MLB Free Agency 2022-23: Top Players Most Likely to Be Overpaid

Eleven players have agreed to contracts worth at least $10 million per year in this year's MLB free-agency cycle. Not all of them will be worth it, and we've pinpointed the likeliest candidates to be overpaid in free agency. Justin Verlander is the first player we'll address.

Michael Conforto is a free agent. He was an All-Star in 2017 and batted .257 with 88 home runs from 2017-19. The 29-year-old missed the entire 2022 season with a shoulder injury. His .384 slugging percentage in 2021 was the worst of his seven-years career. Carlos Rodón signed a one-and-a-half-season contract with the Giants last year.

Brandon Nimmo played in 2022 and had a good season. He played more innings in center field than any other player except Myles Straw. The center-field market is dry. Nim mo is expected to get a six-year, $130 million contract.  ESPN's Jeff Passan thinks NimMo will fetch something in the vicinity of that amount.

Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson are hitting free agency. Turner is the most valuable player, but he's not on the same level as the other shortstops. Swanson deserves a big contract, and he'll get it. If Turner and Correras get $30 million per year and Swanson gets $25 million annually, it would be an overpay.

Justin Verlander is going to be 40 in February. He just won his third Cy Young title on a surgically repaired elbow. Spotrac puts his market value at $45.3 million per year. Verler turned down his $25 million player option for next season. He needs to accumulate 11 WAR over the course of his age-40 and age 41 seasons to break even on the investment. His career strikeouts are in 12th place at 3,198. The team investing 15-30 percent of its 2023 and '24 budgets in a single pitcher in his 40s could be a disaster.

Willson Contreras declined a one-year, $19.65 million qualifying offer to stay with the Chicago Cubs. He could be worth $100 million. Since the beginning of 2020, he has batted .241 with 50 home runs. He is not an elite baserunner or fielder. There are talk about him playing left field for the Houston Astros.

Jordan Lyles is available in the MLB free agency. Spotrac projects his market value at $51.8 million for three years. Lyle turned down an $11 million club option for the Orioles. He has a career ERA of 5.10 and a bWAR of negative-1.4.

Trey Mancini is available for the first time since he signed with Houston at the trade deadline. Spotrac's projected market value for him is $90.6 million for five years. He's a 30-year-old first baseman who has a .735 OPS since the beginning of 2021. Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt and Miguel Sanó are still available.

Kenley Jansen used to be the best reliever in the business, but his ERA has ballooned to 3.08 since the beginning of 2018. He's also struck out only 30.7 percent of batters faced and has a 1.05 WHIP. Jaden led the NL in saves this past season and is likely going to get a two-year, $30 million contract.