Milwaukee Bucks Win Total Over/Under 2023: Should you bet over or under 55.5 after Damian Lillard trade?
After landing NBA superstar point guard Damian Lillard in a blockbuster three-team trade on Wednesday, the Bucks have jumped to the top of pretty much all the futures boards of every sportsbook. Perhaps most notably, the over/under on their regular season win total has skyrocketed to 56.5 before moving back to 55.5 a few hours later on FanDuel.
For context, that's four wins more than the sportsbook lists for the reigning-champion Denver Nuggets. It's a whopping 10more Ws than FanDuel projects for the defending Eastern Conference-champion Miami Heat, whom Lillard initially listed as his preferred trade destination.
The Celtics, who won the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals, have the second-highest regular season over/under on FanDuel at 54.5. The Suns, who landed Jusuf Nurkic and Nasir Little, among others, in the three-team deal, are listed at 52.5.
Last season, the only two teams to finish with over 55 wins were the Bucks (58-24) and Celtics (57-25). The Heat needed just 53 wins to finish as the East's No. 1 seed two seasons ago.
At first glance, the power dynamic in the NBA seems to have shifted back to the East, but in reality, the Bucks' and Celtics' high win total over/unders might be partly due to the West being deeper as a whole. Western Conference teams comprise four of the six shortest NBA Championship odds. Only three Eastern Conference teams crack the top nine in the Finals futures boards.
Do the Bucks make for a smart bet on the OVER of 55.5 wins in 2023-24 now that Giannis has Dame running the point? Let's briefly discuss the updated regular season win total odds and make some betting advice following this Wednesday afternoon NBA blockbuster.
2023-24 NBA regular season win total odds
Displaying only the top 12 teams and their over/under win total odds
Now let's take a look at the updated NBA Championship odds for this coming season.
2023-24 NBA Championship Odds
Showing only the 15 teams with +5000 odds or shorter
What the win total and championship odds tell us
Fascinating stuff. As we surmised, oddsmakers clearly believe the West will have much more parity than the East — at least at the top of the standings. Listing the Celtics with the two highest win projections leads us to believe that sportsbooks expect the upper-echelon teams in the Western Conference to beat up on each other, while the powerhouses of the East dominate their in-conference opponents.
However, some other forces might be influencing the linemaking here. The Bucks and Celtics, as we already mentioned, have been two of the more active teams in the trade market this offseason. Milwaukee, especially, has the power of recency bias behind it. The natural gut reaction from most bettors is to pound the OVER when a team comes out on the winning end of a blockbuster trade, never mind when that team is only a few seasons removed from an NBA title. The Bucks are the bet right now in the eyes of the common fan, so FanDuel was able to shoot high with the number.
So, is there value in betting Milwaukee's UNDER? Let's discuss.
Should you bet the Bucks' OVER of 55.5 wins?
Millions of everyday fans have probably already raced to their preferred sportsbook to place bets on Milwaukee's OVER. Right after reacting to the Twitter-bombs or X-posts or tweets — or whatever you kids call it these days — the next thought in most bettors' minds is "What does this mean for the Bucks' chances at winning the regular season and championship?" Massive breaking news like this doesn't just generate a ton of social media activity — it also bumps up sports betting action in a major way.
The savvy bettors will be doing one of two things: either sitting back and waiting for the smoke to clear or pounding the UNDER. Hype almost always translates to large numbers because the majority of bettors psychologically prefer betting an OVER and rooting for something to happen rather than rooting for something to not happen. The real value — especially after breaking news and hype trains (or in this case, locomotives) — is in the UNDER.
Look at things logically. 56 wins amounts to a .683 winning percentage. Last year, the Bucks and Celtics became the first Eastern Conference teams since the 2019-20 season to finish with at least a .683 winning percentage (the Bucks finished with 58 wins, the Celts 57). Those two years prior, the No. 1 seeds in the East finished with a .646 winning percentage and .681 winning percentage, respectively. In the Covid-altered '19-20 season, the Bucks (.767) and Raptors (.736) were both well above that mark, though.
The Bucks must also develop chemistry with their new core, one that has taken a big step backward defensively. Jrue Holiday is one of the best defensive point guards in the NBA, while Damian Lillard is one of the worst. Even with perennial All-Defensive talents like Giannis and Brook Lopez, starting Dame, Malik Beasley, and Khris Middleton on the perimeter is going to lead to a lot of points allowed.
The Bucks are also old, injury-prone, and nowhere near as deep as they were in their title run a few seasons ago. Lillard is 33 and has averaged just 43.5 games the past two seasons (though he likely could've played more last year if the Blazers weren't tanking). Middleton is 32 and has averaged 49.5 games in that same span, while the bruising, physical Giannis hasn't been a ton better with his average of 65 regular season games since the start of 2021-22.
If this Milwaukee team is relying on 35-year-old BroLo to be an iron man — or a rather unproved TyTy Washington to be the backup and fill-in point guard when Dame gets dinged up — 56 wins is going to be a dream. We're not just fading the hype because we're grumpy old men — we're fading the hype because this is a large number, and there are far too many reasons the Bucks won't get there and not enough reasons they will get there.
You can screenshot us and call us out on Twitter later if you want, Bucks fans, but professional bettors know the only action to take on Milwaukee's win total prop of 55.5 is UNDER. "Fearing the Deer" might be back in style next postseason, but we doubt this squad will be gunning for a regular-season crown. Think rationally and take the value while it's there.
