Makinen: College Basketball Rematch Betting Trends
I got a lot of traction from an article I put together around mid-season that detailed the key stats, trends, and systems regarding NFL rematches. With divisional teams playing twice annually against their biggest rivals, the rematch, or in half the cases, revenge aspect of the second-time around games takes on unique importance.
The same can be said in college basketball, where most conference schedules pit league opponents against each other two times every season. It can become three times when you add conference tournament action into the mix. Naturally, some teams fare better than others when facing a team they’ve already played, albeit due to coaching adjustments made or a variety of other reasons. With that in mind, this piece is dedicated to uncovering the best and worst rematch teams in the country recently, as well as some other top trends and systems that you can employ as the calendar turns to February, a month synonymous with rematches in college hoops.
There is a lot to be sorted out yet in terms of the conference races, and the bids forthcoming to the annual postseason tournaments. What will clarify this picture the rest of the way? For the most part, it will be the rematches between conference rivals. In most cases, teams have faced a good percentage of their league foes already. There is plenty of game film to be digested as well. How will teams adjust the second time around? Does it matter if they won or lost the opening game? Are there certain teams that are better in late-season rematches when favored or when playing at home, etc? Are there any specific scenarios when it’s better to back teams in revenge mode? This article will answer all of those questions and much more.
The months of February and March are always the biggest for betting college basketball, both because of football wrapping up and because bettors are much more familiar with the teams now than they were earlier in the season. Using this rematch info should help give readers a leg up in the handicapping process, as it is an important part of what happens the rest of the way.
Best college basketball rematch teams lately
- HOUSTON: 43-7 SU and 34-15 ATS
- MEMPHIS: 28-18 SU and 31-14 ATS
- OHIO U: 24-17 SU and 28-13 ATS
- SE LOUISIANA: 22-20 SU and 28-13 ATS
- NORTH CAROLINA: 25-12 SU and 24-12 ATS
- MISSOURI-KC: 19-17 SU and 23-11 ATS
- MISSISSIPPI ST: 19-16 SU and 21-11 ATS
- SOUTH CAROLINA ST: 9-20 SU but 19-10 ATS
Worst college basketball rematch teams lately
- NEW JERSEY TECH: 8-31 SU and 12-27 ATS
- SAMFORD: 17-31 SU and 15-29 ATS
- EAST CAROLINA: 8-31 SU and 13-26 ATS
- BALL ST: 14-27 SU and 14-27 ATS
- CS-BAKERSFIELD: 11-26 SU and 12-24 ATS
- INCARNATE WORD: 5-29 SU and 11-22 ATS
- MORGAN ST: 18-17 SU but 12-23 ATS
- BROWN: 11-17 SU and 9-19 ATS
- COLUMBIA: 7-21 SU and 9-18 ATS
- LASALLE: 8-23 SU and 10-19 ATS
Best college basketball home rematch teams lately
- NIAGARA: 17-5 SU and 18-4 ATS
- TX-SAN ANTONIO: 10-6 SU and 14-2 ATS
- OKLAHOMA ST: 18-5 SU and 17-6 ATS
- OHIO U: 15-4 SU and ATS
- PORTLAND ST: 20-6 SU and 18-8 ATS
- HOUSTON: 22-1 SU and 16-6 ATS
- OREGON: 19-1 SU and 15-5 ATS
- SOUTHERN UTAH: 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS
- SE LOUISIANA: 10-5 SU and 12-2 ATS
Worst college basketball home rematch teams lately
- SETON HALL: 13-12 SU but 6-19 ATS
- NEW JERSEY TECH: 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS
- BOSTON U: 13-12 SU but 7-18 ATS
- THE CITADEL: 7-18 SU and ATS
- HOLY CROSS: 8-18 SU and 8-18 ATS
- BROWN: 6-9 SU and 3-12 ATS
- EASTERN MICHIGAN: 7-8 SU and 3-12 ATS
Best college basketball road rematch teams lately
- NORTHERN COLORADO: 15-6 SU and 17-3 ATS
- UT-CHATTANOOGA: 16-10 SU and 18-7 ATS
- WOFFORD: 16-9 SU and 18-7 ATS
- CANISIUS: 11-11 SU but 16-5 ATS
- FURMAN: 17-7 SU and 17-7 ATS
- CAL DAVIS: 14-6 SU and 15-5 ATS
- NAVY: 12-13 SU but 17-8 ATS
- WISCONSIN: 13-3 SU and 12-3 ATS
- OREGON ST: 6-17 SU but 15-7 ATS
- LIPSCOMB: 13-7 SU and 14-6 ATS
Worst college basketball road rematch teams lately
- IOWA ST: 3-22 SU and 7-17 ATS
- LASALLE: 2-15 SU and 3-12 ATS
- OHIO ST: 4-12 SU and 3-12 ATS
- ALCORN ST: 4-13 SU and ATS
- BALL ST: 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS
- CS-BAKERSFIELD: 5-14 SU and ATS
