Musselburgh and Haydock tips: Best value bets for Saturday April 8

• The Value Bet is designed to generatelong-term profitby searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland.
• Following all of Matt’s tips to advertised stakes/odds since he took over from Ben Linfoot in June 2020 would have produced over 100pts profit.
• Last year's winners included Desert Crown in the Derby at25/1and Noble Yeats at50/1, while this year he's tipped Betfair Hurdle winner Aucunrisque at 14/1, Grand Annualwinner Maskada at25/1 and Stage Star at11/1.

Value Bet tips: Saturday, April 8

1pt win Gioia Cieca in 2.25 Musselburgh at 33/1 (General)

1pt win Small Present in 2.40 Haydock at 16/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

1pt win Tiger Jet in 3.15 Haydock at 16/1 (General)

Loads to soak up on a busy Saturday afternoon, including the opening day of the Fairyhouse Easter meeting which features the odd Cheltenham winner (Jazzy Matty), runner-up (Allegorie De Vassy), plus a few interesting also-rans like Tax For Max, Mars Harper and Favori De Champdou for good measure.

The six-year-old hunter chaser Ferns Lock is arguably one of the most promising runners who skipped the Festival and he looks bound to take all the beating on the return to the scene of his striking effort when slamming Its On The Line here back in November.

From Ireland to Scotland and tote Summer World Pool Queen’s Cup day at Musselburgh, the feature race one of four from the course shown on ITV4. It’s a typically competitive renewal and looks likely to throw up some major contenders for top staying handicaps such at the Chester Cup, Ascot Stakes and maybe even the Sky Bet Ebor at York later into the season.

East Asia, representing last year’s winning trainer Ian Williams, is a likely type for all the above and he comes here on the back of what was presumably a prep run when fifth of seven at Kempton in the middle of last month. Granted, he’s got to race off an 11lb higher mark back on turf this weekend but it’s not beyond him based on the pick of his Group-race form out in Meydan last winter.

Stall one (had the same at Kempton, co-incidentally) doesn’t fill me with confidence, though, as there isn’t much pace on and it’s not hard to imagine East Asia will find himself too far back with a wall of horses in front of him when the race really hots up.

I’ll sit tight with him with those bigger targets in mind, while it could be worth taking the same approach with The Bell Conductor in the Tote World Pool Scottish Sprint Cup Handicap as I’ve already convinced myself he looks a Dante meeting project for Paul Midgley.

In fairness, the six-year-old has been shaping well in defeat on the all-weather since the turn of the year and he could pop up in this from a mark of 92, but he’s still a few pounds higher than when last successful and there’s not quite enough to convince me into a bet around the 10/1 mark.

There’s so much educated guesswork involved when it comes to the turf action this time of year, I like to be particularly well compensated in terms of price; which leads me to GIOIA CIECA in the tote.co.uk Bet£5Get£20 Musselburgh Silver Arrow Handicap.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish has obviously already told his owners that he’ll be winding down this year but there’s no set date in mind by all accounts and I think we can safely assume all of his horses will be as ready as possible with the reported target of 1,000 winners before Dalgleish packs it in (he’ll need another 40-odd winners if my maths is up to scratch).

He has one of the favourites for the Queen’s Cup in Good Show but I’m more intrigued by Dalgleish’s outsiders in this event and course winner Gioia Cieca makes more appeal than Volatile Analyst, who is a similar sort of price and another horse has seemingly had one or two issues.

Gioia Cieca was sent off just 4/1 for this race on his seasonal return last year and although well held that day, he went on to post a respectable fourth at Haydock before running a bit better than the bare form suggests in the Victoria Cup at Ascot.

It all went very pear-shaped in four-subsequent outings during 2022 and he’s not been seen in public since August 16, but they’ve thrown the kitchen sink at trying to get him back on track during the winter, the son of Kitten’s Joy resuming after a gelding operation and wind surgery (stable’s w1 strike-rate stands at an admittedly modest 3-32 over the years).

The wind op could turn out to be a good move as he did occasionally look like a horse trying to do it all on the one breath but, more importantly, his handicap mark has come tumbling down and he’s now 9lb lower than when winning here a couple of summers ago.

It’s clearly a leap of faith but it looks significant enough that he remains in training, given the circumstances around the yard in general, and I’ll roll the dice at huge prices from what looks a good draw in stall two and Graham Lee booked.

Best bet at the odds at Haydock is SMALL PRESENT in the cavani.co.uk Challenger Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase.

The case for him largely hinges on the fact he’s a two-time winner at the course from his hurdling days, including in the Stayers Hurdle Series Final on this card two years ago.

It’s quite disappointing to think he’s yet to get off the mark over the larger obstacles as, like plenty of others in the care of Sue Smith, he’s looked a chaser from the outset and barring a bad mistake on his debut in this sphere back in October 2021 (went back over hurdles for the rest of that campaign after that) there’s nothing in the manner in which he addresses a fence that would massively put you off as a punter.

He looked to be building up to a first chase win when third to Bangers And Cash in the Lincolnshire National at Market Rasen on Boxing Day and while the two efforts since aren’t anywhere near as promising on paper, I can excuse him finishing sixth (of 14) in a good renewal of the Grand National Trial here in February.

I’m not convinced he was in love with the properly heavy ground at Newcastle last time too, for all that he’s won on all types of going in the past, as he ran well for a long way before weakening, and he could be a lot happier on the prevailing conditions this weekend.

It’s been an in-and-out season for the Smith so far (mainly out if truth be told) but she had two winners last week and a second on Thursday so the green shoots of recovery are evident this spring and – down a combined 6lb for the two most recent runs - Small Present has clearly been given a massive chance by the assessor.

In the cavani.co.uk Challenger Stayers Hurdle Series Final Handicap Hurdle I’m drawn to TIGER JET right at the foot of the weights.

His trainer Brian Ellison has found some serious form with four winners in the past fortnight and a bunch of others who have run well in defeat too, and this horse will surely be picking up another handicap hurdle before too long.

He justified strong market support when winning from a mark of 102 at Hexham at the start of the season and has since added a small novice event at Newcastle to his tally.

He’s rated 111 at the moment so needs another small PB but the third to Rafferty’s Return at Wetherby over Christmas reads well and he caught the eye when sixth at Kelso last month.

He was a bit outpaced around there and probably wasn’t ideally placed, in hindsight, but it was an encouraging run under a big weight and, given his natural keenness, the seven-year-old could be much better suited by the way this stronger contest is likely to pan out.

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