Melbourne Cup 2023: A dummy’s guide to losing money in the Melbourne Cup

I’ve been betting on the Melbourne Cup for two decades, and in that time, I’ve become an expert at picking a loser. Or, to be more exact, really good at failing to pick a winner.

And not just the winning horse - a winning bet. I haven’t even picked a place. 21 years, hundreds of dollars, countless bets, not one punt bringing home a dividend (I can’t even win the family sweepstake, with my 8-year-old son a two-time defending champion).

So I’m passing on my lack of wisdom and the possible places where I’m going wrong in making my picks on race day. Follow these steps, and you may have a better chance of winning money.

Every year, I spend hours scanning the form chart, reading articles and studying up on each one of the horses in the field. How the horse has performed recently, the history of the jockey, their previous form at Flemington, whether the horse had a good night sleep - all key to making my picks.

It’s obviously never paid off. This year, I’m just picking a name I like. Saves time.

During that research time, at some point I’ll consider putting money on every horse in the field. So when the winner crosses the line, I’m left thinking, ‘Gold Trip, yes, I was going to put money on that one!’ Never fails. Just pick one and stick with it.

Since I’m the “sports” guy in the office, I often get asked for advice on Cup day. Due to my losing streak, I’m aware of leading people in the wrong direction, but a few years ago a couple of colleagues pushed me for a pick. I said Americain. They went with my tip and the horse went on to win. I, of course, didn’t put money on Americain.

I never pick the favourite because I consider it being the “easy” option. But a favourite horse has won the Melbourne Cup 32 times out of 163 races - that’s 19.6 per cent of the time. I’d take one win every five years over none in 21 years... and we’ve had just one favourite that has won in the last 19 years. We’re due for a favourite to win.

Or look at it this way... four out of five times, that favourite doesn’t win.

In 2004 and 2005, I didn’t pick Makybe Diva because I have a theory that’s it’s such a massive race, surely no horse can win it twice in a row, or even three times straight. I didn’t back a back-to-back to go back-to-back-to-back. I was wrong.

I’m not that inept, but it happens. Remember it’s meeting seven, race seven.

The only time I do pick one of the top three horses, it just happens to be in a trifecta where the two other horses finish well off the pace. Either box or avoid all trifectas.

Everyone in the office is a racing expert on Melbourne Cup day and that continues on to X (formerly Twitter), where a large percentage of the people I follow feel the need to declare who they are backing. It fills my feed with a wide range of bets that sway my opinion.

They have produced just one winner. Barriers five and 11 have seen the most winners - nine.

Because I have $5 for a win. It took me two seconds to decide, and I’m sticking with it. If I’m true to form, the horse will lead for a large chunk of the race before finishing at the back of the pack. That’s a dead cert.