Minnesota Football vs. Illinois preview and score prediction
Illinois (3-5) vs. Minnesota (5-3)
TV: BTN // Connor Onion (PXP), Matt Millen (Analyst), Elise Menaker (Reporter)
Series: Minnesota Leads 40-32-3
Last game: Minnesota lost 26-14 in Champaign (10/15/2022)
Vegas betting line: Minnesota (-2) with a 42.5 O/U
Weather Report: 43 degrees and a light south wind
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1. Tied for first in the Big Ten West and having won two games in a row, Minnesota (5-3, 3-2 B1G) closes out a two-game homestand Saturday as it welcomes in Illinois (3-5, 1-4 B1G) to Minneapolis. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. on Big Ten Network.
2. Saturday marks the 100th game in the 15-year history of Huntington Bank Stadium. The facility opened in 2009 and saw Minnesota defeat Air Force, 20-13, in its first game on Sept. 12. In total, the Golden Gophers have posted a 61-38 record at the stadium, including a 29-14 mark since P.J. Fleck took over in 2017. The Gophers have had a winning record at home in each of the last six full seasons played and 10 times overall (excluding this year), including a program-best 6-1 record in 2014, 2016 and 2019.
3. Jordan Nubin was named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after his standout performance in Saturday's 27-12 victory against Michigan State. Entering the game with 15 career rushing attempts for 51 yards, he rushed 40 times for 204 yards and two touchdowns against the Spartans. His 204 yards are also the 28th most in program history and 18th most this season in the FBS. Nubin's 40 carries set a Huntington Bank Stadium record and tied for the seventh most in program history. For further context, no other player in the country this year has more than 34 carries in a game. On Saturday, he had four carries of 10 yards or more, which included a careerlong of 19 yards and an 18-yard touchdown run. Nubin rushed 18 timed for 79 yards in the first half and followed with 22 carries for 125 yards and two touchdowns in the second half. He is the first Gopher to be named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week since Mohamed Ibrahim on Nov. 21, 2022.
4. Since 2021, Minnesota has seen seven different running backs combine for 26 100-yard rushing games: Mohamed Ibrahim (10), Ky Thomas (5), Mar'Keise Irving (3), Trey Potts (3), Darius Taylor (3), Jordan Nubin (1) and Bryce Williams (1). Ibrahim (2) and Nubin (1) have also combined for three 200-yard games. Within the Big Ten, only Michigan State and Nebraska (five each) have had more than four different 100-yard rushers since 2021. In addition, Michigan joins Minnesota as the only teams to have multiple 200-yard rushers in that same time span
5. The 2023 campaign is the seventh for head coach P.J. Fleck at Minnesota, where his record is 49-30. He is fifth in program history for overall wins, Big Ten wins (29) and games coached (79). Fleck's .620 win percentage is third best among Minnesota coaches with at least 45 games under their helm behind only Henry L. Williams (.786, 1900-21) and Bernie Bierman (.716, 1932-41, ‘45-50). In his 11th season overall as a college head coach, Fleck is 79-52 (.603).
Illinois players to watch
1) #9 Luke Altmyer, quarterback:Luke Altmyer is probably the best playmaker among Big Ten West quarterbacks.
He has a really good arm and good touch on deep balls. He also is second among Big Ten quarterbacks in rushing yards and can make a lot of play with his legs (100 yards against Wisconsin). His weaknesses are mostly the weaknesses of a first-year starter. He leads the Big Ten in interceptions, though four of those came against Penn State and his lone interception of the last two games should’ve been called a pass interference. At times, he can hold onto the ball too long or try to escape the pocket too quickly, both of which can lead to sacks.
But he is a talented player who has really boosted the Illini’s vertical passing attack, despite a lack of great separation at wide receiver, and gives the running game an extra dynamic.
