MLB Odds: AL Central Division winner prediction and pick

The American League Central is a close division race and it will just heat up in the August and September. This will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out an AL Central division winner prediction and pick.

The AL Central is probably the worst division in the MLB. However, the division race is just as tight as some of the other divisions. The Cleveland Guardians (45-45) are currently leading the division by just half a game over the Minnesota Twins (45-46). The Detroit Tigers (39-50) are 5.5 games back, the Chicago White Sox (38-54) are eight games back and the Kansas City Royals (26-65) are 19.5 games back in the division.

The AL Central seems like it is going to be a two horse race. The Royals have absolutely no chance at winning the division as they are one of the worst teams in the entire MLB. The White Sox might become sellers at the deadline and get rid of some key pieces, so I do not see them winning the division. The Tigers are only 5.5 games back, but they are 39-50. Sure, Detroit could get hot and go on a run. However, they do not have the pitching, nor the hitting to make any serious noise at the top of the AL Central. The race will come down to the Twins and the Guardians. With that said, this article will focus on just those two teams.

Here are the AL Central Division winner odds, courtesy of FanDuel

AL Central Division winner odds

Minnesota Twins: -185

Cleveland Guardians: +145

Chicago White Sox: +2500

Detroit Tigers: +3900

Kansas City Royals: +25000

Why the Twins will win the AL Central

The Twins have one of the best pitching staffs in the MLB. Sonny Gray and Bailey Ober both have an ERA below 3.00 while Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez are very respectable rotation pieces as well. Gray, Ryan and Lopez all have a K/9 over 9.0. As a team, the Twins have the third best ERA in the MLB, the best WHIP and the second lowers opponent batting average. The Twins pitching staff is one of the best in the entire league. However, their hitters are struggling. The Twins can not rely on their pitchers to give up less than four runs every game. Minnesota needs to add a few hitters if they want to win the AL Central and compete in the playoffs. If they can get active at the deadline and add a few pieces, Minnesota should win the division.

The Twins open up after the All-Star break against the Oakland Athletics, so that should give them some wins. They play the Athletics later in the season, as well. Minnesota also has games left against the White Sox, Tigers, Royals, Cardinals and Pirates. All those teams are under .500 and should give the Twins a some wins. As long as Minnesota wins the games they are supposed to, they should win the division.

Why the Guardians will win the AL Central

The Guardians have the division lead right now, but it is not a big one. Cleveland has a fine batting average, but they hit for no power. The Guardians have a chance to make the playoffs, but they need to add a power bat or two at the deadline. Hitting singles consistently is not going to win a lot of game late in the season. If the Guardians can add a few guys that drive the ball in the air, they will be even better at the plate. Cleveland does have some decent pitching, though. They have the eighth best ERA and their starters have the 11th most quality starts in the MLB. Everyone needs pitching, but it should not be the Guardians main priority at the deadline.

The Guardians also have games remaining agains the Tigers, White Sox and Royals. Those games need to be won if Cleveland wants any chance at winning the AL Central. The Guardians also need to win the season series with the Twins. If they can go over .500 against AL Central opponents, the Guardians will be in good position to win the division.

Final AL Central Division winner prediction and pick

The Guardians seem to have a harder schedule than the Twins for the rest of the 2023 season. The Twins also have the better pitching staff. As mentioned, Minnesota does need to add a couple bats at the deadline, but they should be able to win the division. I think the Guardians lack of power will hurt them in the long run. My pick for the AL Central division winner is the Twins.

Final AL Central Division winner prediction and pick: Twins -185