Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders Feb. 5: Take the under and Marner to score

The Toronto Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders in their first game back after the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: The Maple Leafs carry a three-game winning streak into Monday's game against the Islanders, who have lost three straight. Taking into account the rust factor from an extended break, I'm taking the under as my best bet. This shouldn't pose an issue for Mitch Marner, however, who holds value to score.

NHL oddsas of 1:42 p.m. ET on 02/04/2024.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Islanders

Best Bet: Under 6.5 (-109)

Both of these teams entered the all-star break with a string of low-scoring games.

Each of the Leafs' last three wins has gone under this number, and Toronto allowed only three goals over that span. Zooming out further, nine of the Leafs' last 14 games have gone under 6.5 goals.

Part of this is due to key performances from Ilya Samsonov, who continues to build an impressive comeback. Samsonov has won each of his past three starts, boasting a 0.98 goals-against average and a .960 save percentage in the process.

While the Islanders' goaltending has been about average this season, New York's team SV% is .910 over its last four games. Semyon Varlamov has played a significant role so far, holding a 2.88 GAA and .914 SV% over 16 games played.

NHL oddsas of 1:27 p.m. ET on 01/26/2024.

New York's power play has been a bigger area of concern lately, managing to score on just six of its last 28 powerplay opportunites. The Islanders have also scored only seven goals in their last four games in Toronto, losing three of those four contests.

Key stat: The Islanders average the eighth-lowest goals per game (2.90) in the NHL.

Quick pick

Marner anytime goalscorer (+155): Marner is one of the few players who shouldn't be affected by rust on Monday.

The winger was one of Toronto's four all-star representatives, and he finished with two goals on Saturday. While Marner has been held without a goal in the last three regular season games, he faces an ideal matchup to find the back of the net against the Islanders.

Marner has scored in half of his career games against New York, notching nine goals and nine assists over 18 outings. With 20 goals already this season, look for Marner to end his scoring drought on Monday and start the second half of the season out right.