Magic vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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06 February 2024

Magic vs Heat Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Magic have the personnel to make life difficult on Jimmy Butler, but the Heat's leading man is crafty enough to pass the buck, as our NBA picks explain.

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Paolo Banchero and the Orlando Magic will be in Miami on Tuesday to face Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat as the race for first place in the Southeast Division heats up, and we have you covered with our best bet for this matchup using the latest NBA odds.

This will be the fourth and final meeting between the Orlando Magic and the Miami Heat, holding quite a bit of significance when it comes to a divisional tiebreaker. The Heat lead the season series 2-1, but the Magic can tie it with a win on Tuesday, shifting the potential tiebreaker to divisonal record.

With the Magic looking to increase their lead in the standings for the division, my focus will be on one of the Heat's best players in my free NBA picks for the Magic vs. Heat on February 6.

Magic vs Heat odds

Magic vs Heat predictions

This will be the fourth meeting of the season between the Magic and the Heat, but only the second one in which Jimmy Butler will participate. Butler missed the first two games with an injury but played when these two teams met on January 21.

In that matchup on January 21, it was tough for Butler, who scored only 15 points along with two assists, and the Magic won by a score of 105-87.

Butler, a physical swingman who has no problem finishing around the rim or posting up opponents, witnessed the Magic countering his offensive style by assigning Paolo Banchero as his primary defender. If the Heat managed to generate a switch and get the smaller Jalen Suggs on Butler, the Magic sent a double team the moment Butler went down in the post.

There isn't much the Heat can do to generate switches for Butler and create a scoring advantage, as the Magic can field a lineup of four players who are 6'10 at the same time. Jamahl Mosley couldn't even unleash his greatest weapon in the fourth quarter against Butler, Jonathan Isaac, because the game was a blowout, and Butler sat out.

All that being said, while I believe that Butler will have a tough time scoring, it doesn't mean he can't create for his teammates. When the Heat and Butler review the film of how they lost by 18 points, the emphasis coming into this game should be on Butler being used as a facilitator on offense against the Magic.

If the total were set at 5.5 for Butler, I'd be wary about using this angle, but Butler is trading at 3.5 (-125) on Tuesday against the Magic. This is a low total in general for Butler, who usually trades at 4.5 and even 5.5, especially when talking about a defense that can force him to create offense instead of scoring.

Butler is projected to have 4.4 assists on Tuesday against the Magic, allowing us to price the Over 3.5 assists at -162, but it is available at bet365 at -125.

My best bet: Jimmy Butler Over 3.5 assists (-125 at bet365)

Magic vs Heat same-game parlay

Jimmy Butler Over 3.5 assists

Jimmy Butler Over 0.5 threes made

Terry Rozier Over 1.5 threes made

Butler Over 3.5 assists is my best bet because the Magic possess a defense that can really neutralize his offensive game around the rim and turn him more into a facilitator. However, that doesn't mean I think Butler won't score any points.

In fact, I believe it will lead to Butler attempting more threes than usual because a pull-up 3-pointer for Butler will be a better shot than a contested drive on Banchero. When these teams met on January 21, Butler attempted five 3-pointers, significantly higher than his season average of 2.2 per game.

Butler should be looking to drive the lane and kick out to the Heat shooters against the Magic. With Tyler Herro battling migraines, I'm going to roll with Terry Rozier Over 1.5 threes made to pair with the Butler assists prop. Rozier could also see extended minutes and higher usage if Herro misses a second straight game.

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Magic vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis

The Heat opened as 4-point favorites at FanDuel, but we have since seen that line drop down to Heat -3. FanDuel is currently the only sportsbook that has made such a move, as the rest of the market is comfortably sitting at Heat -3.5. So, make sure to shop around before hitting the button on a side for this matchup.

The total opened at 213.5 at DraftKings and has dropped by half a point to 213. Similar to the spread, FanDuel is running a bit rogue with their pricing for this game, as they have the total sitting at 212. The rest of the market is much more in line with what DraftKings is trading the total at, which is 213.