Mavericks vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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01 March 2024

Mavericks vs Celtics Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Boston Celtics are one of the hottest teams in the NBA having won nine straight, and Kristaps Porzingis has been a big reason why. Tonight, against the Mavericks, our NBA picks are fading the Unicorn and taking his point total under.

Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks will make the trip to TD Garden on Friday, as they take on Jayson Tatum and the Boston Celtics, and we've found our best bet for this matchup using the latest NBA odds.

The Dallas Mavericks facing the Boston Celtics brings several revenge angles to the table, with Kyrie Irving playing in Boston where he spent two seasons, and Kristaps Porzingis taking on his former team in the Mavericks.

One of these players makes up our best bet, but it might not be the angle you expect us to take in this matchup.

Read on to see my free NBA picks for Mavericks vs. Celtics on Friday, March 1st.

Mavericks vs Celtics odds

Mavericks vs Celtics predictions

The injury report for the Boston Celtics doesn't involve any key players, and for the Dallas Mavericks, Luka Doncic is the only player in question, but he was present at shootaround. I was discussing this with Joe Osborne on Before You Bet on Friday. As we approach the stretch run in the NBA season, these Western Conference teams can't afford to sit out any of their players for load management—the standings are way too tight.

When the Mavericks take on the Celtics on Friday, we have some revenge angles at play for several key players, including Kyrie Irving and Kristaps Porzingis. My best bet is on Porzingis, but I'm going Under on his points total of 21.5 points. It's easy to sell an over with the revenge angle at play, but I think this number might be slightly too high for the defense the Mavericks now bring to the table.

If the Celtics are going to win the NBA Finals, Porzingis is going to play a major role in this. He brings something different to the lineup that they haven't had on the offensive end in the past few seasons. The problem for Friday's matchup with the Mavericks is that the Mavericks have two bigs who can defend Porzingis.

Dereck Lively will get the start and be the primary defender on Porzingis, and not only can the 7'1" rookie protect the rim against Porzingis, but he can also meet him on the perimeter and defend his three-point shooting. The Mavericks also have more than Lively who can defend Porzingis; the 6'10" Daniel Gafford can also meet Porzingis at the rim and take away easy looks in the paint.

If Porzingis was playing the Mavericks when Lively was out with a broken nose and Gafford was still wearing a Washington Wizards jersey, this would be a much different story. But the Mavericks have two rim protectors who can guard Porzingis and move their feet with him on the perimeter.

The offensive advantage for the Celtics will be attacking the perimeter defenders on the Mavericks with Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White—that is the weak point of the Mavericks' defense. I don't see this as a Porzingis game, even though he will be fired up to play his old team. It'll be more advantageous for the Celtics to run actions that create mismatches for their wing players than feeding Porzingis.

Porzingis is projected to score 20.5 points on Friday against the Mavericks, which means we can price the Under 21.5 points at -138, but it is available at BetRivers at -121. It's only a small edge, but many of the props in this matchup between the Mavericks and Celtics are priced pretty accurately.

My best bet: Kristaps Porzingis Under 21.5 points (-121 at BetRivers)

Mavericks vs Celtics same-game parlay

Kristaps Porzingis Under 21.5 points

Kristaps Porzingis Over 7.5 rebounds

Jrue Holiday Over 11.5 points

I'm taking the Under on Porzingis' points, but give me the Over on his rebounds for our SGP. One thing about Lively and Gafford is that they aren't going to drift out to the corner to shoot three-pointers on offense. They are going to consistently hang out around the dunker's spot as a lob threat, which will keep Porzingis around the rim for rebounds.

I highlighted in our best bet why I think Porzingis will go Under his points total against the Mavericks, but just because the Mavericks have two players who can guard Porzingis, it doesn't mean the Celtics are a good matchup for their defense. The amount of offensive firepower on the wings and in the backcourt for the Celtics will be a nightmare for the Mavericks' defense.

The Celtics will always be able to find a matchup advantage against the Mavericks, and I think a lot of the time that could be Jrue Holiday. With his points total trading at 11.5, he is the Celtics player I would look to target for an Over on their points prop. Brown, Tatum, and White will also have advantages all night, but their props are trading pretty close to the number you would expect them to trade at.

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Mavericks vs Celtics spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as an 8-point favorite at FanDuel, and while they did touch as high as a 10-point favorite, we are now seeing the spread trade at Celtics -9. With resistance coming from the market once the Celtics went up to -10, expect this number to close at Celtics -9.

The total opened at DraftKings at 238.5 and has fallen a point to 237.5. We did see this number drop as low as 235 at DraftKings, but it was immediately bet up to 237, which is very telling. With the injury reports looking pretty clean for the Mavericks and Celtics, the total and spread look like they have settled into the numbers you should expect to see them close at.

Mavericks vs Celtics betting trend to know

The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+17.60 Units / 36% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Celtics.

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