MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians prediction, pick, how to watch

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05 May 2023

MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians prediction, pick, how to watch

The Minnesota Twins (18-14) visit the Cleveland Guardians (14-17) for the first of a three-game series between the division rivals. First pitch commences Friday at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Guardians prediction, pick, and how to watch.

Here are the Twins-Guardians MLB odds,

MLB Odds: Twins-Guardians Odds

Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+128)

Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-154)

Over: 8.5 (-120)

Under: 8.5 (-102)

How To Watch Twins vs. Guardians

TV: Bally Sports

Stream: Apple TV+

Time: ET/PT

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread

The Twins find themselves clinging to first place in the AL Central after dropping two of three to the last-place White Sox. Despite that series loss, Minnesota looks sharp to start the year. Prior to the week, Minnesota won two straight series against the Royals and Yankees. That being said, the Guardians pose a much bigger threat than any of their last few opponents. With just 3.5 games separating the division rivals, kicking off the series with a road win would do wonders for their chances of winning the division. That being said, Minnesota faces an uphill battle covering as 1.5-run favorites given their mediocre 8-8 road record. Consequently, the Twins need their defense to continue to lock down opposing hitters if they want to cover.

Bailey Ober (1-0) makes his third start of the season for Minnesota tonight. The 6’9″, 260 lbs. righty looked sharp in his first two starts of the year. He gave up just a single run in both 5.2-inning appearances and holds a stellar 1.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP for the season. He flexed his strikeout potential in his most recent start when he sat down six Royals hitters. Ober didn’t make the Twins’ opening-day rotation but that speaks more to their incredible depth rather than his lack of ability. The 27-year-old maintained a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP en route to going 2-3 in 11 starts last season in the bigs. He features impeccable control on the mound – highlighted by a career 4.5 K:BB rate. While Cleveland boasts a solid lineup, Ober shut them down last season – allowing no runs and just a single hit in 5.0 innings of work

Minnesota boasts an average offense that excels at hitting the ball long and far. The Twins rank eighth in both isolated power and home run rate but manage to strike out at the third-highest rate in the league. In recent games, Byron Buxton has been on fire. Over his last six appearances, he holds a .333 average to go along with three home runs, six RBI, and 19 total bases.

Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread

Cleveland continues to sputter after a solid start to the year as they now sit three games under .500 for the first time this season. The 2022 AL Central champs still sit in second place in the division despite losing five consecutive series. Consequently, they cratered down the standings and return home as underdogs to their division rivals. That being said, the Guardians brought back largely the same roster that one the division last season and it is only a matter of time before they turn things around. Perhaps their biggest issues come on the offensive end as the Guardians rank 25th in runs per game and 30th in total bases per game. As a result, Cleveland needs to wake up their bats if they want to cover as home underdogs,

Righty Peyton Battenfield (0-2) makes his fourth start of the season for the Guardians tonight. The 25-year-old started the season strong by allowing just two runs in his first 10.2 innings pitched. His last two appearances inflated his ERA, however, as he slowed seven earned runs over his last 6.2 innings. Consequently, Battenfield’s counting stats look ugly. He holds a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP and managed just 14 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched. That being said Battenfield possesses strong stuff on the bump and looked sharp in his first two starts before imploding the last two times out. Look for him to bounce back tonight against a Twins offense that strikes out at the third-highest rate in the MLB.

Given Battenfield’s recent struggles, the Guardians need their offense to show up. Cleveland has struggled mightily at the plate this year – ranking last in slugging, home run rate, and total bases per game. While they do a good job limiting strikeouts and generating walks, the Guardians simply haven’t been a serious threat when swinging the bat. That being said both Jose Ramirez and Josh Bell began to show signs of life over the last week. In their last six games, Ramirez leads the team with a .348 average while both sluggers collected eight total bases.