NASCAR Cup Series predictions: A Corey LaJoie longshot pick, Hendrick penalty fallout and more
Let’s jump right into this week’s Q&A, with our resident experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, as the NASCAR Cup Series rolls into Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400.
1. Last year’s race was significant as the first time we saw the new Atlanta Motor Speedway, following a redesign. What did we learn from that race (and the later Quaker State 400)?
Jeff: When Atlanta announced its reconfiguration plans, I was skeptical it could create superspeedway-style racing on a 1.5-mile track. Welp, I was wrong. Atlanta indeed has pack racing that resembles Daytona and Talladega. It likely won’t last once the asphalt wears out. But for now? Treat this more as a superspeedway than an intermediate track with your bets.
Jordan: As it was conceived to be, Atlanta raced like a superspeedway where drafting and pack racing were prevalent. But to Jeff’s point, it will be fascinating to watch this weekend how Atlanta races go after a year of wear. It remains to be seen whether drafting and pack racing will be as it was a year ago and, if so, to what extent.
2. William Byron dominated last year’s QuikTrip 400, leading 111 laps. He led 41 in July before getting taken out by an accident. Ross Chastain finished second in both Atlanta races. Byron is 9-to-1 to win as the favorite, Chastain is 12-1 (4th best odds). Is Chastain the better bet here?
Jeff: I wouldn’t go for either of those guys. This is the type of race where a longshot could potentially win. Corey LaJoie could have pulled off the upset last summer until he was thwarted by Chase Elliott in the final laps. It might be better to spread your money on a few underdogs than try to pick one of the usual favorites this week, because Atlanta is a different beast now.
Jordan: You can’t go wrong with either Chastain or Byron, both of whom excel on superspeedways. But between the two, Chastain would be the pick simply because he has (slightly) higher odds, which means a better return on your investment.
3. Who’s a good long shot to focus on for this race?
Jeff: Look, you’re not going to learn much from qualifying or anything like that. So you’re pretty much looking at the drivers you believe to be good at drafting tracks and hope they find the track position to get up front. I know Jordan is going with LaJoie (+5000), but let’s think about some other names, as well. At the superspeedways, we’re always high on Justin Haley (+5000), who finished 11th and seventh in the Atlanta races last season. And while not so much a longshot, don’t overlook the group of great speedway racers that includes Daytona 500 champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2800) and former Daytona winner Erik Jones (+3300), who was fourth in the Atlanta summer race last year.
Jordan:LaJoie. LaJoie. LaJoie. Last year, he finished fifth here in the spring, then came back to nearly win the summer race. If you’re looking for a longshot to hit it big on Sunday, this is the best bet to do so.
4. It’s always nice to check in on the Truck Series, where Zane Smith is a heavy favorite to win the championship (+160). Do you see any value elsewhere or is he going to win?
Jeff: Smith is the defending champ in a series full of unproven or inexperienced drivers, so he’s rightfully the favorite. But as we know, the Championship 4 system creates a winner-take-all playoff finale with four drivers. Smith could win every single race until November and still lose the championship if he doesn’t win at Phoenix. That means if you can identify some of the other drivers who might make it, you’ll have a shot if Smith gets thwarted in a one-off race where anything can happen. If Carson Hocevar (+1800) starts winning races, he could be one to watch.
Jordan: While still early in the season, it appears the depth of competition in the Truck Series isn’t to the level it’s been at in recent years. As things stand, there are only a select group of drivers who inspire confidence that they can make a championship run. That list certainly includes Smith, a standout who is regarded as one of NASCAR’s top prospects. He may not win the title because of the unforgiving playoff format, but the likelihood is that he’s a factor all the way to the finale.
5. Back to Byron, who was just hammered as part of the Hendrick sanctions — he’s The Athletic’s No. 1 ranked driver, according to Jordan’s rankings. And it was a huge leap to the top spot, as he started the season 12th. Are the simulations they did during the offseason really the secret to his success?
