MLB Picks Tonight: Best MLB Bets for Sunday, April 30
This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The first full month of the MLB marathon schedule is in the books and there have been many surprises, led by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own the best record in the National League at 20-8 entering play Sunday. They have produced a remarkable 53 percent return on investment averaging a +112 wager. However, only one team in the past 10 seasons -- the 2016 San Francisco Giants -- has finished a season returning a 20 percent or higher ROI.
After stumbling out of the gate to a 1-5 record, the Philadelphia Phillies have won 14 of their last 22 games and are riding a four-game winning streak. Over this 22-game stretch they ranked fourth in MLB in wins, trailing the Tampa Bay Rays (17 wins), Toronto Blue Jays (16 wins), Pirates (16 wins) and Baltimore Orioles (15 wins). The Phillies are surging up the rankings in most offensive categories and currently rank third with a .276 team batting average. They are scoring only 4.39 runs per game (RPG) ,ranking 18th in the league, but based on their percentage of hard-hit balls and barrel percentage their expected RPG is much higher at 5.20.
The Phillies have won the first two games of this three-game series in a rematch of last season's World Series won by the Houston Astros. My predictive models are expecting a Phillies three-game sweep.
The Phillies will have left-hander Bailey Falter (0-4,4.50) on the hill to square off against the Astros right-hander Jose Urquidy (1-2, 5.64), with the first pitch scheduled for 7:00 EST and the game being televised nationally on ESPN.
Falter has pitched quite well and is much better than a starter who is winless through four starts. He posted a quality start in each of his last two outings but failed to get enough run support to earn the win. He will get plenty of run support today in that regard. Falter pitches ahead in the count and has walked only 3.6 percent of the batters he has faced. He has four pitches, throwing a fastball 50 percent of the time, a slider and changeup around 10 percent each, and a curveball 30 percent in his average start. His curve is his best pitch and averages 76 MPH, but he can vary the speed and vertical movement so much that batters -- especially left-handed ones -- have difficulty even making contact. Moreover, among starters, he is averaging a team-high 4.9 strikeouts per walk allowed.
The same excellence cannot be said for Urquidy, who has posted a terrible 5.64 ERA with a 1.747 WHIP. He is averaging only 4.5 innings per start, has walked 9 batters and has recorded 20 strikeouts on the season. In two night starts, he has posted a whopping 12.86 ERA and a 2.571 WHIP, which is certainly not the recipe when facing an excellent offense such as the Phillies.
Urquidy is averaging 1.82 strikes per ball on the season, ranking third among the Astro's starters and is essentially matching the MLB average of 1.84. The Phillies are a patient-hitting team and work counts to their advantage in nearly at-bat. Urquidy must throw a high percentage of first-pitch strikes tonight to have any chance of working into the fifth or later, and that is not likely to happen.
The situational betting system has earned a solid 45-54 record for 46 percent winners but has averaged a 132-wager producing a seven percent ROI. The requirements are to bet on road dogs between 125 and 140 that have a starter with a better season-to-date strikes-to-balls ratio than the opposing starter. Now, if our road dog is coming off a win against the same opponent they are facing today, their record improves to 14-11 for 56 percent averaging a 130 wager and producing a money-making 28 percent ROI. It all points to a solid betting opportunity on the Phillies using the money line.
