MLB Notebook: Red Sox not a trade fit for Shohei Ohtani, but free agency looms

No one knows whether the Los Angeles Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani by the Aug. 1 deadline. The Angels’ recent mini hot-streak has them back on the periphery of the wild card race, and owner Arte Moreno has been steadfast that Ohtani will not be dealt if the team has even a chance at October.

If the Angels decide to auction off Ohtani, the bidding will be fascinating. It could be argued that there’s never been a rental who’s had this much value. A team trading for Ohtani will be getting one of the handful of best run producers in the game and a Top 10 starting pitcher.

What can the Angels expect in return? It would almost be impossible to come up with a package that is too good. Again, there’s never been anyone with this much value dealt mid-season, and even though it’s a short-term rental, the impact Ohtani could have on a contender - in the standings, at the ticket office, and the merch stand - is incalculable.

From the viewpoint of the Red Sox, Ohtani makes zero sense at the deadline. To win the bidding, the Red Sox would likely have to sacrifice, at minimum, two Top 5 prospects - say, Marcelo Mayer and Ceddanne Rafaela - and Brayan Bello.

That prohibitive asking price alone should eliminate the Red Sox from contention, but just in case it doesn’t there’s also this: good as Ohtani is, he’s not going to take them from fringy contender to World Series favorite. The Red Sox aren’t positioned to go for it this year, in the way that, say, Tampa Bay, Texas, Atlanta and one or two other teams might.

Red Sox fans will have to watch Ohtani from afar, likely with another team, for the final 50 or so games this season and into the postseason.

But this winter? That could be a different story.

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And before you begin composing your angry tweet - Yeah, sure, the Red Sox can’t keep their own superstars, but they’re going to spend a half-billion or more on Ohtani?? - hear me out.

While they were either unwilling or unable to meet the asking prices for both Mookie Betts (traded) or Xander Bogaerts (free agency), the Red Sox did, of course, extend Rafael Devers to the largest contract in franchise history this past winter, signing the third baseman to a 10-year, $313.5 million deal. In terms of sheer dollars, that represents the 11th biggest contract in the game’s history.

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The Red Sox were comfortable giving Devers that amount chiefly because of his production, but also, because of his age: Devers will be just 36 in the final year of the deal. In other words, he represented both tremendous on-field value and minimized risk.

Ohtani, already age 29, represents greater risk of course. Not only is he older, but he also pitches, making him more susceptible to injury. Ohtani has already undergone Tommy John surgery.

But in the broader sense, Ohtani also offers marketing and promotional opportunities that no player in the game can match. And that’s where the Red Sox and Fenway Sports Group come in.

One of the most frequent criticisms of Red Sox ownership in recent years has been that they’ve been distracted by their other investments (Liverpool FC, Pittsburgh Penguins, Roush Racing, etc.), that they’ve been consumed with other international business interests.

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But a marriage between Ohtani and FSG would make a great deal of sense. Ohtani is the most popular baseball player in the world, known internationally. The marketing opportunities would be endless. Signing Ohtani would further the Red Sox brand across the globe and enhance the company’s other holdings.

Locally, think of what Ohtani would mean to ticket sales at Fenway or ratings for NESN. The ballpark would be sold out every night - as it was for the first decade of the current ownership’s reign. NESN numbers would spike, especially on nights when Ohtani pitched as well as hit.

Then there’s the team’s recently revealed plans to further develop the neighborhood around the ballpark - a $1.6 billion investment. Think that would be enhanced by Ohtani’s presence? Try imagining what the souvenir store might look like on a given night.

None of which is to suggest that the Red Sox are the frontrunners to land Ohtani this winter when he becomes a free agent. Most people in the game have him signing with a West Coast team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners or San Diego Padres. The New York Mets, under ambitious owner Steve Cohen, cannot be ruled out either. The twin lure of the world’s biggest city and Cohen’s seemingly bottomless resources could prove unbeatable.

The number of teams clamoring to sign Ohtani to what will undoubtedly be the largest contract not only in baseball history but likely, in any sport, is a long one. And simply wanting to land Ohtani won’t make it happen. The Red Sox will need to show an aggressiveness that, frankly, has been missing from many of their recent free agent pursuits.

But the Red Sox, precisely because of their other holdings, have the resources.

They also have a successful history with Japanese players, and pitchers in particular. Daisuke Matsuzaka continues to serve as an ambassador for his former club, extolling the virtues of playing in Fenway and in Boston. The presence of countryman Masataka Yoshida, signed for another four seasons after this one, can’t do anything but help the recruiting process.

Ohtani would transform the franchise and further burnish the Red Sox’ presence on the world stage. No longer would the Red Sox have to hear that they’re an anonymous group of largely faceless players, devoid of star power. As much as anything, he would make the Red Sox relevant - locally, nationally, internationally - for the duration of his stay.

The team that once featured the game’s first two-way player could now be home to the modern version. And the opportunities to monetize that would be limitless.

In the next two weeks, other teams will position themselves to bid for Ohtani. The Red Sox won’t - and shouldn’t - be among them. The astronomical asking price in terms of player cost, along with the club’s position in the standings, mean it doesn’t make sense. For now.

This winter, however, is a different story. On more even footing for free agency and without the need to strip-mine their player development system for a short-term boost, pursuing Ohtani makes all the sense in the world.

The Red Sox have some pieces on their major league roster that could get moved between now and the deadline, with Adam Duvall being the most likely. It’s not out of the question that Nick Pivetta could be part of a deal, too, given that his value is at an all-time high and he’s likely to earn somewhere between $8-9 million in 2024 through the salary arbitration.

