Move Over NFL Week 10, There Are NBA Games To Bet Sunday

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If there was ever a Sunday to consider betting the NBA, it’s this one. This NFL Week 10 slate is abysmal. The primetime games are a joke and Lions-Chargers is the best game in the 4 p.m. ET window.

Luckily, the NBA scheduled 11 games so I won’t have to force a bet on the Jets-Raiders Sunday Night Football game. Despite the hefty slate, I could only get to the window with three …

This feels like an early Christmas gift. Denver is only -4.5 favorites in Houston?! I know Nuggets All-Star PG Jamal Murray is out with an injury but this is an auto-bet. Denver still has Nikola Jokic and three starters on a reigning NBA championship team.

Nuggets forwards Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are better than anyone on the Rockets. In the 2023 NBA Finals, the Nuggets were -3.5 favorites when visiting the Miami Heat. Now, they are only -4.5 vs. this unproven Houston team?

Sure, the 5-3 Rockets look good so far. But, they still have a below-average roster unless Houston wing Dillon Brooks and big Alperen Sengun keep balling. However, Sengun’s progression might motivate Jokic to rip his face off.

Moreover, the Nuggets are playing on three days rest. Since 2021, Denver is 9-3 straight up (SU) and 8-4 against the spread (ATS) with more than two days off in between games. The Nuggets are 3-1 ATS in those spots as road favorites with a +7.3 SU margin.

Finally, somehow the sharp money is on Denver as of noon ET Sunday. Per Pregame.com, more bets are on Houston but there’s more cash on the Nuggets. Typically, you want to follow the money when it’s counter to the public.

• Bet 1.1u on the Denver Nuggets -4.5 (-110), playable up to -5.

The Mavs beat the brakes off the Los Angeles Clippers, 144-126, for their 3rd win in the last four games. The Pelicans’ are on a 4-game losing skid, losing at the Houston Rockets 104-101 Friday in their most recent outing.

NOLA’s 3-point defense is misleading. The Pelicans are 1st in defensive 3-point shooting but have the highest 3PAr rate allowed in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). They rank 24th in defensive wide-open 3PAr as well. “Wide-open” is when the 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender. 

The Mavericks on the other hand are the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA. They have the highest 3PAr in non-garbage time and the 7th-best wide-open 3PAr. Defensively, Dallas is 8th in 3-point attempts allowed per game with an above-average wide-open 3PAr. 

Both teams run mostly half-court offense. But, the Mavericks rank higher in offensive and defensive efficiency in the half-court, per CTG. Plus, New Orleans is 27th in shot selection, per CTG, and attempts too many inefficient mid-range jumpers. Dallas is 6th in defensive shot selection by allowing fewer field goals at the rim and 3-point attempts. 

Finally, the Pelicans are still missing key contributors. They are definitely without two starters in SG C.J. McCollum and Trey Murphy III and backup PG Jose Alvarado. New Orleans could also be missing starting wing Herbert Jones. 

• Bet 1.1u on the Dallas Mavericks -3 (-110), playable up to -4.

Saturday, Golden State lost to the Cleveland Cavaliers 118-110, which went Over the 225-point total. Minnesota’s 117-110 victory at the San Antonio Spurs went Over its 225-point total as well. It was the Timberwolves’ 3rd consecutive Over.

So why is this total only 220.5?

Well, last season, the Warriors were 0-5 Over/Under (O/U) at home in the 2nd of a back-to-back. Their O/U margin was -14.4 in those contests. Three of the four Timberwolves-Warriors meetings last season went Under the total. Those games had a -16.1 O/U margin. 

Golden State’s defense played much better at home in 2022-23. The Warriors allowed nearly 11 fewer points per game in San Francisco last season and opponents were shooting almost 7% worse from behind the arc (39.7-33.0%). 

Also, Minnesota leads the NBA in defensive efficiency, per CTG. The T-Wolves are 4th in defensive shot selection thanks to C Rudy Gobert dominating the paint. Gobert is among the favorites to win his 4th NBA Defensive Player of the Year.

Furthermore, Minnesota SG Anthony Edwards is playing at an All-Defensive level and T-Wolves wing Jaden McDaniels is one of the best perimeter defenders in the Association. 

Lastly, the styles of these teams suggest a lot of long, one-and-done possessions. The Dubs don’t force many turnovers but rank 9th in offensive turnover rate. Golden State grabs a lot of offensive rebounds however Minnesota ranks 3rd in defensive rebounding rate. 

• Bet 1.1u on the UNDER 220.5 in Timberwolves-Warriors, playable down to 219.

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