Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction: NHL odds, picks Thursday, Apr. 6

We have a Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction as two of the Eastern Conference‘s best teams meet for the fourth time this season.

Toronto stole a game from Boston in early November, but everything changed after that moment.

The Bruins turned into the best team in hockey, earning the President’s Trophy and taking two games from Toronto along the way.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs managed a 100-point season and will almost certainly face the Lightning in the first round of the playoffs.

However, it still feels like they fell short of expectations, finishing with the Conference’s fifth-best record. 

So, this is a low-stakes game for both teams, and I’m betting that puts some value on the underdog. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins odds

Moneyline: Maple Leafs (+130) vs. Bruins (-155)

Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-205) vs. Bruins -1.5 (+170)

Total: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins prediction

(7 p.m. ET. ESPN+)

At this point, we don’t know who will be playing or not for the Bruins.

Brad Marchand has been sitting out games, Taylor Hall is dealing with an injury, and David Krejci has been on and off the ice. 

Coach Jim Montgomery is looking to rest players when he can, especially ones dealing with injuries.

For example, Conor Ryan of Boston.com tweeted that neither Krejci nor Hall will be playing tonight.  

That said, the Bruins are still 10-1-1 over their past 12 games.

The Bruins are incredibly deep, so their third and fourth lines often compete with opposing top lines.  

However, I’m not sure if that applies to the Maple Leafs. 

The Leafs have flaws, but Evolving Hockey ranks Toronto’s forward group as the best in the NHL.

Auston Matthews, Willian Nylander, Mitch Marner, and John Tavares spearhead an offense that’s seventh in even-strength expected goals this season, per Money Puck. 

Plus, the Leafs should get Ryan O’Reilly back in the lineup on Thursday after a 14-game injury absence (finger), although that’s not confirmed. 

And, sure, the Leafs don’t have much to play for, either.

However, low stakes in late-season NHL games often introduce a wider array of variance, almost as if anything can happen. 

I like taking the underdog either way in a high-variance hockey game, and I particularly like betting on a dangerous Toronto offense in a high-variance situation.

The Leafs are a great ML value bet at (+130). 

Additionally, we know Toronto’s top goalie (by goals saved above expected) will be in the net, as David Alter of SI.com reported Ilya Samsanov is the projected starter.

Meanwhile, Ryan of Boston.com reported that Boston’s backup goalie (by the same metric), Jeremy Swayman, will start. 

Betting on the NHL?

So, the Leafs surprisingly have a slight goaltending advantage on Thursday. 

Between the personnel matchups, goaltending matchups, and situation, I can’t pass up the Maple Leafs ML (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook. 

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins pick

Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+130) at Caesars Sportsbook