Major Wager Online Sports Betting Analysis

The Octagon makes its return to Canada for the first time since 2019 on Saturday for UFC 289. The promotion’s sixth trip to Vancouver will feature double-champ Amanda Nunes (22-5 MMA, 15-2 UFC) defending her women’s bantamweight belt against Irene Aldana.

The Early Prelims start at 7:00 p.m. Eastern and are on both ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass. The Prelims kick off at 8:00 p.m. ET. on ESPN and the pay-per-view card is at 10:00 on ESPN+.

We’ll get back to the headlining scrap shortly, but let’s start out by discussing the co-main event. Former lightweight champion Charles ‘Do Bronx’ Oliveira (33-9-0-1 MMA, 21-9-0-1UFC) is fighting for the first time since losing his title to Islam Makhachev last year at UFC 280.

The 33-year-old Brazilian will take on Beneil Dariush, who comes into this bout on an eight-fight winning streak. The 34-year-old Dariush (22-4 MMA, 16-4 UFC) was originally set to face Oliveira last month at UFC 288, but a minor injury to the former 155-pound kingpin forced the UFC to push the contest back a month.

Oliveira had his 11-fight winning streak snapped against Makhachev, who won the title via second-round submission (arm-triangle choke). He easily made weight this morning with two pounds to spare, tipping the scales at 154.

Dariush, who came in at 156 pounds, is off a unanimous-decision win over Mateusz Gamrot (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) at UFC 280. His seven previous wins came over the likes of Thiago Moises, Drew Dober, Frank Camacho, Drakkar Klose, Scott Holtzman, Carlos Diego Ferreira and Tony Ferguson.

However, out of those eight opponents, only Gamrot (No. 7) is currently ranked in the lightweight loop. Dariush’s other notable career wins have come over Jim Miller, James Vick and Michael Johnson, but the split-decision victory over Johnson was extremely controversial (all 12 media members scored the bout for Johnson, with two of those giving all three rounds to ‘The Menace’).

Dariush is in a third-place tie for career wins in the lightweight division (16), trailing only Miller (22) and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone (17). He’s tied for ninth in division history in finishes with eight.

Oliveira is the UFC’s all-time leader in both finishes (19) and submission wins (16), and he’s tied with Cerrone for most fight night bonuses (18). He’s also ranked second in submission attempts (40), fifth in career wins (21) and ninth in Octagon appearances (31).

Oliveira has beaten three former interim lightweight champs in Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Ferguson. Four of his nine career defeats have come against either a current champion (Makhachev) or former champions like Frankie Edgar, Max Holloway and Anthony Pettis.

Oliveira owns other notable scalps over Darren Elkins, Jeremy Stephens, Clay Guida, Miller, Kevin Lee and Michael Chandler.

PREDICTION: This is a big step up in competition for Dariush, who didn’t face Ferguson until he’d seen his 12-fight winning streak snapped by Gaethje and then lost again to Oliveira. And Ferguson is Dariush’s most quality victory.

Oliveira has faced all of the killers from two different divisions (featherweight and lightweight) in 13 years with the organization. He’s also bounced back from defeat before, going 5-2 with one no-contest in his eight bouts when coming off a loss.

In backing Oliveira as a +134 underdog (FanDuel), we’re on the younger fighter, the taller man, the one with more experience overall and against top-flight competition, and we’re getting underdog odds.

Charles Oliveira +134 for TWO UNITS. 

We all know that Nunes is the women’s GOAT. She secured that moniker a long time ago.

She’s finished four of the greatest women’s champions – Miesha Tate, Ronda Rousey, Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm – in the first round. Nunes has also defeated former flyweight queenpin Valentina Shevchenko twice and former featherweight champ Germaine de Randamie twice.

‘The Lioness’ saw her 12-fight winning streak snapped at UFC 269 on Dec. 11 of 2021. That’s when Julianna Pena submitted her by rear-naked choke at the 3:26 mark of Round 2.

On that night in Las Vegas, Pena started finding a home for her jab early in the second stanza. As she kept peppering the champ with jabs that bloodied her nose, it became clear that Nunes wasn’t enjoying getting hit in the face. At least not on that night.

