Manchester City v Leeds predictions, betting tips and odds

Racing Post

05 May 2023

Manchester City v Leeds predictions, betting tips and odds

Where to watch Manchester City v Leeds

Sky Sports Main Event & Football, 3pm Saturday

Best bet

Manchester City to win & over 3.5 goals
2pts 20-21 Coral, Ladbrokes

Manchester City v Leeds odds

Manchester City 1-6
Leeds 14-1
Draw 15-2

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Manchester City v Leeds team news

Manchester City
Kevin De Bruyne is back in training after missing the last two matches but remains a doubt. Pep Guardiola otherwise has a fully-fit squad to choose from.

Leeds
Tyler Adams, Stuart Dallas and Luis Sinisterra are joined on the sidelines by Liam Cooper, who limped off in the recent defeat to Bournemouth.

Manchester City v Leeds predictions

Leeds have turned to survival specialist Sam Allardyce in a last-ditch attempt to preserve their Premier League status but a trip to title-chasing Manchester City may highlight that there is no quick fix for their defensive flaws.

Last Sunday’s 4-1 defeat at Bournemouth was the final straw for Javi Gracia, whose five-game winless run leaves Leeds outside the relegation places on goal difference.

Gracia’s final month in charge also featured a 5-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace and a 6-1 hiding from visiting Liverpool, results that contribute to them having the worst defensive record in the Premier League with 67 goals conceded in 34 games.

Allardyce is renowned not only for his record of keeping teams in the Premier League - his relegation with West Brom in 2021 was the first time in his career that he had suffered relegation from the top flight - but also for his defensive solidity and stubbornness.

However this looks a tough return to work for Allardyce, who has four games in his ninth role at a Premier League team to steer Leeds clear of the drop, starting with the trip to City and followed by meetings with Newcastle, West Ham and Tottenham.

Not only has Big Sam had only three days to prepare for his first game in the Leeds dugout, but that fixture comes at a table-topping City side who have dropped only four points in 17 league games at the Etihad.

Pep Guardiola’s title-chasers have won nine straight Premier League matches and at home they have been racking up goals freely.

The Citizens took their winning run in all competitions at the Etihad to 13 with Wednesday’s 3-0 win over West Ham, with the phenomenon that is Erling Haaland breaking the Premier League record for goals in a season with his 35th strike.

Big Sam may have learned lessons from that match as West Ham’s five-man defence frustrated the Citizens in a goalless first-half.

But, as many do, the Hammers caved to the pressure, and allowing City the opportunity to dominate possession and toy with their prey can be just as fatal as trying to take the game to them.

Midfield maestro Kevin de Bruyne has been sidelined for the last two matches but such is City’s strength in depth they are able to effortlessly manage their injury situation.

So while Allardyce’s appointment may trigger some sort of response, expecting him to fix overnight a defence that has conceded 23 goals in their last seven games looks far-fetched.

And that is before you consider the attacking quality of the opponents, who have scored three or more in 11 of their last 13 home wins.

Backing over 2.5 City goals is a strong fancy at 4-7 but Leeds, who have scored in nine straight league games, may get the opportunity to use their pace on the counter-attack, so backing a home win in a match featuring four or more goals could trigger some extra value.

Key stat

Both teams have scored in each of Leeds's last nine Premier League matches.

Probable teams

Manchester City (3-2-4-1): Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake; Stones, Rodri; Mahrez, Silva, Alvarez, Grealish; Haaland
Subs: Gundogan, Lewis, Laporte, Foden, Phillips, Gomez, Akanji, De Bruyne.

Leeds (4-1-4-1): Meslier; Ayling, Koch, Struijk, Firpo; McKennie; Summerville, Roca, Rodrigo, Harrison; Bamford.
Subs: Gnonto, Forshaw, Aaronson, Greenwood, Rutter, Wober, Kristensen.