NASCAR at Sonoma odds and predictions: We like Tyler Reddick, have a couple long shots and more

1. We’ve seen some order restored to NASCAR this year, which leads us to wonder — did we like it better last year with a little chaos and unpredictability? And not the same guys up top every week?

Jeff: It depends if you’re asking from a betting perspective or entertainment perspective. Readers of this column probably prefer being able to have some historical results and data to lean on instead of making the wild guesses that often accompanied last year’s races. It’s much easier to make an educated prediction now or at least narrow the list of drivers who can win. But from an entertainment standpoint, last year’s regular season was about as fun as it gets.

Jordan: All depends on who’s winning and whether it makes for a good story. (One of the main tenets of being a sports reporter is you root for storylines.) There is something to be said about unpredictability where it feels like just about anyone can win on any given week. But across sports it’s not a bad thing to have a select few drivers/teams dominate thereby increasing the shock factor when an upset happens. And then from a betting perspective, you certainly have a better feel now on what’s likely to transpire.

2. In this week’s Top 5, Jeff took us on a roller coaster of emotion, praising Kyle Busch’s multiple victories this year but then suggesting he’s not yet a title contender. What more do you need to see from him to make you believe?

Jeff: Just consistency. It’s great Busch has won three times and is tied for the series lead in his first year with a new team. But the No. 8 team has finished 14th or worse nearly as many times as they’ve finished 13th or better (seven vs. eight). A championship contender needs to have much more consistent speed, and we just haven’t seen that out of Busch’s team yet.

Jordan: Like Jeff said, greater consistency would go a long way to labeling Busch as one of the title favorites. Leading more laps and winning more stages would also buoy his championship candidacy, as he currently ranks ninth in laps led and has just a single stage win. But winning can overcome a lot of shortcomings, and Busch’s ability to win means him winning a third championship certainly appears on the table.

NOOB QUESTION OF THE WEEK: Does staring down a week off after this race change anything about a driver’s approach? Will they be more aggressive knowing that they have a week to unwind? 

Jeff: That’s a great question and I’m not sure of the answer. Perhaps some of the drivers who aren’t very good road racers have an eye on the off-weekend – the lone one of the season – and will just be hoping to get through it. It’s possible others may feel emboldened to send it with the knowledge there won’t be immediate retaliation for an incident next weekend. But overall, I would expect the majority of drivers will focus on the task at hand and worry about the off-week afterward.

Jordan: Perhaps if a driver is struggling Sunday they may be more inclined to pack in and just try to get through the race as quickly as possible, regardless of where they finish. There is also something to be said for going into the off week on a high and feeling good about yourself and where your team is at. Plus, Sonoma is one of those races that drivers like to have on their resumes as having won.

3. Who is your pick to win this race? 

Jeff: Tyler Reddick has won three of the last five Cup Series road course races, including an impressive run at the Austin race in March. This weekend’s race is also being held at Reddick’s home track, as he grew up in a small town roughly two hours north of Sonoma. There isn’t much to lean on in terms of Reddick’s history at Sonoma – there was no race in his rookie season (2020) and his other two results are 19th and 35th (Reddick qualified fifth last year, but sped on pit road and later spun). But given his talent level on road courses, this weekend could be a sweet home track win for the driver of the No. 45.

Jordan: Reddick is a great pick considering his recent prowess on road courses. It also helps that his team can aggressively go after the win and not worry about points since they’re already essentially locked into the playoffs. But let’s not overlook another Northern California native, Kyle Larson, who’s also pretty stellar on road courses. Larson won here in 2021 and comes in with a Hendrick Motorsports team that’s demonstrated it has a lot of speed in its Chevrolets.

4. Do you have an underdog you like in this race?

Jeff: Michael McDowell (+4000 or 40/1) and Chase Briscoe+(5000) are intriguing picks at those odds. Briscoe can absolutely win on a road course and McDowell was in contention at Sonoma last year before settling for a third-place finish.

Jordan: Martin Truex Jr.’s three Sonoma wins is tops among all active drivers so that he’s listed at +1600 is eye catching. So is Ryan Blaney at +3200. And if you want someone with even bigger odds, Bubba Wallace is at +10000. Yes, Wallace has never won on a road course but he’s made significant strides, including a fifth at the Indianapolis road course last summer and a seventh on the Charlotte Roval in the fall.

5. What are you going to do on your week off? Looking forward to streaming anything?

Jeff: The NASCAR season is a grind, so I’m hoping to disconnect and not look at my phone very much. After the off-week, there will be races on 20 straight weekends to end the season. Jordan will still be trying to break all the big stories, though.

Jordan: What’s a vacation? There is work to do.

Ed. Note: Try Mrs. Davis; it’s fantastically weird!