Mark Madden: Penguins will go only as far as their stars take them
As the Pittsburgh Penguins prepare to open the NHL season with a matchup between the league’s longtime face and the league’s presumed new face, it’s hard to say how the Penguins will do.
Erik Karlsson’s arrival should see them make the playoffs.
The Penguins could finish as high as second in the Metropolitan Division. That’s the best-case scenario, perhaps a bit of a reach.
They could win a playoff series. Doing that could make adrenaline and experience kick in, and they could go on a run. That’s the dream scenario.
But the Penguins will be the Penguins. That’s 100% certain.
Since Mario Lemieux hit town in 1984, evolution has made the franchise’s attacking gene dominant. The Penguins go forward. They take great risk, now more than ever with Karlsson on defense. It won’t always work but will almost always be exciting.
The clock might be ticking on all that. The latest incarnation of the Penguins’ superstar circus is aging out.
But that approach triggers no complaint.
The score of their last exhibition game was a 7-4 victory. A lot more of that would be welcome. That’s how the Penguins play. It’s in their DNA.
I’ve long campaigned for the Penguins to be more defensive, even trap, based on score and situation. Depending on foe. That’s not going to happen, especially not after getting Karlsson. No lead will be safe, whether it’s held by the Penguins or the opposition.
Mike Sullivan guarantees that. His players only want to play one way. Sullivan only wants to coach that way.
Sullivan will be employed until the Sidney Crosby/Kris Letang/Evgeni Malkin era expires. It’s a players’ team, and the core three doesn’t want to break in a new coach at this stage in their careers.
That leaves president of hockey ops/GM Kyle Dubas in a slightly awkward position. Sullivan isn’t his coach. But Dubas has pristinely navigated choppy waters since his hire and should continue to do so.
Every time you doubt Dubas, look on the ice. Mikael Granlund, Jeff Petry and Jan Rutta aren’t out there.
The Penguins pack plenty of doubt, not least in goal.
Re-upping Tristan Jarry was reasonable given the options, even at a big ticket.
But after seven seasons with the Penguins, including three as the primary starter, Jarry still isn’t 100% proven. He has never won a playoff series. It’s hard to pinpoint his exact weakness. But whatever it is Jarry has never had, he still hasn’t got. He too often looks clumsy, not least in big situations.
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic is interesting. His rookie year with Carolina, 2020-21, was better than any season Jarry’s had: 1.90 goals-against average, .932 save percentage. His subsequent seasons weren’t and have included time in the minors.
But Sullivan would never turn to Nedeljkovic as the starter barring serious injury to Jarry.
Much about the Penguins is cut and dried.
The top six has star power but no depth. Nobody can easily ascend from the bottom six in case of injury.
The bottom six has been almost totally reconstructed and is better than last year’s. Can center Lars Eller, at 34, handle third-line minutes (plus penalty-kill duty) on a nightly basis? Can Drew O’Connor be the bottom-six winger who scores more than expected?
The top two defense pairs are excellent and good fits: Letang with Ryan Graves and Karlsson with Marcus Pettersson. The bottom pair will play token minutes.
We will discuss the power play all season. It can’t underachieve. Here’s betting it does, especially at season’s start when it’s in the “keep everybody happy” stage. (Not everybody will be happy, though.)
The Penguins should prosper in three-on-three overtime because of the presence of Letang and Karlsson. One figures to always be on the ice. Skilled, mobile defensemen provide a decided advantage.
But the Penguins haven’t prioritized perfecting three-on-three. Malkin still doesn’t seem to know how to play it.
Jarry is rotten at shootouts. The Penguins don’t appear to have a specialist thereof, preferring to let their stars shoot. That’s a shame and a hole in the roster.
It doesn’t matter who plays fourth-line wing. They don’t need to be 200-foot players. They need to be able to do one thing, like kill penalties or take shootouts. Erik Christensen and Jussi Jokinen got the Penguins lots of points via shootouts during their days as Penguins.
But really, previewing the Penguins is simple: They will go as their stars go.
Crosby, Letang, Malkin and now Karlsson need to stay healthy and perform as their massive talent dictates.
If they don’t, nothing else can substitute. That’s how it’s always been.
