Mariners vs. Rays Thursday MLB probable pitchers, odds: Luis Castillo likely only player who can catch Gerrit Cole for AL Cy Young Award

Thursday's MLB schedule is a light six-game slate, featuring the start of a huge series at Tropicana Field between the Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays in a possible AL Wild Card preview. The M's are -130 favorites per the SportsLine Consensus behind ace Luis Castillo, who appears to be the only pitcher with a chance to catch the Yankees' Gerrit Cole for the AL Cy Young Award.

Cole is the -300 favorite at DraftKings to win his first Cy Young, but his Yankees team is basically out of playoff contention (albeit playing much better lately) and some voters could penalize Cole for that. That's not the case for Castillo, who is +400 to win the Cy Young in his first full season in the American League. He was acquired at the 2022 trade deadline from Cincinnati, a costly move for the Mainers in minor-league talent. The return was led by infielder Noelvi Marte, who is now in the majors with the Reds and one of their top prospects.

It was worth it, as the M's were able to sign the 30-year-old Castillo to five-year, $108 million contract extension late last season to remain in Seattle through the peak of his career. This year, the right-hander is 11-7 with a 3.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 183 strikeouts. The wins are 11th in the AL, the ERA fourth the WHIP tied for first and the strikeouts fourth.

Cole is better in all those categories except WHIP (he's at 1.05) and in opponents' batting average, as Castillo leads AL starters at .214 and Cole is second at .217.

Last week, Castillo was under +300 but struggled against Mets on Saturday, allowing five runs and eight hits with only two strikeouts. He was lucky to get a no-decision and hasn't personally lost since July 14. Castillo has never been the Cy Young favorite this year but has hung around and stayed healthy, which former favorites like Jacob deGrom and Shane McClanahan were unable to do.

Castillo has only faced the Rays twice in his career and doesn't have a decision with a 3.76 ERA. He took a no-decision in Seattle on July 2, allowing four earned over six. For Thursday, he's set at over/under 6.5 strikeouts, 2.5 earned runs, 17.5 outs recorded, 4.5 hits, 1.5 walks and is +115 to win.

Seattle has had two Cy Young winners: Randy Johnson in 1995 and Felix Hernandez in 2010. The Big Unit is a Hall of Famer and Hernandez might be someday. He was inducted into the Mariners' Hall of Fame earlier this year, the 11th such member.

No other AL pitcher this year is under +1300 to win the Cy Young, so it's definitely a two-man race. 

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