- TX-ARLINGTON: 5-14 SU and ATS
- NEW MEXICO: 3-18 SU and 6-15 ATS
- COLORADO: 7-18 SU and 8-17 ATS
- SIENA: 13-12 SU but 8-17 ATS
- ALABAMA: 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS
- MICHIGAN ST: 8-9 SU and 4-12 ATS
Best college basketball neutral court rematch teams lately
- PEPPERDINE: 6-4 SU and 9-1 ATS
- ST PETERS: 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS
- KANSAS: 8-1 SU and ATS
- NC CENTRAL: 8-1 SU and ATS
- SYRACUSE: 5-5 SU but 8-1 ATS
- GEORGIA ST: 7-1 SU and ATS
- TEXAS SOUTHERN: 8-1 SU and 7-1 ATS
- LONG BEACH ST: 4-3 SU and 6-0 ATS
Worst college basketball neutral court rematch teams lately
- PURDUE: 5-4 SU but 0-9 ATS
- TOLEDO: 4-4 SU but 0-8 ATS
- NORTHWESTERN: 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS
- FRESNO ST: 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS
- TEXAS TECH: 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS
- BELMONT: 6-4 SU but 2-8 ATS
- BAYLOR: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
- CANISIUS: 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
- MARIST: 0-5 SU and ATS
Best college basketball revenge teams lately
- GEORGETOWN: 14-25 SU but 26-12 ATS
- OHIO U: 13-11 SU and 18-6 ATS
- TEMPLE: 12-9 SU and 16-5 ATS
- WYOMING: 10-19 SU but 19-9 ATS
- PENN ST: 15-10 SU and 17-7 ATS
- WISCONSIN: 14-9 SU and 16-6 ATS
- WILLIAM & MARY: 10-12 SU but 16-6 ATS
- EASTERN WASHINGTON: 15-5 SU and ATS
- LIPSCOMB: 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS
- SOUTH CAROLINA ST: 4-14 SU but 14-4 ATS
- LOYOLA-IL: 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS
Worst college basketball revenge teams lately
- SAMFORD: 10-22 SU and 8-21 ATS
- JACKSONVILLE ST: 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS
- USC UPSTATE: 4-19 SU and 6-17 ATS
- EAST CAROLINA: 2-24 SU and 8-18 ATS
- MINNESOTA: 6-22 SU and 9-19 ATS
- LASALLE: 1-14 SU and 2-11 ATS
- NOTRE DAME: 6-13 SU and 5-14 ATS
- SOUTHERN MISS: 6-23 SU and 10-19 ATS
Best college basketball teams in rematches after winning last game lately
- HOUSTON: 33-6 SU and 26-12 ATS
- SOUTH DAKOTA: 22-9 SU and 21-9 ATS
- JACKSONVILLE ST: 25-6 SU and 21-10 ATS
- MEMPHIS: 17-9 SU and 18-8 ATS
- ABILENE CHRISTIAN: 21-3 SU and 17-7 ATS
- MIDDLE TENN ST: 18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS
- PENNSYLVANIA: 14-7 SU and 15-5 ATS
- NEW ORLEANS: 15-6 SU and 14-6 ATS
- AMERICAN: 11-7 SU and 13-5 ATS
Worst college basketball teams in rematches after winning last game lately
- LIBERTY: 26-6 SU but 9-22 ATS
- COLORADO: 14-22 SU and 12-24 ATS
- NORTH CAROLINA A&T: 14-9 SU but 6-17 ATS
- CS-BAKERSFIELD: 6-10 SU and 3-13 ATS
- NEW JERSEY TECH: 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS
- BRADLEY: 14-13 SU but 8-18 ATS
- IOWA ST: 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS
- BALL ST: 9-13 SU and 7-15 ATS
- OKLAHOMA: 11-13 SU and 8-16 ATS
- WAKE FOREST: 2-9 SU and ATS
High-scoring rematch teams
- TULANE: 31-12 OVER the total
- NEVADA: 33-16 OVER the total
- ORAL ROBERTS: 33-17 OVER the total
- SE LOUISIANA: 29-13 OVER the total
- UTAH: 31-16 OVER the total
- ARK-PINE BLUFF: 24-11 OVER the total
- DUQUESNE: 21-8 OVER the total
- CHARLOTTE: 22-10 OVER the total
- KENNESAW ST: 22-10 OVER the total
- LSU: 22-10 OVER the total
- CAL SAN DIEGO: 14-4 OVER the total
- IUPU-FT WAYNE: 8-0 OVER the total
Low-scoring rematch teams
- FAIRFIELD: 41-18 UNDER the total
- UMASS-LOWELL: 29-14 UNDER the total
- UNLV: 31-16 UNDER the total
- MIDDLE TENN ST: 25-11 UNDER the total
- EASTERN MICHIGAN: 26-12 UNDER the total
- OLD DOMINION: 26-12 UNDER the total
- LONGWOOD: 26-13 UNDER the total
- TARLETON ST: 13-1 UNDER the total
- TX-SAN ANTONIO: 23-12 UNDER the total
- DIXIE ST: 12-2 UNDER the total
- DARTMOUTH: 19-9 UNDER the total
- FLORIDA AandM: 20-10 UNDER the total
- IDAHO ST: 15-5 OVER the total
Other noteworthy college basketball head-to-head second-time (and 3) around ATS trends
- ABILENE CHRISTIAN: 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS as double-digit favorite in rematch games
- COLORADO ST: 2-7 SU and 0-8 ATS in rematch games after upset win in prior game
- GEORGIA TECH: 7-0 SU and ATS as single-digit favorite in rematch games
- HOUSTON: 24-0 SU and 19-4 ATS as double-digit favorite in rematch games
