NASCAR at Las Vegas expert preview: Odds to win, ‘a giant question mark,’ long shot picks and more
NASCAR heads to Las Vegas this weekend (Sunday, March 3, 3 p.m. ET, FOX), following what was widely considered one of the greatest finishes of all-time in Atlanta. This also marks the move to the season’s first intermediate track, bringing with it long green-flag runs and what many purists consider “real” racing.
Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi are back to answer our questions, including our contractually-obligated-every-two-months query on simming, a few long shot picks, some musings on Ford vs. Toyota vs. Chevrolet… and more.
1. In your interview with Corey LaJoie, he mentioned doing simulator work and that taking up a lot of his time (“With simulator and debrief and preparation and film study throughout the week — over 36 weeks, it’s easy for me to get burned out.”). We talked about this a little last year, but has there been an increase in simming? Are the same people still into it or not into it? Have you guys changed your view on it at all?
Jeff: There are a couple different terms involving simulators, and they have an important distinction. First, there are the sims you and I could purchase and race on through the iRacing platform. It’s somewhat of a video game, but at another level – like Microsoft Flight Simulator. Real-life drivers can use iRacing to familiarize themselves with the racetrack, but that’s largely ineffective for determining what sort of setup their crew chiefs need to bring to the track. On the other hand, the simulator work LaJoie and most drivers refer to are the driver-in-the-loop (DIL) simulators housed at the performance centers for each manufacturer. So LaJoie and his team would be given a certain time slot, and he’d go to Chevrolet’s simulator and sit in what resembles a real race car cockpit, buckle in and get on the radio to speak with his team about changes – just like at a real track. Again, the closest comparison would be a flight simulator at an airline’s training center. The driver and engineers then go through a variety of setups and try things like they would if they had practice. Those simulators are what teams actually use to hone their setups for the track in real life, so the driver input is very valuable.
Jordan: If you’re curious about how drivers use simulators to hone their skills, this is a good behind-the-scenes look at how they’ve become an invaluable tool.
2. You mentioned in your Atlanta recap that Suárez’s win likely saved his job. Because of the uniqueness of that track, would you say his performance is an outlier, or should we keep an eye on him going forward?
Jeff: That remains to be seen. Neither of us had Suarez making the playoffs this season, so we didn’t expect him to win a race at all. Now that he has, and we’re approaching the first “real” race this weekend at Las Vegas, can he keep up the pace and continue to run among the top 10 drivers? We honestly don’t know yet, but it’ll be a fun storyline to watch.
Jordan: We know Trackhouse builds cars good enough to consistently run up front, win races and vie for the championship. Suarez’s teammate, Ross Chastain, has proven as much. What’s unknown is whether Suarez can do the same. Him earning his first oval-track win is a good start, but this needs to be the beginning and not a blip. But the potential is certainly there.
3. Who do you like to win this week?
Jeff: A word of warning: This is one of the most difficult weeks to predict a winner since 2022. Toyota and Ford both have new cars, and you cannot learn anything from Daytona and Atlanta. Las Vegas and Phoenix present the first real tests on intermediate and short tracks, respectively. So will the Toyotas hit on something? Maybe Ford? Or will Chevrolets, already knowing their car so well, be able to have speed? You would think drivers who race for the various manufacturers could be grouped together, so it depends whether you think one group will shine and the others will miss it. Pay close attention to Saturday’s practice session. In the meantime, since you asked for a pick, I’ll go with Kyle Larson.
Jordan: There is a giant question mark hanging over Sunday’s race as no one – not drivers, crew chiefs, engineers or manufacturers – can confidently predict what’s going to unfold. This marks the first time the new cars Ford and Toyota have rolled out this season have hit a track like Las Vegas and it’s TBD on how they’ll perform. It could be great, it could be bad, it could be somewhere in the middle. And how will Chevrolet’s older model race in comparison? It’s a lot of unknowns. So taking all this into account, let’s go with Christopher Bell, who typically runs well here.
4. Is there a long shot we like this week?
Jeff: If the Toyotas are the ones who bring the speed, there’s some very high value in Bubba Wallace and Ty Gibbs both being at +2200. Wallace has shown he can win on an intermediate track with a fast car. But again, it depends whether the Toyotas as a whole are performing well. As I said earlier, pay attention to the 10-lap averages in practice.
Jordan:Ty Gibbs is a good candidate, especially if Toyota brings a fast car like it typically does on an intermediate track. Austin Cindric is another name to note. His Penske teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, often run well here and is Ford’s designed Mustang is up to the task, Cindric leaving with a top 10, maybe top five, finish is on the table.
5. You’ve both said these first two races kind of don’t count as far as determining who is good and not great yet this season. After Vegas, will we have somewhat of a better picture about the rookies like Zane Smith and how they should perform all year?
Jeff: That’s fair, but emphasis on “somewhat.” Part of being a rookie is developing at different rates, and it might take some longer than others to find their footing. So if one lags behind the rest this weekend, that’s not necessarily indicative of how the whole season will go. That said, if you see a rookie come out and immediately run top 15 at Vegas, that’s a very positive sign to see how far along they are already and we can probably read a lot into that.
Jordan: Should Smith, Carson Hocevar or Josh Berry perform well it would seemingly indicate that they’re ahead of the rookie curve, though it feels unlikely either one of them will do that. We probably won’t get a sense of where the rookies truly stand until early summer.
NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK: I’m at it again with the track questions; you gave me a lot last week on Atlanta. What should newbies like me know about the Las Vegas Motor Speedway?
Jeff: Vegas is your standard 1.5-mile intermediate track, but that also means the racing is much more in the drivers’ control than at a place like Daytona or Atlanta. You won’t see much pack racing here except during the first few laps after a restart, and you should expect to see long green-flag runs where the field gets a bit strung out and separated. But for purists like myself, that’s also what real racing is. It’s a team and driver finding a way to make their car go faster than everyone else. We’ve yet to see the fastest car win a race this season in three attempts (including the Clash); Sunday might be our first chance, since it’s more of a straight-up competition.
Jordan: Jeff summarized Las Vegas’ characteristics well, and the only thing to add from this perspective is that this is a track where it’s not uncommon to see a late caution. And should this occur, the leader will find themselves in a predicament where whatever strategy they employ regarding whether to pit for tires or not pit, surely some of those behind them will do the opposite. These decisions scramble the running order, creating scenarios where an unlikely winner emerges. Such was the case when Alex Bowman won here in 2022.