Pena eventually got the takedown, took her back and went for the submission. Nunes seemingly tapped before the choke was really locked in tight.

In other words, you could make the valid argument that Nunes quit. Again, at least on that night, she didn’t want it as much as her opponent did.

Now, did Nunes avenge that loss by dominating Pena in the rematch last July at UFC 277? No doubt about. She punished Pena in a unanimous-decision victory (50-45, 50-44, 50-43) that was just as lopsided as the judges scorecards suggested.

Still, it’s fair to question if the 35-year-old Nunes still has that fire. She’s a mother now, she isn’t as active fighting, she’s got more money that she ever dreamed of having and she ran out of things to prove before the first bout with Pena.

And that’s when we saw her not want to get hit in the face. That’s when we saw her basically quit. Again, she bounced back in dominant fashion, but that was a pissed-off version of Nunes.

Pena talked all sorts of shit to get under Nunes’s skin before and after the first bout. That’s what drove Nunes’s hunger for revenge.

Aldana (14-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC) took this fight on short notice, agreeing to replace an injured Pena on May 2. The 35-year-old Mexican is trying to become the promotion’s fourth champion from her home country.

Aldana has won back-to-back fights and seven of her last nine. The lone defeats came vs. Holm in October of 2020 by UD and to former title challenger Raquel Pennington via split decision. (According to MMADecisions, nine of 13 media members scored the contest for Pennington.)

Aldana has eight knockouts and three submissions in her 14 career victories. Her last three wins have come by KO, including first-round finishes of Yana Kunitskaya and Ketlen Vieira.

PREDICTION: When asked about her future at Wednesday’s media scrum, Nunes said she was never going to retire with Pena having her belt. She also made a remark that implied she’d be cool with calling it a career with anyone else as the champ – just not Pena.

Even before that statement, I felt fairly confident that Nunes was going to retire tonight whether or not she wins or loses. I feel even more confident about that now.

And when a fighter has one foot out the door, well, you know how that usually goes. Aldana has only been finished twice in 20 career fights, and those setbacks came in 2013 and 2015.

If she can weather the early storm from Nunes, I think she’s going to have an excellent shot at pulling the upset. My guess is that her cardio is going to be better, and I’m confident that she’s the hungrier fighter.

Aldana has handled all of her media responsibilities this week with poise and confidence. There’s been zero blink in her faceoffs with the women’s GOAT.

Therefore, I’m calling for the upset, but I’m not risking much. Let’s go with Aldana as a +270 underdog (BetMGM) for one-third of a unit. 

**Other Picks**

-Mike Malott (9-1-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) has nine first-round finishes in his 11-fight career, ending four by KO and five via submissions. He’s a -210 favorite vs. fellow welterweight Adam Fugitt (9-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC), who is a +175 underdog. Fugitt has eight finishes in his nine career victories, with four of his 12 bouts ending in the opening frame. I’m on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds (-110 price) for one unit, Malott to win inside the distance (-125) for two units and Malott to win in Round 1 (+190 at FanDuel) for one-half unit. 

-In a featherweight scrap on the main card, Nate ‘The Train’ Landwehr will take on Dan ’50K’ Ige. Landwehr (17-4 MMA, 4-2 UFC) is on a three-fight winning streak, bagging fight-night bonuses in all three of those victories. Ige (16-6 MMA, 8-5 UFC) has lost three of his last four bouts and four of his last six, and he was gifted a bullshit split decision over Edson Barboza so he should really be mired in a 2-5 slump. Let’s go with Landwehr as a +210 underdog for one-half unit.

-That’s all I’ve got for tonight’s card – six plays with 6.63 units in play with the possibility of winning 9.3 units (I didn’t break the calculator out, so I’m like 90% confident that I’m getting the 9.3 units correct to the last decimal.)

-But I do have one more play. DraftKings opened Jailton Almedia as a -155 favorite for his five-round headlining bout vs. Curtis ‘Razor’ Blaydes in a heavyweight match down in Brazil on Nov. 4. The number is now down to -150, so let’s risk three units to win two on Almeida. We’ll be more aggressive with Almeida once some props come out for him to win inside the distance or via a specific finish.

-Whether you tail or fade, best of luck with your bets tonight and enjoy the show!