Mariners-Rays prediction, odds, pick, how to watch

The Seattle Mariners are on the road to begin a four game set with the Tampa Bay Rays Thursday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Mariners-Rays prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.

The Mariners have been on fire for the last half of the season. They had 20+ wins in August, and they have risen to be just one game back of the Houston Astros in the American League West division. With their rise, the Mariners do hold the second Wild Card spot by 1.5 games, so each game they play is going to be important. Seattle was just in Cincinnati for a three game series, but they lost two of three. The Mariners end the season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Texas Rangers twice, the Houston Astros, and this series with the Rays. Needless to say, their September schedule is not easy. Seattle will need to be at their best if they want to keep their spot in the playoffs.

The Rays are chasing the Baltimore Orioles for the top seed in the American League. Tampa Bay is 3.5 games back in the division, but they do have the second best record in the American League. If the Rays do not catch the Orioles, they would drop all the way to the fourth seed and potentially not have home field advantage for the entire playoffs. Tampa Bay is playing well, though. They have won seven of their last 10 games, and they are coming off a series win in Boston. The Rays, like the Mariners, do not have an easy September. Tampa Bay needs to win a majority of their games this month if they want to catch the Orioles.

Luis Castillo will get the ball for the Mariners while Zach Littell starts for the Rays.

Here are the Mariners-Rays MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Mariners-Rays Odds

Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+132)

Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-160)

Over: 8 (-106)

Under: 8 (-114)

How To Watch Mariners vs. Rays

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TV: Root Sports Northwest, Bally Sports Sun

Stream: MLB TV subscription

Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT

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Why The Mariners Could Cover The Spread

Luis Castillo has consistently been the ace for the Mariners all season. He has a 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, a .214 oBA, and a K/9 of 9.72. He has been prone to giving up the big game here and there, but he always bounces back. Castillo is coming off an outing in which he gave up five runs in five innings, so if history repeats itself, Castillo should be able to have a good game in this one. In the starts following an outing in which he gave up four total runs or more, Castillo has is 4-2 in 36 2/3 innings pitched, he has allowed just 26 hits, struck out 43, walked 10, and his ERA is 1.72. Castillo does an incredible job at bouncing back after rough outing, and this one should be no different.

Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread

Littell has been just average for the Rays this season, but he has been better as a starter. Littell started the season off as a reliever before moving into the starting role, so he has made just 10 starts this season. In his starts, Littell has a better oBA, a better ERA, and he has 35 strikeouts to only three walks. Littell has been solid as a starts, and the Rays could really use him in this game. Littell did pitch a scoreless inning with two strikeout against the Mariners back in July, but that was out of the bullpen. However, if he can go five or six innings of two or three runs, the Rays will be able to cover the spread.

Tampa Bay has seen Castillo already this season. It ended up being one of the starts in which Castillo gave up four or more runs. The Rays scored six runs (four earned) on seven hits, and they hit two home runs off Castillo in that game. They seemed to have seen the ball well off him back in July, and it should only get easier at home in this one. If the Rays can get to Castillo again, they will win this game.

Final Mariners-Rays Prediction & Pick

One final note is that the Mariners have won each of Castillo's last seven starts. They are confident with him on the mound, and he is always keeping the Mariners in a position to win. I also like Castillo a lot more than Littell here. Both teams are good, and both teams have something to play for. However, I am going to take the Mariners to cover the spread and win this game.

Final Mariners-Rays Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5 (+132), Under 8 (-114)