- JACKSONVILLE ST: 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS in rematch games after upset win in prior game
- JACKSONVILLE ST: 4-4 SU but 0-8 ATS in rematch games after upset loss in prior game
- LIPSCOMB: 5-6 SU but 10-1 ATS as road underdog in rematch games
- NEW JERSEY TECH: 4-12 SU and 2-14 ATS as favorite in rematch games
- OKLAHOMA ST: 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS as home underdog in rematch games
- PURDUE: 26-11 SU but 11-25 ATS as favorite in rematch games
- SAMFORD: 5-28 SU and 8-22 ATS as underdog in rematch games
- SETON HALL: 11-8 SU but 3-16 ATS as home favorite in rematch games
- WISCONSIN: 6-0 SU and ATS in rematch games after upset loss in prior game
Other noteworthy college basketball head-to-head second-time (and 3) around totals trends
- CHARLOTTE: 19-5 OVER the total in rematch games in revenge mode
- DARTMOUTH: 10-1 UNDER the total as road underdog in rematch games
- DENVER: 25-8 OVER the total in rematch games in revenge mode
- HOUSTON: 10-1 UNDER the total in rematch games in revenge mode
- KENNESAW ST: 13-2 OVER the total at home in rematch games
- MISSISSIPPI ST: 13-2 UNDER the total as single-digit favorite in rematch games}
- NEVADA: 11-1 OVER the total as road favorite in rematch games
- SOUTH DAKOTA: 20-5 OVER the total on the road in rematch games
- SIENA: 14-2 UNDER the total as home favorite in rematch games
- ST JOHNS: 19-6 UNDER the total as single-digit underdog in rematch games
- THE CITADEL: 21-4 UNDER the total at home in rematch games
- TULANE: 16-2 OVER the total as single-digit underdog in rematch games
- UMASS-LOWELL: 19-4 UNDER the total in rematch games in revenge mode
- USC: 19-6 UNDER the total as single-digit favorite in rematch games
All of the trends above have been team-specific betting angles, the remaining five are nationwide systems that you’ll need to fit teams into.
1. College basketball teams that lost by 20 or more points in the opening game between teams and are now double-digit road dogs for the rematch are on a 114-73 ATS (61%) run.
I wasn’t surprised to see this definitive of a winning record on a trend of this nature in college basketball, as these types of underdogs are very tough to back for bettors. This is about as contrarian of a system as it gets. From a coaching standpoint, losing games by 20 or more points to an opponent requires more than the usual allotment of adjustments for the second time around.
2. College basketball teams that were upset in the prior game by 20 points by a team and are now underdogs of 6 points or more are 6-26 SU but 23-9 ATS (71.9%) in their last 32 rematch tries.
This is somewhat rare, but there are teams that fall apart so much that they are an underdog of 6 points or more to a team they lost in upset fashion to a bit earlier in the season. Perhaps the big loss contributed to, or even started, a string of bad play. As you can see, the massive line adjustment for the rematch turns out to be an overreaction by oddsmakers.
3. College basketball teams that were upset as favorites of 11 points or more by an opponent are 65-31 SU but just 35-59-2 ATS (37.2%) in the same-season revenge attempt.
This would seem to be a case of overpricing by oddsmakers originally, and a doubling up of that mistake for the rematch. In these cases, the original underdog team is simply a tough matchup for the more respected squad. Don’t assume revenge happens, even when vengeful team is considerably better.
4. College basketball teams that lose two straight to an opponent in a given season, including the most recent one in upset fashion, have bounced back with a 74-49 SU and 77-42-4 ATS (64.7%) mark in the third try.
The third time is the charm, as this seemingly better team, as indicated by the closing line of the prior game, has turned things around in the third game versus the opponent that season. Most often, this comes up in conference tournament action.
5. College basketball teams that beat an opponent twice already in a given season but are now an underdog in the third meeting have gone just 34-76 SU and 41-67-2 ATS (38%).
This is very similar to #4 above, only adding a line range qualifier to the mix. Despite the two earlier wins, oddsmakers firmly believe that the double-revenge team is the better one still, as they are favored and usually take care of business.
