth-worst in MLB for a full rotation), 1.42 WHIP and .262 opposing BA. Starting pitching was a massive need.
Lopez, also 29, originally came to Chicago with Giolito from Washington in the Adam Eaton trade ahead of the 2017 season. Lopez was a starter for a while, but the Sox have used him fully in relief the past two seasons. He's 2-5 with a 4.29 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 42 innings in 2023 and also a pending free agent.
ESPN's Buster Olney reported last night that teams had been informed the Angels won't trade Ohtani before Tuesday's deadline. The White Sox deal happened not long after.
The Angels may not be done either, as if they somehow make the playoffs, it might help to convince Ohtani to re-sign this winter. The team is also reportedly inquiring about Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario. Los Angeles missing the playoffs is still a heavy -1000 favorite, but L.A. is only four games back of the AL's final wild card spot. The Angels have not reached the postseason since 2014, when they were swept in the ALDS by the Royals.
L.A. gave up two of its top prospects in catcher Edgar Quero and left-hander Ky Bush to Chicago, but didn't touch the big-league roster.
While the Angels' playoff odds have improved a bit with this, their odds to win the World Series dropped significantly from +15000 as recently as Monday to +8000 at BetMGM. Still long odds, to be sure, but if the Halos can get into the postseason, they could be very dangerous now with Giolito behind Ohtani in the rotation and presumably a healthy Mike Trout, who has been out since June 3 with a hamate bone injury and probably at least two weeks away at a minimum form a return.
As for Thursday, the Angels are playing a doubleheader in Detroit because of Wednesday's rainout. Ohtani gets the ball in the opener. His .195 opponents' average leads the majors and his 148 strikeouts are fourth. Ohtani has been a bit worse away at 3-2 with a 4.60 ERA in eight starts. He hasn't seen the Tigers this year and us 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA in four career starts against them. Ohtani is +135 to personally win today and set at over/under 1.5 earned runs and 7.5 strikeouts.
Last weekend, the Angels announced they were pushing Ohtani back to Friday in Toronto to avoid having him pitch two straight games in hot, humid weather in Detroit and Atlanta. But Wednesday's rainout changed the mind of manager Phil Nevin, who said the team wanted to avoid having Ohtani hitting in two games and then travel the night before pitching in Toronto.
At the plate, he leads the majors with 36 homers and is +360 to homer in Game 1. Ohtani doesn't have an official at-bat (one walk) against Tigers pitcher Michael Lorenzen (5-6, 3.49 ERA), who was an Angels teammate in 2022.
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