2) #1Isaiah Williams, slot receiver:The best skill position player for Illinois is their slot receiver, Isaiah Williams, who is having a fantastic season. He's second in the Big Ten behind this Harrison Jr. fellow at Ohio State in both receptions (46) and receiving yards (562). They will attempt to feature him in space, as that's where he really shines is yards after the catch, where he's also second in the Big Ten behind Harrison Jr.
3)#4 Jer'Zhan Newton, defensive tackle:Newton is the best interior defensive linemen in football and by far the Illini’s best player. He is a game-wrecker when given one-on-one opportunities, and when double-teamed, he opens up opportunities for others.
Keys to the game
1) Minnesota's offense needs to finally start fast
I know that Greg Harbaugh's offense put up 27 points last week against a quality Big Ten defense in Michigan State, but they have to get off to a better start offensively in November.
Minnesota is the lone power-five team to have ZERO points on their opening drive now through the first eight games of the season. Iowa State was the other team in that category with them last week, but the Cyclones scored on their first possession against Baylor. The Gophers offense has four punts and four turnovers on their first eight possessions of the game, and it'd be a great week for them to get points on Harbaugh's opening script.
Why I say that is Illinois' best player, defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton, will miss the first half of the Minnesota game because of a targeting call upheld over their bye week. He's their most disruptive player by far on defense and will be a future first-round pick in April, so getting off to a quick start must happen when their best player can't play.
The Fighting Illini defense differs from last year when they had three stud defensive backs who all went in the top 70 picks of the latest NFL draft. Their secondary hasn't been as stout, but their pass rush outside of Newton needs to be consistent, too. DT Keith Randolph will hear his name called in April, but he's been banged up of late. He's expected back for the Minnesota game, but both their outside and inside linebackers also haven't done their part.
They've collectively struggled to get pressure as Pro Football Focus ranks them 6th in the Big Ten West in pass-rush with a 69.7 grade, and within that plays a part in why, in conference play, Illinois only has one interception, which ranks last in the Big Ten.
So, if you're the Gopher offense here, getting points early against a Bret Bielema team wanting to establish the run is enormous. We'll see if either freshmen running back in Darius Taylor or Zach Evans is back for this one, but if not, I'd expect another 25-30 carries for the hero of last week's game in Jordan Nubin. I won't say any more than that, as the Gophers will be forced to go back to the Sean Tyler well. He's had issues hanging onto the ball, yes. But Minnesota will need to give someone else carries if they're going to get to the end of the season with healthy tailbacks.
And then, in theory especially in that first half, quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis should have time to throw without Newton in his face. We need to see that same signal-caller from last week's first 30 minutes, where he was 13/18 for 190 yards and that passing touchdown to Daniel Jackson. He was confident and made some impressive throws.
But figuring out a way to start fast for once will be significant if you're actually going to get off the schneid against Bielema.
2) Make Illinois beat you through the air
Whether it's been at Wisconsin or Illinois, you know what a Bret Bielema offense looks like. They've got mass in the trenches and they want to establish the run. Thankfully for Joe Rossi's defense, the Fighting Illini's best tailback from the last two years is now in the NFL in Chase Brown. He absolutely killed Minnesota the previous two seasons with over 147 yards rushing in both games, but even within those totals. In the 2021 and 2022 games against the Gophers, he had over 100 yards AFTER contact and forced ten missed tackles in both contests.
And here in 2023, there's a much different ball carrier in true freshman Kaden Feagin, probably the largest running back in the Big Ten. The Illini list him at 6-3 and 250 lbs (!!). That's Derrick Henry type of stature, and he's been the featured back in the two previous weeks before the bye with 19 and 24 carries. In a chilly November game, the Gophers will have to do what they've done the last two weeks since their bye, and that's stop the opposing running back. They limited Iowa to 33 running back yards and Michigan State to 49 yards last week, and that recipe has to remain true on Saturday.
Illinois' quarterback this year has been Ole Miss transfer Luke Altmyer, and he's been among the better transfer quarterbacks in the Big Ten. He leads Big Ten West quarterbacks with 11 "big-time throws" via Pro Football Focus, but Altmyer has also been turnover-prone. He leads the Big Ten in interceptions (9).
