MLB playoff odds: Rays, Diamondbacks, Brewers biggest movers in first month

We are about a month into the Major League Baseball season and we have seen some impressive and surprising showings from teams early on.

The Tampa Bay Rays, Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers have shot out of the gates this season, the Rays especially after starting 13-0 in 2023. While it’s a long season and there are peaks and valleys during a 162-game season, each of these teams have made quite the impression and are angling for a postseason berth.

Here is how FanGraphs have seen each team’s odds chance to make the postseason from Opening Day to April 20th.

Tampa Bay Rays odds to make playoffs

The Rays were a likely playoff team in 2023, but the historic start to the season almost wrapped it up this early in the year. The team opened with a 61.3% chance to make the postseason, but have improved its standing to 92.7% about a month in.

After a 13-0 start, the Rays simply need to play slightly above average baseball in the competitive AL East in order to secure a postseason berth.

But what if the team stays hot? FanGraphs have improved its World Series percentage from 4.9% before the season to 10.1% after it’s 16-3 start.

Milwaukee Brewers odds to make playoffs 

The Brewers have been offloading some of its talented pieces over the past year, but given the NL Central has been a rebuilding division for the past few years, the team was seen as a likely postseason team.

FanGraphs had the Brewers at 59.3% to make the playoffs, but Milwaukee has outperformed expectations so far this season, 14-5 on the year and currently two games ahead of the Cubs and Pirates.

Now, the Brewers have over 73% now to make the postseason as the projected favorite to win the NL Central St. Louis Cardinals have slumped early on, only 8-11.

Arizona Diamondbacks odds to make playoffs

Both the Rays and Brewers were likely playoff teams ahead of the season, even if they are playing far better than pundits expected. However, the Diamondbacks are playing at an extremely high level so far, first place in the NL West, arguably the most competitive division in baseball.

Arizona is 11-8 and the only team above .500 through about 20 games. After entering the year with a 15.3% chance to make the postseason and less than 1% chance to win the World Series, the D-Backs have put themselves in position to contend for October baseball.

However, FanGraphs isn’t as sold, only giving the D-Backs a 19.8% chance to make the playoffs to make the playoffs.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.