Jeff: The simulations are in reference to the sessions Byron and Rudy Fugle did to focus on Las Vegas and Phoenix, both of which turned into wins. That said, the real secret to the success is likely fast cars across Hendrick Motorsports (penalties aside). Hendrick just seems to have incredible speed this year, and even with all four crew chiefs being out with suspensions, I don’t see that changing anytime soon. That said, Byron’s teammate Kyle Larson could easily have won the last two races as well, so it’s not just all about Byron at this point. Alex Bowman was the points leader before the penalties, and when Chase Elliott returns, he’ll be fast, too.
Jordan: We’ve been waiting for Byron to have a breakout season and by all appearances, it’s now happening. So while Larson could’ve won the past two weeks, let’s not overlook that Byron got the better of Larson on overtime restarts in each of his two wins, and deserved each victory. If he runs his winning streak to three on Sunday it would surprise no one.
6. The penalties handed down to the Hendrick racers — do you think that will give them a sense of urgency and we’ll see riskier driving as they fight to get back the points lost? Or will this have no real effect on how they approach the races and courses?
Jeff: I don’t think they’ll need to take risks because their cars are so fast that they’ll get out front anyway. The lost points hurt for sure, but the only way to get those back for the playoffs is to win stages and races. As long as they have fast cars, they’ll be OK. This will be a story all season because it affects the playoff seeding, but a Hendrick car could easily still win the championship. They just need to keep doing what they’ve been doing.
Jordan: I delved into this in my column, but the CliffsNotes version is that as long as Hendrick continues to bring fast cars to the track each week Bowman and Larson should each be expected to win one of the remaining 22 regular season races to clinch a playoff spot. Therefore the impact of the penalties could have minimal impact. However, if that speed advantage disappears, or for whatever reason(s) Bowman and Larson fail to win a race, then the penalties will have a considerable impact as neither can fall back on points to snag a wild card berth.
Q&A FOR THE NASCAR NOOBS
1. We watched the pre-race show a couple weeks ago and became Daniel Suárez fans. He’s had mixed results this season (although three Top 10s!), he’s 16th in our rankings, and he’s currently 50-1 to win the Cup title. Should we check our “I like this guy a lot!”-ness at the door and stay away from the 50-1 odds? Or is he an improving driver who could get some wins along the way?
Jeff: Suárez winning the Cup Series title would be a huge shock at this point. In the immediate future, he needs to focus on outrunning his Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain. Using the driver comparison tool on the Racing Reference site, we can see Chastain has finished ahead of Suárez 25 times in the 40 starts they’ve been teammates (dating to the start of last season). During that time, Chastain has an average finishing position 2.8 places higher than Suárez. In that sense, we can’t start talking about Suárez as a championship threat until he regularly outperforms his own teammate.
Jordan: Maybe Suárez will ascend to another level that we’ve yet to see from him, but it’s hard to envision that he’s ready to win a Cup title. He needs to run up front with greater frequency, win more stages and demonstrate the kind of consistency that propelled Chastain to a championship runner-up finish last year. If he can do all that, then we can take him seriously as a title contender.
2. Jimmie Johnson raced in Daytona and we haven’t seen him since. What’s his deal? Can he just show up and race whenever? If he decides to jump back in, will he be a title contender?
Jeff: Johnson is part owner of the rebranded Legacy Motor Club (formerly Petty GMS) and any team can bring an “open” (non-franchised) car to a race and attempt to qualify it into the field. That’s what Johnson is attempting to do in his starts using the No. 84 car. There are four spots available in the field for these “open” cars and most of the time, four don’t even show up. So Johnson typically won’t have a problem making the show when he races. That said, use caution. He’s not running full-time and has very limited experience with the Next Gen car after running IndyCar for the last two seasons. Johnson is also 47 and hasn’t won a NASCAR race since 2017. While it’s tempting to look at him and go, “Hey! Seven-time champ!” the reality is a top-10 would be a great day for him. You shouldn’t expect him to end up in victory lane at this point.
Jordan: We’re going to see Johnson return next week as he recently announced he’ll enter the Cup race at Circuit of The Americas. And he’s also going to run at Charlotte (oval) in May and the downtown Chicago street course in July. And don’t be shocked if he adds some other races to his schedule before the year is out.
This Week’s Reading List
(Top photo: James Gilbert/Getty Images; Daniel Suárez photo: John David Mercer / USA Today; Corey LaJoie in-line and racing Zane Smith by Mike Dinovo / USA Today)
