Magic vs Pelicans NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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27 February 2023

Magic vs Pelicans NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

The Pelicans are back inside Smoothie King Center for a lone home tilt before heading back on the road to start March. Hanging onto a play-in spot, they're in desperate need of a win and our NBA betting picks expect them to do just that.

A short four-game NBA betting slate comes to a close when the Orlando Magic visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Monday night.

New Orleans is clinging to the 10-seed in the Western Conference, which earns the last ticket into the postseason play-in tournament but has dropped three in a row and remains without superstar Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future.

Orlando, on the other hand, has sunk near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and teeters on a tricky spot in the schedule: push for the playoffs or turn on the tank in hopes for an elite lottery pick. Its February record is reflective of that standing, going 5-5 SU and 4-6 ATS this month.

I run down the spread and Over/Under total for this non-conference clash and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Magic at Pelicans on February 27.

Magic vs Pelicans best odds

Magic vs Pelicans picks and predictions

This stop in the Smoothie King Center is an oasis in the desert for this New Orleans Pelicans team. It follows four straight road games with three more away trips on the other side of Monday’s home stand vs. the Orlando Magic, visiting Portland, Golden State, and Sacramento to start March.

Given that challenge, this contest takes on a must-win feel against a weaker foe. The Magic are watching their wheels wobble and while NOLA isn’t among the NBA’s elite, this is a notable step up in competition for Orlando both in quality of opponent and venue.

It just faced some of the worst teams in the NBA with Chicago, Detroit, and Indiana on the recent sked, losing to the Pacers by 13 at home and barely getting past the Pistons on a last-second tip-in for a 1-point win. The Magic have also hunkered down at home in recent weeks, with only two road games since February 6.

Orlando sits 24th in net rating (-4.9) away from home with an average margin of -4.7 points per contest – pretty much where this spread sits for Monday night. I do expect the Pelicans to pick it up in front of the Big Easy faithful, especially when it comes to offensive efficiency.

New Orleans shot a collective 45% from the field over those previous four road games, including a dismal 30.1% clip from beyond the arc. That bubbled over in an 8-for-38 effort from deep in the loss to the Knicks on Saturday.

The Pels are far from the 3-point elite in the NBA but do shoot 37.3% from beyond the arc at home on the season (12th best) for an average of 11.6 triples a contest. Recently acquired guard Josh Richardson has emerged as a threat from distance and helped soften that dip in 3-point success.

Those friendly rims, coupled with the need to get right before going back out on the road will get NOLA on the other side of this 4-point spread.

My best bet: Pelicans -3.5 (-115 at BetMGM)

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Magic vs Pelicans spread analysis

NBA odds opened this game with the Pelicans anywhere from -3.5 to -5.5 but the market consensus has since settled at New Orleans -4 as of Monday afternoon.

The Pelicans are back in the Big Easy after a disastrous three-game road stretch that straddled the All-Star break, featuring three foes all pushing for the postseason (L.A. Lakers, Toronto, New York). This 4-point spread is just the third time this team has been favored in the past dozen games going back to late January.

New Orleans has been sputtering offensively since Williamson went down to start January (offensive rating dipped from No. 8 at 114.8 to 24th at 111.3) and has really struggled in the last five outings, with that metric slipping to 106.5 and the offense producing just 105.6 points per game in that span.

Granted, four of those five games came away from home and the Smoothie King Center will be a sight for sore eyes Monday with this matchup with Orlando being NOLA’s lone home stand in an eight-game stretch. The Pelicans own a +5.3 margin of victory as hosts vs. just -3.3 on the road.

The Magic are also failing to post significant scores in recent efforts and have averaged only 106.4 points over their last five contests, going 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in that stretch. Orlando couldn’t produce despite that soft slate of games that featured fellow bottom-feeders like Indiana, Chicago, and Detroit.

These non-conference foes met back in mid-January, with the Magic winning 123-110 at home as 1-point pups. The Pelicans were without Williamson as well as standout forward Brandon Ingram for that game, so don't put too much weight into the result.

Orlando enters Monday at 33-27-1 ATS, including a 16-13-1 ATS mark on the road. New Orleans boasts a 17-13 ATS record at home, part of a 28-32-1 ATS count for the year.

Magic vs Pelicans Over/Under analysis

Monday’s total hit the board at 226.5 points, dropped to 225 before climbing to 227 and as high as 228 at some online shops.

We mentioned the Pelicans’ offensive issues stacking up in recent outings, but this return home could shake this offense awake. New Orleans sits 11th in home offensive rating (compared to 24th on the road) and averaged 122.5 points over a four-game home stand at the beginning of the month, going Over the total in three of those contests.

The Magic routinely draw sub-230 totals as one of the worst offensive clubs in the NBA, and that efficiency hits the skids away from Orlando with the team sitting 29th in offensive rating on the road. That’s manifested itself in a 12-16-2 Over/Under record as a visitor on the season.

New Orleans is 33-28 O/U on the season with a 14-16 O/U count in the Big Easy. The Magic own a 28-31-2 O/U record and have stayed below the closing total in nine of their last 11 games overall.