Magic vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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15 December 2023

Magic vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Magic will try to double-down on their In-Season Tournament victory over the Celtics when they face off at TD Garden on Friday night. Our NBA betting picks believe Paolo Banchero will aid his team's cause by helping those around him.

It's a battle between two of the top teams in the Eastern Conference on Friday, as we dive into the NBA odds to find our best bet for the clash between the Orlando Magic and Boston Celtics. There is also zero sarcasm in that opening sentence; the Magic are, in fact, one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference at the moment.

Not only do the Orlando Magic hold a 16-7 record, giving them the third-best record in the Eastern Conference, but they have also had the Boston Celtics' number over their last several matchups. The Magic have won outright against the Celtics in their last four meetings and are catching four points at TD Garden on Friday.

How are the Magic doing it? Defense, defense, defense, and the growth of their two young superstars. When you look at the updated EPM stats, Jalen Suggs ranks as the best defender in the NBA, and in third is Goga Bitadze, who has been filling in for the injured Wendell Carter Jr.

The Celtics will have their hands full on the second night of a back-to-back when they host the Magic on Friday. So, let's take a closer look at why I'm betting on this specific Magic NBA player prop and more in our free NBA picks for Magic vs. Celtics on Friday, December 15.

Magic vs Celtics odds

Magic vs Celtics predictions

The Magic and Celtics recently faced off on Nov. 24 in Orlando for the NBA In-Season Tournament, with the Magic emerging victorious by a score of 113-96. In that game, the Celtics were without Jrue Holiday and chose to start both Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis against the Magic. This lineup adjustment was essentially their response to the Magic's frontcourt, enabling them to assign Horford as the primary defender on Paolo Banchero, with Porzingis providing help.

For Friday's game, we have a significant amount of injury news that will play a crucial role in how we approach betting on this matchup. Horford has already been ruled out for the Celtics, Luke Kornet is also sidelined, and Porzingis is doubtful. This leaves the Celtics in an interesting defensive position against a team where their two bigs serve as the primary ball handlers.

The Celtics will likely aim to guard Banchero with either Jayson Tatum or even Jrue Holiday, both of whom have been matched up against other bigs in previous games. The bottom line is that the Celtics will be undersized, and the Magic will be able to exploit mismatches for Banchero, forcing the Celtics into a lot of help defense. Help defense for Banchero translates to assist opportunities, and Banchero has already demonstrated this season that he is a willing passer.

Over the Magic's last five games, Banchero leads them in potential assists with 9.8 per game. The offense runs through Banchero, and even though he is a forward, he receives a significant number of touches on the offensive end.

Banchero is projected to have four assists against Tatum & Co. on Friday, allowing us to price the Paolo Banchero odds for Over 3.5 assists at -122. Based on this projection, this bet shows a positive expected value of 10%.

My best bet: Paolo Banchero Over 3.5 assists (+100 at BetMGM)

Magic vs Celtics same-game parlay

Paolo Banchero Over 3.5 assists

Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds

Jayson Tatum Over 4.5 assists

With all of the bigs potentially sidelined for the Celtics, someone is going to have to hit the glass and grab some boards, especially against the Magic. The rebounding prop for Tatum has seen some heavy steam toward the Over throughout the afternoon, and with good reason.

There will be an emphasis on rebounding as a team with a much smaller lineup, and Tatum already averages 8.9 rebounds per game when all of their forwards are healthy, so I think there is something we can attack with this prop considering the injuries and the total trading at 9.5.

The third leg of the SGP is another Tatum prop, because the reality is the Celtics will need his size against the Magic with all of the injuries. It's the second night of a back-to-back, but Tatum could be looking at heavy minutes here if the Celtics need it. In their previous meeting on Nov. 24, Tatum only had three assists against the Magic but 11 potential assists, so the opportunities were there for Tatum to go Over a number such as 4.5.

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Magic vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as a 6-point favorite over the Magic on DraftKings, but we have seen the spread fall to Celtics -4, and this has been directly related to all of the injury news that has been coming out for the Celtics throughout the day. Jaylen Brown is also listed as questionable for the Celtics, so if he also sits out on Friday, that would cause another major adjustment to this line.

The total opened at 222.5 at FanDuel and has been steadily climbing to the 224.5 that it is currently trading at. It doesn't appear this number is going to settle at 224.5 either, as Caesars has already bumped their line up to 225.