MSU football vs. Penn State: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State's football game vs. Penn State (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten), 7:30 p.m. Friday. TV: NBC. Betting line: Penn State -21

1. Maliq Carr’s encore

Maliq Carr was everything Michigan State hoped he would be this season last week at Indiana. That version of Carr is a difference-maker against any opponent, including Penn State, which has the sort of defense that exposes offenses that don’t have elite playmakers. Carr is MSU’s only one, with apologies to several guys who are good players in supporting roles. Carr stands out in any matchup — when he’s at his best.

If MSU is to have any chance at having enough offensive punch to win this game, Carr is going to have to be the dazzling and punishing pass-catcher he was in hauling in seven passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns against the Hoosiers. Carr should have plenty of motivation, too. For all of his perceived underachieving (partly due to injury), if he puts together another game like he did last Saturday, I don’t know that he wouldn’t be an intriguing NFL prospect already. A risk for the NFL, but an undeniable talent.

2. Can Katin Houser take the next step and have a moment?

Part of the problem for redshirt freshman quartebrack Katin Houser is that he’s been measured next to freshman Sam Leavitt, whose arm talent and swagger is tough to beat. But there’s nothing wrong with a more normal pace of development. And Houser took some steps in the right direction last week, including showing poise and moxie and making plays on the game-winning drive. He’s going to have to be better than he ever has for MSU to move the ball against Penn State’s defense, which is only allowing 12.5 points per game, fourth-best in college football, and is tops in the sport in quarterback sacks, averaging 3.73 each week. Houser will have to hang in there and step into throws against pressure — things he hasn’t always done well. But, if he plays a smart and efficient game and makes plays against Penn State, he'll give MSU a chance. And he’ll definitely change the notion of what he can become.

3. Penn State’s offense and Drew Allar's health

There is a perception of Penn State’s offense as an inept unit that fired its coordinator and is essentially Iowa, but in the Big Ten’s East Division. But while the Nittany Lions are far from prolific, their reputation is based on two games essentially — a 20-12 loss at Ohio State and a 24-15 home defeat against Michigan. Penn State isn’t as complete as those two teams. But the Nittany Lions are in a second tier all their own, their offense good enough otherwise. Keep in mind, they beat Iowa 31-0, thumped a decent Northwestern team 41-13, scored 33 points against Indiana and 51 in trouncing Maryland.

All of that was with 19-year-old Drew Allar at quarterback. Allar left Saturday's 27-6 win over Rutgers after taking a hit to the right shoulder the third quarter. James Franklin said Monday that he expects Allar to play Friday night against MSU. Without Allar, Penn State attempted just one pass with backup Beau Pribula.

Even if Allar does play, the Nittany Lions' offensive reputation isn't entirely unfair. Penn State averages a very middle-of-the-road 373 yards per game and only 195 of that is through the air. And the Nittany Lions’ defense puts their offense in a lot of favorable spots. This offense alone shouldn't blow away MSU, if the Spartans are healthy enough and determined enough for one more steely performance.

4. Can MSU limit Penn State’s ground game?

In Saturday’s 27-6 win over Rutgers, the Nittany Lions completed just seven passes, just six even with Allar in the game. They didn’t need any more than that. They averaged better than 6 yards per carry in rushing for 234 yards. They also rushed 57 times for 218 yards against Iowa and, even against Michigan, had some success on the ground. Teams that have curtailed Penn State’s rushing attack and forced Allar and Co. to beat them through the air have given the Nittany Lions problems or at least fared OK against them, Ohio State being the best example of this. Nothing MSU has done of late suggests the Spartans will provide that sort of resistance. But MSU has had some strong moments defensively against the run this season — holding Iowa to 2.3 yards per carry, Rutgers to 3.1 and Michigan to 3.5 in the middle of the season. If the Spartans can recapture that, they might be able to stay in this thing.

5. The atmosphere and vibe at Ford Field

When this game at Ford Field was conceived, the thought — other than giving in to the Big Ten and TV execs — was that it could be a cool experience, something different on Thanksgiving weekend, a warm environment, a venue that excited the players, and perhaps a good recruiting weekend, too. No one saw this MSU season unfolding like it did. The question now is what will the crowd be like? How full will the building be? How many of the fans will be Penn State fans? If the Nittany Lions were still playing for a chance at a Big Ten championship, the place might have been overrun with blue and white. It’s hard to imagine that now. For MSU, this is the end of a tough season, the likely end for most of this staff, just a weird and trying time. Hardly festive. It’s hard to picture what sort of energy will be at Ford Field and how that’ll impact the football on the field.

Prediction

We know who these teams are. Each of them has an 11-game body of work that tells us. And 9-2 Penn State is clearly a notch above 4-7 MSU. The Nittany Lions are healthier, in a more stable situation, likely headed to a New Year’s Six bowl game. I don’t think Penn State is too good to be upset. But it would be a significant upset.