Morning Coffee: Reaction to FanDuel’s updated odds for Maple Leafs to advance

The Toronto Maple Leafs were the favourite to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel at the beginning of the week.

Five days later, there’s only one team with longer odds to win it all.

If you’re a fan of the team, I know what you’re thinking as your read this column right now.

After all, the Maple Leafs have been the betting favourite to win each of their first five home games so far this postseason.

Toronto has a 1-4 record in those five contests.

Just when it seemed like their fans were finally willing to buy into the idea that the Maple Leafs could end their Stanley Cup drought, the team’s trajectory has taken a turn for the worst.

Still, this is the same team that was the favourite to win it all at FanDuel just a few days ago.

What are the chances that Toronto rallies to advance?

Based on FanDuel’s updated series winner odds, it’s too early to write off the Maple Leafs just yet.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday May 5, 2023.

Reaction to FanDuel’s updated odds for Maple Leafs to advance

Two nights after winning Game 1 as a +155 money line underdog, the Florida Panthers beat Toronto 3-2 as a +168 money line underdog in Game 2 to take a 2-0 series lead.

If you bet $10 on the Panthers to win Game 1 at FanDuel, then doubled down and put your winnings on Florida to win Game 2, you’d be up a profit of $58.34 right now.

In that scenario, would you be willing to triple down on the Panthers to win Game 3 at +105?

Under the circumstances, it’s an important question to consider.

If Florida wins on Sunday night to go up 3-0, the series could very well be over.

However, if the Maple Leafs could find a way to take care of business as a -126 money line favourite for Game 3, then all of a sudden they’ll be right back in it.

What are the odds that Toronto rallies to win the series?

The Maple Leafs were -176 to advance to the third round at FanDuel entering Game 1 on Tuesday night. That number translates to a 63.8 per cent implied win probability.

After falling behind 2-0 in the series, Toronto is +235 to win the series at FanDuel. That number translates to a 29.9 per cent implied win probability.

While it’s obvious why the Maple Leafs are an underdog to win the series, those odds imply that they have a better chance to advance than history would suggest.

After all, teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-seven series when starting on the road are 85-21 all-time – an 80.2 per cent win rate.

I won’t bet on Toronto to win the series at +235.

However, I do think it’s interesting that they are a road favourite for Game 3, and if they can find a way to bounce back with a win on Sunday night they will be right back in the series.

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