MLB Odds: 2023 AL East Division winner prediction and pick

The American League East is the only division in baseball with all five teams over .500 on the season. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with an AL East Division winner prediction and pick.

The Tampa Bay Rays are the leaders of the division right now. While sitting with the second-best record in all of baseball at 58-35. After losing two of three of the Braves, and seven of their last ten, the lead is now just two games in the division.

The Baltimore Orioles sit second in the division at 54-35. One of the biggest surprises of the season, the Orioles have found themselves in second all year long. The Orioles are drawing a lot of praise right now for what they have done, and finished the first half hot, winning their last five games.

The Blue Jays sit third in the division at 50-41. They are currently in a wild card slot in the American League and find themselves seven games back of the Rays in the division. There is some concern right now, as Jordan Romano left the All-Star game with some back tightness.

The Yankees sit fourth in the division at 49-42. While a game back in the wild-card race, they are eight games back in the division. The Yankees are disappointed with their first half, and it led them to fire their hitting coach.

Rounding out the American League East are the Boston Red Sox. They sit at 48-43 on the season, nine games back in the division, and two back in the wild card. They may be the hottest team in the division right now though, winning eight of their last ten.

Here are the American League East Division winner odds,

2023 AL East Divison Winner Odds

Tampa Bay Rays: -300

Balitmore Orioles: +550

Boston Red Sox: +8000

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win the AL East

The Rays may be the most complete team in the division. Led by Randy Arozarena and his 58 RBIS, they are second in the majors in runs scored this year. Meanwhile, they are sixth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, and fourth in slugging.

Yandy Diaz is hitting well this year, sitting third in the majors in batting average. This has led to him scoring a team-leading 58 times this year, good for 17th in the majors. Taylor Walls also is tenth in the league in stolen bases.  This is all excluding Wander Franco, who is second in the majors in WAR this year and leads the American League.

On the pitching side, they have the fourth-best team ERA, third-best WHIP, and are first in opponent batting average. This is led by Shane McClanahan who is second in the majors in ERA this year.

Why the Baltimore Orioles will win the AL East

The Oriole's offense is not nearly as good as the Rays. They are ninth in runs scored and slugging this year. The Orioles are 14th in batting average, and 13th in on-base percentage.

They are led by Gunnar Henderson and Austin Hays. Both are in the top fifty in the majors in WAR this year at 2.3. Henderson has been slugging well this year, sitting with 13 home runs on the year and 37 RBIs. Hays has been hitting well this year with a .314 average and nine home runs.

Pitching-wise, the Orioles have been middle of the pack overall. They are 16th in team ERA, 19th in WHIP, and 22nd in opponent batting average. Tyler Wells has been the top pitcher for the Orioles this year, with a 3.18 ERA and seven wins on the year.

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win the AL East

While the Blue Jays have one of the best bats in the majors, they are still a near middle-of-the-pack offense. They are tied for 13th in runs scored, while sitting tenth in on-base percentage, 12th in slugging, and seventh in batting average. For  Toronto it is the combo of Matt Chapman and Bo Bichette leading the way; both sitting top 20 in the majors in WAR.

Chapman is having a solid season, hitting .259 this season with 12 home runs and 39 RBIs. Bichette is fifth in the majors in batting average while driving in 52 runs and hitting 15 home runs.

The pitching staff is leading the way for the Blue Jays. They are ninth in team ERA, fifth in WHIP, tied for third in quality starts, and tenth in opponent batting average. They are led by Kevin Gausman, who has a 3.03 ERA with seven wins on the season. Adding to the quality pitching is a bullpen that is top five in the majors currently.

Why the New York Yankees will win the AL East

While the Yankees sit fifth in the majors in home runs this year, they are still 19th in runs scored this year. It is because they are struggling to hit, sitting 29th in batting average, and 26th in on-base percentage. Injuries are hurting them as well. Aaron Judge is the leader of the offense, with 19 home runs and 40 RBIs, but he has been out as of late.

Judge is also the only player on the Yankees offense in the top 50 in WAR in the league. Anthony Volpe is second on the team, and 61st in the league with a 2.1 WAR. He is hitting just .216 on the year with 33 RBIs and three home runs.

The pitching has been top ten all year, led by Gerrit Cole. He leads the team in ERA, wins, and strikeouts this year. The Yankees have also had one of the best bullpens in the majors, sitting second in the majors in bullpen ERA.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win the AL East

The Red Sox offense has been great this year, being top ten in runs scored, batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging. They are led by Rafael Devers who has 20 home runs and 70 RBIs. Meanwhile, the only player in the top 50 in WAR is Alex Verdugo.

Verdugo is 20th in the majors in WAR, hitting .290, with 38 RBIS and seven home runs. He has the lowest amount of home runs in the top 220 in WAR outside of Luis Arraez who leads the majors in hitting.

While hitting has been good, the pitching needs work. They are 17th in team ERA, 18th in Whip, and 23rd in opponent batting average. Bryan Bello has been solid this year and leads the team with six wins. He has a 3.04 ERA this year as well.

Final AL East Division Winner Prediction and Pick

To win this division it is going to take a combination of both pitching and hitting. Only two teams have the combination of both pitching and hitting. The Blue Jays are one of them. They will need some more pitching down the stretch to make a run. The other is the Rays, who have both great hitting and pitching. If you are looking for deeper odds and a solid chance to win, take the Jays at +1100. If you are looking for the best play, take the Rays.

Final AL East Division Winner Prediction and Pick: Rays (-300)