Napoli vs. AC Milan prediction, odds, start time: UEFA Champions League picks, bets for April 12, 2023
AC Milan look to take advantage of their opponent's misfortune when they host Serie A rival Napoli for the first leg of their 2022-23 UEFA Champions League quarterfinal tie. Napoli, who sit atop the Serie A table, will be missing their leading scorer as forward Victor Osimhen is suffering from a thigh injury. The 24-year-old Nigerian is first in the Italian league this season with 21 goals and shares the team lead in the Champions League with four. The sides split their two Serie A meetings this campaign, with Milan posting a 4-0 victory earlier this month.
Kickoff at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza is set for 3 p.m. ET. AC Milan are the +160 favorites (risk $100 to win $160) in the latest Napoli vs. AC Milan odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Napoli are +185 underdogs. A 90-minute draw is priced at +205 and the over/under for total goals scored is 2.5. Before locking in any AC Milan vs. Napoli picks, you need to see what proven SportsLine soccer expert Martin Green has to say.
After working in the sports betting industry for several years, Green became a professional sports writer and handicapper and has covered the game worldwide. Since last year's World Cup, Green is 77-81-3 (+4.32 units) with his soccer picks, including a 12-8 record (+2.17) with his Champions League predictions.
Now, Green has broken down Napoli vs. AC Milan from every angle and just revealed his UCL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Green's picks. Here are the betting lines and trends for AC Milan vs. Napoli:
- Napoli vs. AC Milan money line: AC Milan +160, Napoli +185, Draw +205
- Napoli vs. AC Milan over/under: 2.5 goals
- Napoli vs. AC Milan spread: AC Milan -0.5 (+155)
- NAP: The Blues have scored at least three goals in six of their eight UCL matches
- MIL: The Rossoneri have allowed fewer than two goals in nine of their last 11 games across all competitions
- Napoli vs. AC Milan picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back Napoli
The Blues have a potent offense as they lead the Champions League with 25 goals. However, they will be without Osimhen, who is Serie A's top scorer this season with 21 goals, on Wednesday. He's one of four players on the team with four goals in the Champions League but is dealing with a thigh injury. Luckily for manager Luciano Spalletti, Napoli has plenty of goal-scoring alternatives as 10 other members of the squad have found the back of the net in Champions League play thus far.
Midfielder Piotr Zielinski and forward Giacomo Raspadori also have converted four times for the Blues, with the former tallying in the team's last UCL match - a 3-0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt on March 15. Napoli also has received production from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia in his first season with the club after he spent the previous four in the Russian Premier League. The 22-year-old Georgian winger, who has netted 12 goals and leads Serie A with 10 assists, has recorded two goals and is tied for second in the UCL with four assists.
Why you should back AC Milan
An already strong defense figures to have an easier time against the top-scoring team in the Champions League without Osimhen on the pitch. The Rossoneri are hoping for a repeat performance after keeping a Napoli side that was missing Osimhen off the scoreboard in their Serie A showdown on Apr. 2. AC Milan have recorded four consecutive clean sheets in UCL play and haven't yielded a goal in their last two Italian league matches.
The Rossoneri are led offensively by Olivier Giroud, who has scored 12 goals across all competitions this season. The 36-year-old French striker converted in Milan's 2-1 loss to Napoli in the Serie A on Sept. 18 and leads the club with four goals in the Champions League. Portuguese forward Rafael Leao leads AC Milan in league play with 10 goals, two of which came against Napoli in their last meeting, while Spanish forward Brahim Diaz provided the only goal in their Round of 16 tie against Tottenham.
How to make AC Milan vs. Napoli picks
Green has broken down the Champions League match from every angle. He is leaning Over on the goal total and has locked in a pair of confident best bets while offering a full breakdown of this matchup. You can only see his Champions League picks and analysis at SportsLine.