But even as there’s the expectation that a number of deals could involve major league pieces - in which one trade deals from an extra of excess to fill an area of need - it’s also likely that the Sox will, at some point, have to dip into their farm system.

Obviously, a handful of players are completely off-limits. There are no circumstances under which the Red Sox would consider moving Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Miguel Bleis, Ceddanne Rafaela, Nick Yorke, Luis Perales, Mikey Romero and a few others.

The Sox have worked hard to re-stock inventory in their system and built it to the point where it’s ranked somewhere between the top half and top third in the sport. It’s not yet elite but it seems to be trending in that direction.

Subtracting a Top 10 prospect (or two) now simply doesn’t make sense, and that likely goes double for Bloom, who zealously guards his top young player in the manner of a mama bear protecting her cubs.

At some point, however, the Red Sox will be need to give up something to get something. Here are some potential pieces the Sox might sacrifice:

* Bobby Dalbec. Dalbec is unique for a couple of reasons. First, his advanced age (he turned 28 less than a month ago) and second, his frequent struggles at the big league level. The former isn’t a huge issue, since he has plenty of major league control remaining - he’s not eligible for free agency until after the 2026 season. The latter is potentially more problematic, since his big league failures risk labeling him as a 4A player. Still, there’s a lot of raw power there and his dominance at Worcester this season (22 homers in just 66 games, plus a 1.047 OPS) should intrigue somebody. If Dalbec isn’t going to land the Sox a back-end starter or reliever by himself, he could at least be part of a package to do so.

* Nathan Hickey. Drafted from the University of Florida in the fifth round in 2021, Hickey was a late convert to the catching spot. His principal tool is his power bat, which has produced 10 homers in 41 games at Double A Portland, to go with a .524 slugging percentage. Hickey remains a project behind the plate, but there may be a team willing to gamble on him being able to play a corner outfield spot or first base to access his power potential.

* Wilyer Abreu. Like Hickey ad Dalbec, Abreu’s chief attribute if power. He’s hit 17 homers between Double A and Triple A and has shown the ability to get on base at every level of the minor leagues. Also, like Hickey and Dalbec, it’s difficult to know where he fits in the field, though he could potentially evolve into a corner outfielder. He’s 24, though, and the Sox might want to get something for him while they can.

* Bryan Mata. Throughout the system, pitching is still an area the Red Sox need to improve. Now that Brayan Bello has graduated to the Boston rotation, the organization’s best starting pitching prospect is probably Luis Perales, who’s all of 20 and is likely three years from reaching the big leagues. Mata’s recent injury history - Tommy John in 2021; a shoulder strain this year - could scare off teams. His command has been an issue, and many evaluators now see his ceiling as that of a high-leverage reliever. But thanks to his velocity and stuff, he has value and the Sox might be willing to part with him for the right return.

The report that Rob Manfred will soon be re-elected for another term shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, if any.

Manfred has dutifully done what’s expected of the modern sports commissioner - act on the owners’ wishes, find new revenue streams, and take a hard line in labor negotiations.

That shouldn’t necessarily be confused with acting in the best interest of fans, but then, that notion has been outmoded since owners ousted Fay Vincent in favor of one of their own (Bud Selig). Commissioners now have two chief responsibilities - serve as the corporate public face of the game and line owners’ pockets.

Anything else is either unimportant or secondary.

On Manfred’s watch, there’s been good - attendance is up over eight percent; improved pace-of-play rules; long-term CBA is in place - and bad - the numerous sign-stealing scandals; declining national TV ratings; failure to market individual stars.

Manfred’s public persona isn’t a positive one. He’s shown the odd habit of making cringe-worthy comments, like calling the World Series trophy a “hunk of metal” and mocking the turnout of Oakland fans for their reverse boycott night.

Then again, few of his contemporaries shine in this manner. Gary Bettman and Roger Goodell are equally inept as public-facing heads of sport.

Perhaps all sports should drop the pretense and call their respective commissioners what they really are: CEOs, with nearly every move made with an eye toward the bottom line.

Extra Innings

1) There’s plenty of speculation through the industry that the Tampa Bay Rays will be aggressive at the deadline and maybe even be motivated to deal for Ohtani. (The Rays would not, presumably, have interest in extending him past this season; this would be purely a rental). Tampa Bay could absorb the pro-rated cost of Ohatni’s current deal and they have the prospect capital to entice the Angels, should Ohtani be auctioned off. But on a recent interview on Sirius/XM, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander made it a point to note that both times the Rays went to the World Series (2009 and 2020), they were relatively passive at the deadline. Was that just an observation or a clue about the Rays’ intentions?

2) Last year, Aaron Judge was voted AL MVP for his standout season, in which he set an American League home run record. This year, in an odd way, Judge is again proving how indispensable he is to his team by not playing. He’s been sidelined for the past seven weeks after injuring his toe at Dodger Stadium, and in his absence, the Yanks have cratered. There are other issues, of course. The starting rotation has under-performed beyond Gerrit Cole, and a host of veterans - including Josh Donaldson and Anthony Rizzo - have slumped. But Judge has never seemed quite so valuable as he has while on the IL.

3) Major League Baseball has come a long way when it comes to marketing its draft. It wasn’t that long ago that game did everything it could to conduct the draft in near secrecy, going so far as refusing to tell players when they were drafted in a bid to keep signing bonuses down. Moving the draft to the site of the All-Star Game has attracted more interest and there’s more TV coverage than ever. But something’s terribly wrong when just seven eligible players attended the draft. Imagine the NBA or NFL conducting its drafts with so few attendees.