MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for August 1, 2023
The Phillies offense has struggled in July, putting up a 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They were possibly the best offense in June but have cooled off significantly. Will Sandy get the best of them? With a 2.5 earned run line and this being his third time around against them, I think they’ll be able to knock him around enough to get us close.
Ranger Saurez will line up on the other side who is in the midst of a really rough stretch. We were basically blind tailing him earlier in the season, but over his last five starts, he has failed to look good in any of them. He’s facing a Marlins offense that kills left-handed pitching, putting up a 124 wRC+ in July, and is among the top ten in baseball this season.
He’s faced the Marlins once this season, allowing three earned runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings in Miami on July 8th. He’s also rocking a 2.5 earned run line juiced towards the over, but it’s not all that strange considering he’s been dreadful in July. With a total this low, we only need about five runs through the first six innings before the bullpens come in.
The Marlins bullpen improved by acquiring David Robertson, but they are still being overworked. Edward Cabrera didn’t last long yesterday, and they had to use the bulk of their bullpen. They haven’t had an off day in a while, so the only arms that are rested today are Lopez, Chargois, and Robertson. They don’t have much rest, but enough to prepare for today. Not much faith in this Marlins bullpen if things don’t go really well with Sandy.
The Phillies don’t have much that they can go to today, and the bullpen itself hasn’t been great. Kimbrel has been their guy, and he’s thrown in three of the last four days. Gregory Soto will be available but keeps the Marlins in their better split. Marte could pitch, but he has a 5.10 ERA. We should see Andrew Velasquez, one of the Phillies’ best arms. It’s not a bullpen I have faith in today.
The total is too low. This is a battle of starters with xERA’s in the mid-fours with less than desirable bullpens at the moment. The model is obsessed with it, capping this game at nine runs. I thought this should be at 8, with juice towards the over or 8.5 at +100. I would play this up to 8 at +100.
