Missouri vs Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions

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11 March 2023

Missouri vs Alabama Odds, Picks, Predictions

Missouri and Alabama are both fast-paced, high-powered offenses, and while that may not have been as apparent in their regular-season meeting, our college basketball picks see the scoring holding up more on Saturday.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The first semifinal game of the 2023 SEC Tournament in Nashville, TN will see the 4-seed Missouri Tigers face off with the top-seeded Alabama Crimson Tide in Bridgestone Arena on Saturday afternoon.

Missouri proved a lot of people wrong by scoring a high number on Tennessee yet again on Friday, pulling out a 79-71 upset win. Alabama dominated their first game of the SEC Tournament defeating Mississippi State by a score of 72-49. The Crimson Tide are likely locked into a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament.

college basketball picks and predictions for Missouri vs. Alabama on Saturday, March 11 to find out.

Missouri vs Alabama best odds

Missouri vs Alabama picks and predictions

In the regular season matchup, Missouri was held to only 64 points, which is 16 points below its season average. Both teams had terrible shooting performances, as Missouri shot 32.9% from the field and a dreadful 3/28 from downtown. Alabama shot 36.8% from the field and 10/35 from deep.

That was far from typical for both programs. Mizzou shoots 47.7% from the field (30th) and 36.2% from three (71st). In its game against Tennessee, one of the best defenses in the country, it shot 52.6% from the field and 38.5% from downtown.

Alabama shoots 44.8% from the field (177th) and 33.9% from three (202nd). In its game against Mississippi State, another great defense, the Tide shot 40.3% from the field and 35.1% from deep. Both offenses are much better than what you saw in their first matchup.

KenPom grades both offenses strongly. Alabama ranks 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in adjusted tempo. Meanwhile, Missouri ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and 83rd in adjusted tempo.

The Crimson Tide rank first in the country in possessions per game at 77.0, while the Tigers rank 69th with 72.3. Alabama has a strong defense, but it still allows a ton of free throws, ranking 336th in the nation in free throw attempts allowed per game.

This game is going to be a ton of fun to watch. Missouri and Alabama will put on a show for the Nashville crowd with quick possessions, loads of threes, and plenty of fast break opportunities. This is a huge total, but I still love the Over and we could see both teams reach 80 points.

My best bet: Over 158 (-110 at Caesars)

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Missouri vs Alabama spread analysis

Missouri is one of the worst rebounding teams in the country and will be going up against one of the best. The Tigers rank 353rd in rebounding with 30.5 boards per game and 333rd in rebounds allowed at 37.3 per contest. They also rank 359th in offensive rebounds allowed at 12.9 per contest.

Mizzou got outrebounded 33-28 by Tennessee and allowed nine offensive boards in their regular-season meeting. Meanwhile, Alabama ranks first in the nation with 44.3 rebounds per game and 19th in the country with 12.6 offensive boards per contest.

The Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral-site games. The Crimson Tide are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games and 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up win. These trends are interesting, as I think this game is likely to be close.

Even with getting outrebounded, Missouri showed they can still beat tough teams when they beat Tennessee on Friday. Mizzou can still easily cover this massive spread if it shoots anywhere near its season averages. I think the Tigers keep the game within single digits.

Missouri vs Alabama Over/Under analysis

The previous matchup was very clearly well Under the total of 162.5 with only 149 total points scored. But we already mentioned how bad they shot the ball in that game. Yet, there were still almost 150 total points scored.

The Over is 8-1 in the Tigers’ last nine neutral-site games and 14-5 in their last 19 games following an ATS win. The Over is 9-2 in the Crimson Tide’s last 11 neutral-site games. Both teams showed they can shoot well in this neutral site arena in Nashville on Friday.

There are going to be lots of possessions and Alabama will also get plenty of second-chance opportunities. Missouri will do its best to get fast breaks going with its many shot opportunities as well. I love the Over here.