Manchester United can deny Manchester City the treble

It felt fitting that rain was falling as Wout Weghorst gave the ball his kiss of sudden death and Solly March blasted the ensuing penalty over the crossbar, meaning David de Gea emerged victorious from a shootout, possibly banishing the ghosts of Gdansk, without having made a save in it.

This was Manchester weather ahead of a Manchester derby back at Wembley in six weeks’ time that will hold huge significance. United versus City in the FA Cup final. Could it be the most important match ever between the two clubs? That is a big claim, but the context might make it so.

By that stage, on June 3, City could be on the cusp of a treble of trophies. Not just any treble. The treble. The same one United clinched in dramatic, romantic fashion 24 years ago. Nearly a quarter of a century has passed and no English club has replicated the feat, which marries domestic success with European adventure and throws in a dose of nostalgia through the world’s oldest football competition.

It is a beautiful trident and United have been able to claim distinction as its sole holder since that night at Camp Nou in 1999. The fans cherish it. They even have a song, which rhetorically asks whether their opponents might ever have won the treble. The negative answer, supplied with expletive impact, swiftly follows.

But now City are edging closer to joining that exclusive club. They have the Premier League title in their own hands thanks to Arsenal’s recent wobble, and face Real Madrid in the Champions League semi-finals next month. Progress there would see Pep Guardiola’s team take on AC Milan or neighbours Inter as the big favourites in the June 10 final.

Real, as champions of Europe, will obviously have something to say and knocked City out at the same final-four stage last season, but the way City are playing has left United supporters contemplating the prospect of their cherished treble no longer being unique.

It is a sight those in the red half of Manchester desperately do not want to see, and it has almost snuck up on us this season because of the way City have come from behind in the Premier League. When they lost 1-0 at Tottenham in February, Pep Guardiola’s men were five points behind leaders Arsenal having played a game more. United were only three points further back.

Even more recently, Arsenal opened up an eight-point gap, but their three straight draws and City’s six wins in a row mean momentum is with the champions now as those sides prepare to meet at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday, and that has created a sense United may need to be the ones to stop only the second treble of major trophies in English football history.

Setting the tone for the weeks ahead, manager Erik ten Hag was asked about it three times in his post-match press conference after the semi-final nail-biter against Brighton. He was clearly well-versed on the topic. “I understand the feeling from the Man United fans about it,” he said. “We will do everything to give them that. We will give everything. More than 100 per cent you can’t do. The fans can rely on that.”

He reflected on United’s 2-1 win over City at Old Trafford in January. “We can do it because we proved it,” Ten Hag said. “But it is not an easy job, they are a great team. But we also have a great team, we can beat them. We have to play the perfect game. The key? I don’t tell you. I keep that for myself.”

There is an argument that the cup final will be the most important Manchester derby in history if the treble is still there for City. There was the game at Old Trafford in April 1974 when City won and United got relegated to the Second Division, although that result on its own was not definitive.

The 2011 FA Cup semi-final, also at Wembley, served as a marker for the dominance City would go on to enjoy and had tens of thousands of fans travelling down to London contributing to a fierce atmosphere in the stands and on the streets. The league game in the April of the 2011-12 season at the Etihad, when Vincent Kompany scored the winner to ignite City’s attempt to claim their first Premier League title, was a seismic moment, too.

But this match, given the historical resonance, might surpass them all.

As far as meaningful FA Cup finals go, it is tough to think of comparisons. The 1986 version between Liverpool and Everton came at a time when both teams were vying for the league title. Liverpool finished two points ahead of their neighbours, then beat them 3-1 at Wembley the following weekend to secure their first double.

Ten years later, United faced Liverpool in the final and became the first team to do the double-double by winning through Eric Cantona’s late goal.

There have been similar circumstances to now, however.

In 1977, United faced Liverpool, who had won the league already and had a European Cup final four days later. United won 2-1 and it would deny Liverpool English football’s first treble, given they went on to beat Borussia Monchengladbach 3-1 in Rome.

To explain how rare such occasions are, that was one of only three times in the 68 years since competitive continental football began that an English team has reached the final in both the FA Cup and European Cup and also finished first or second in the league. United were first to achieve it in 1999 and then Liverpool did it last season. The thought of their rivals down the M62 replicating their special achievement was scary enough for United fans to contemplate, but their role in potentially preventing City doing the same raises the stakes to new levels.

There is an echo of how United came from behind to stop City from clinching the league in a derby at the Etihad in April 2018, wiping away a chance for the blue half to crow for eternity. This would be an even bigger opportunity for City to strike a deep, lasting wound.

They have been close in recent years, winning the league and FA Cup in 2019, losing in the Champions League’s last eight. Two years later, only Chelsea denied City, first in the FA Cup semis and then the Champions League final. Last season, City won the title and got to the semi-finals of the FA Cup and Champions League, where they were beaten by Liverpool and Madrid respectively.

Given City’s spending and structure, helmed by Guardiola’s genius, this has almost felt inevitable. United fans will cling to that, claiming their original treble was instead incredible, a sequence of high-pressure games where victory in all was massively against the odds.

But that would be a pained argument to make.

United want to be one of one when it comes to three.

It is now in their hands to make it so.