Some of that isn't his fault, as he's been under pressure more than any other West quarterback. Illinois offensive line has a collective pass-blocking PFF grade of 45.6, the lowest in the Big Ten.
But I'd be remiss if I didn't mention arguably Altmyer's most significant asset: his legs. He has 435 sack-adjusted rushing yards this season, which places him second among Big Ten quarterbacks. But to get even more into the weeds here, many of those have come on him just breaking the pocket and scrambling. He has 259 yards off of scrambles alone, which is over 100 yards more than the nearest quarterback. So, not allowing Altmyer to escape the pocket is crucial for Minnesota.
The best skill position player for Illinois is their slot receiver, Isaiah Williams, who is having a fantastic season. He's second in the Big Ten behind this Harrison Jr. fellow at Ohio State in both receptions (46) and receiving yards (562). They will attempt to feature him in space, as that's where he really shines is yards after the catch, where he's also second in the Big Ten behind Harrison Jr.
So to limit Illinois offensively, the Gophers need to shut down Feagin and keep Altmyer contained, and if that happens, they should have both opportunities to get off the field and make plays. But if Altmyer's legs extend drives, Williams gets explosives with yards after the catch, and Feagin is running through Gophers, Illinois can sit on the ball like Bielema teams want.
So we'll see if this Joe Rossi defense can come up big again.
3) Win in the trenches and turnover margin against a Bret Bielema coached team
Part of why PJ Fleck hasn't been able to get a win against Bielema yet is the play up front, which has also affected the turnover margin in this game the last two years. Illinois didn't commit a turnover against Minnesota in the 2021 or 2022 game, while the Gophers turned it over three times last year and twice in 2021. All of those turnovers were interceptions for Fleck's team.
Chase Brown and that offensive line controlled the clock and flow for the Illini offense, while Minnesota was put in negative game scripts against a lethal secondary.
That can't happen for a third straight year.
Minnesota's going to be able to match Illinois in the trenches, if not be a little better there. At least on paper until Newton returns, but getting pressure for both teams will be incredibly important. Both teams want to get a running game going so they don't have to rely on inconsistent passing games and quarterbacks that have been turnover-prone.
This has got to be an area where if the result on the scoreboard is going to change in Minnesota's favor, this is where it needs to start.
Prediction
So if you just scrolled down to this section to see what I said and didn't read anything else above, here's the TL:DR.
- Minnesota's offense needs to finally start fast
- Make Illinois beat you through the air
- Win in the trenches and turnover margin against a Bret Bielema coached team
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A few other notes before my prediction.
- Illinois has been bad on third down. They rank last in the Big Ten on defense, as 46.3% of third downs have been converted against them, while on offense, they're only converting at a 34.0% clip, which is 13th in the conference.
- Pro Football Focus has special teams being a mismatch on paper in favor of the Illini, as they have the second-highest PFF special teams grade in the Big Ten at 88.9, while Minnesota is still ranked dead-last at 59.2.
It'll be interesting to see how the return game impacts things, as Illinois has the lowest touchback percentage in the Big Ten, as only 35.3% of their kickoffs go for touchbacks. And we know how much of a disaster the Gopher kickoff return unit has been this season.
Illinois also has the #1 punt return unit in the Big Ten as they've returned eight punts this season, none for touchdowns, but are averaging 15.0 yards per return.
Neither Minnesota nor Illinois have been that consistent in 2023, but why I'll choose the Gophers to beat Bielema is because of how they're playing up front. The defensive line has done a great job of matching physicality and escalating it a level higher against Iowa and Michigan State over the last two weeks. And we just watched Minnesota run for 200 yards with their RB5 against a top-20 run defense in Michigan State.
If Minnesota can not get eviscerated in the turnover margin as they have in the two previous meetings, it should be a low-scoring affair. And I'll say the Gophers make enough plays to get over the hump.
