MLB picks: Cubs should buck a key trend at Tigers, Padres should soar over Marlins

This is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. .

All times Eastern | Game odds via SportsLineconsensus

🔥 The Hot Ticket

Cubs at Tigers, 6:40 p.m. | Watch live: MLB.tv

• The Pick: Cubs Over 4.5 (-110)
• KeyTrend: The Cubs are averaging 5.8 runs per game since the start of July.

It may surprise some that it's more difficult to hit an evening home run at Detroit's Comerica Park than any other stadium. I would've assumed it was San Francisco, Oakland or even San Diego; however, according to Statcast's Park Factors, over the last three seasons, it's been Comerica Park. (Next worst is Pittsburgh.) San Francisco and Oakland rank 28th and 29th, while San Diego is 24th.

I tell you all this because I'm betting the Cubs will manage to hit some dingers there tonight.

Detroit is sending Alex Faedo to the mound, and while the Tigers still hold out hope their former first-round pick will pan out, early results in the bigs haven't been promising. He has a 5.16 ERA through 45.1 innings this year, but what concerns me most tonight is that he's walking too many hitters and allowing dingers at an incredible rate. Nine home runs allowed against 181 batters is a lot.

In another context, hitters have homered off Faedo in 4.97% of their plate appearances. The MLB average HR% this season is 3.16.

Making matters worse for Faedo? He's facing a Cubs offense that has been hot for the last two months, performs better against righties and will benefit from double-digit winds blowing out to right field tonight. Not only would I bet on the Cubs to score at least five runs tonight, I'd also consider some home run props on the lefty bats in their lineup, like Cody Bellinger.

💰The Picks

⚾ MLB

Marlins at Padres, 9:40 p.m | Watch live: MLB.tv

The Pick: Padres (-195) -- Like the Reds, the Marlins are struggling to hold onto their playoff hopes. The Fish have gone 16-26 since the start of July, and while they never had a realistic shot of catching Atlanta, the wild card had been well within reach before this stretch. I don't believe things will start to turn around tonight. Not with Ryan Weathers taking the bump.

Weathers began the season with San Diego but was traded to Miami after posting a 6.25 ERA through 44.2 innings. In his lone appearance with the Marlins, he allowed six runs and four walks over 3.2 innings. Maybe there's a "revenge game" factor at play for Weathers tonight, but regardless of motivation, I don't believe he's a good enough pitcher for it to matter.