MLB betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Tuesday, April 12th

On Tuesday, April 12th, there are 15 games on the schedule. There are seven interleague games. Some teams have off day, others have a full schedule, and some players are making their second starts and others are starting for the first time.

The Mets blew a 4-0 lead and lost 5-1 to the Phillies. Taijuan Walker had nine whiffs in 14 swings and is going to have an MRI. Ranger Suarez allowed a lot of hits by mph. Alec Bohm made two errors.

Tucker Davidson gave up five runs on five hits in 2.2 innings in relief for the Braves. The Nationals had 23 at bats with RISP in the 11-2 win over Atlanta.

Giants have scored 12 runs over their first four games. The Giants were 0-for-10 with RISP in the game against Miami.

Guardians and Royals played football. Guardians won 10-7 after Sunday's 17-3 final. Royals stole three bases off of Aaron Civale and Austin Hedges. Emmanuel Clase gave up a two-run homer to Andrew Benintendi.

Red Sox and Tigers played a game on Sunday Night Baseball. Boston won the game. The Tigers had only one hit against Matt Manning. Ryan Brasier and Matt Strahm have pitched three of the last four days for the Red Sox. Luis Patino left the Rays game after 11 pitches. Paul Blackburn had 12 whiffs in 29 swings for A's.

Alek Manoah was outstanding for Toronto on Monday. He had 16 whiffs in 41 swings and gave up one hit in six innings. The Jays had 14 batted balls of 95 + mph. They were unlucky to only score three runs.

Chris Flexen allowed eight batted balls the second and third time through the lineup against the Twins. The Twins scored three runs in the fifth.

Brandon Woodruff and Victor Caratini didn't work well together last Saturday. Adrian Houser walked three over 3.2 innings yesterday. Caratsini was added before the season and didn’t have any spring training reps.

Austin Gomber's slider usage increased last season. He threw 33% sliders in his first start and had eight whiffs on 15 swings.

Winds are blowing in on the South Side of Chicago and in the Twin Cities. Winds are coming out of Anaheim and San Francisco. Dodgers/Twins game is most likely to be postponed.

Red Sox and Tigers are playing each other on Tuesday, April 12th.

Guardians and Reds are playing each other on Tuesday. The line is moving down.

Marlins are taking some money for this game against the Angels. Mike Trout is expected to be back. Patrick Sandoval is fading. Jesus Luzardo is a buy.

Royals/Cardinals is the biggest mover of the day. Dakota Hudson is getting bet against. Hudson has a career 3.14 ERA with a 4.66 FIP and only pitched 8.2 innings last season. Yesterday the game against the Pirates was postponed.

Tylor Megill's first start was outstanding. He will get a stiffer test from the Phillies today.

Matt Brash made the Seattle Mariners roster. He has only 55 innings above A-ball, but he was impressive in Cactus League action. Brashes has 150 strikeouts in his 102.2 innings of pro ball.

Patrick Sandoval had his first start pushed back because of arm fatigue. He has over a strikeout per inning and a GB% of 51.1%.

Martin Perez's contact management skills didn't work well for him last season. He saw a decline in his previous high of 39.1% in 2018. The Rangers play the Rockies on Tuesday.

Tuesday's best bets are based on a market consensus number.

Jose Quintana will start the home opener against his former team. Drew Smyly will be the other pitcher. The Pirates rank 28th in fly ball percentage this season. Cubs are the team that should be above average against left-handed pitchers. They're the underdog. Pittsburgh hasn't been outside the bottom five since 2018.

Guardians 1st 5 (-110) over Reds is a good value. Tyler Mahle is an ace in his own right, but he's not Bieber and especially not at home. The Guardians lineup is far from daunting, and they're putting a lot of balls in play. They prioritize making contact. The Reds lineup doesn't look great on paper, so avoiding the Guardians bullpen sounds good to me.

Madison Bumgarner will start for the Giants against Luis Garcia. Houston is playing the Diamondbacks. The Astros were fourth in wOBA against left-handed pitchers last season. The price is hefty, but not hefty enough. I'm tracking the picks in my Google Sheet HERE.