MLB AL West Futures Best Bets: Astros, Mariners, and Rangers
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down the hree-horse race in the AL West and how he would hedge his Houston Astros bet.
Betting the AL West Divison Race
The AL West race is heating up as three teams, the Astros (85-68), Mariners (84-68), and Rangers (84-68) are all within a 0.5 game of each other for the division crown.
This is the only division that is up for grabs and while the Astros have a favorable schedule, the Mariners and Rangers play seven of their final 10 games against one another. Anything can happen as October nears.
According to Tankathon, Seattle owns the fifth-toughest remaining strength of schedule, while Texas comes in at 13th and Houston 22nd.
Here are the remaining schedules for the Astros, Mariners, and Rangers to win the AL West with their odds as of 9/21.
Houston Astros (-110)
Three home games vs. the Kansas City Royals (9/22-9/24)Three road games at the Seattle Mariners (9/25-9/27)
Three road games at the Arizona Diamondbacks (9/29-10/1)
Seattle Mariners (+180)
Three road games at the Texas Rangers (9/22-9/24)Three home games vs. the Houston Astros (9/25-9/27)
Four home games vs. the Texas Rangers (9/28-10/1)
Texas Rangers (+350)
Three home games vs. the Seattle Mariners (9/22-9/24)Three road games at the Los Angeles Angels (9/25-9/27)
Four road games at the Seattle Mariners (9/28-10/1)
Houston owns a 46-29 record at home compared to a 39-39 record on the road this season. Luckily for Houston, they are on the road in six of the last nine games with a home series versus the Royals (51-102), who own the second-worst record in the MLB.
The Royals should be an easy sweep in theory for the Astros, while the Rangers should do the same to the Angels (69-84), who are eliminated.
While Seattle owns the second-best odds, it’s because they truly control their own destiny with 10 games remaining, all against AL West opponents in the race for the division title.
For some teams, the position Seattle finds themselves in is what postseason baseball is all about, especially since Texas is 5-1 against Seattle this season.
The fact the Rangers have a four-game homestand against the Mariners to end the season gives their +350 odds some serious value considering Texas is 47-31 at home versus 37-37 on the road.
I have a midseason bet on the Astros at +100 to win the AL West, but if I was hedging, it would be on the Rangers at +350. Seattle is 9-1 against the Astros this year, so Seattle and Texas should be closer to Houston in terms of odds.
The next week in the AL West will be a will wild and you may be able to get much better value in a day or two rather than what’s being offered now.
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