College Basketball: Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship

Miami vs. Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Odds

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28 November 2023

Miami vs. Kentucky Prediction, Picks & Odds

A pair of talented teams are set to clash on Tuesday when Kentucky welcomes Miami to town for a marquee matchup, so let's dive in with our best Miami-Kentucky prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

While Feast Week has come and gone, there are still plenty of marquee non-conference matchups scheduled in the coming weeks. Tuesday night's showdown between No. 8 Miami (5-0) and No. 12 Kentucky (5-1) will be the main attraction as part of the 2023 ACC/SEC Challenge.

Fresh off a 91-83 victory against Kansas State in the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship, the Hurricanes are carrying momentum into their next matchup. On the other hand, Kentucky has bounced back impressively, securing three consecutive wins after a neutral-site loss to Kansas in the Champions Classic, showcasing resilience and a strong recovery from their early setback.

To accompany our college basketball best bets, here is our best Miami-Kentucky prediction for Tuesday's ACC/SEC Challenge (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Miami vs. Kentucky prediction

Under 164 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In the old days, this would have been a prime opportunity to lay the points with Kentucky. Miami might be undefeated to start the year and coming off a midseason tournament victory, but this team is going to get hit with some regression very soon.

The Hurricanes are shooting 9% better than expected from 3-point range and 7% better than expected at the rim through five games, according to ShotQuality. But opposing teams should be shooting 7% better beyond the 3-point line against Miami based on the quality of shots. ShotQuality is also giving Miami an 0-5 ATS record based on its post-game grading system.

Of course, none of this means regression will necessarily hit in this contest. But it does help explain why the market has been pushing this spread from Kentucky -5 to -7 at our best sports betting apps, removing any value when taking a side. However, I do think the total is too high based on some small-sample shooting from both teams.

Much has been made about the Wildcats' new offensive philosophy, which appears to be more modern than usual. But I'm not as certain that's a sign of John Calipari adapting. Instead, it's a product of Kentucky's favorable schedule to start the season and limited frontcourt depth. Also, the Wildcats are shooting 6% better than expected from distance, per ShotQuality.

My projected total for this game is closer to 160, and this Under becomes even more enticing if it comes down to the wire. ShotQuality projects a total of 157.9, which would give us even more wiggle room on the current total.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

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Miami vs. Kentucky best odds

This total is as high as 164.5 at some of our best sports betting sites, but you would need to pay more vig to take the Under. That's not worth it based on our projection, which is why there's no issue with placing this wager at Caesars right away.

For what it's worth, Pinnacle (a sharp book worth keeping an eye on to monitor potential movement) is offering -117 for the Under on 164 in this game. I wouldn't be surprised if more recreational books soon follow suit.

Miami vs. Kentucky odds

Kentucky opened as a 4.5-point favorite at FanDuel before that line was quickly bet to as high as -7. Meanwhile, the total hasn't moved as much while mostly hovering around 164 and 164.5 across our best sportsbooks.

Miami is 4-1 against the spread and 4-1 to the Over in 2023. Kentucky is 3-3 ATS with a 4-2 record to the Over.