NASCAR Food City 500 Bristol Motor Speedway Odds, Picks, Bets

NASCAR heads back East after the west coast swing to take on the .533-mile concrete “Thunder Valley” in Bristol, Tennessee. After three seasons of bringing in enough dirt to cover the entire surface and turn Bristol Motor Speedway into a dirt track for the spring race, it’s back to the normal concrete oval. Out with the dirt, in with the old track. Now let’s take a look at the NASCAR Cup Series Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway odds, picks, and best bets.

NASCAR Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds, Picks and Best Bets

The Food City 500 will take place on Sunday, March 17th, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The race will be televised on Fox, and PRN will have the call on the radio. NASCAR has been to the concrete surface twice in the NextGen car, with Denny Hamlin winning the 2023 night race and Chris Buescher grabbing the victory in the 2022 race.

Last week it was Christopher Bell marching through the field late in the race at Phoenix after a slow pit stop to grab his seventh career NASCAR Cup Series win. Toyota became the first manufacturer in NASCAR history to have five different drivers lead at least 50 or more laps in a single race.

NASCAR Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds to Win:

Kyle Larson +400
Denny Hamlin +500
Christopher Bell +500
William Byron +1100
Ryan Blaney +1100
Chris Buescher +1100
Ty Gibbs +1300
Brad Keselowski +1400
Tyler Reddick +1500
Kyle Busch +1600
Joey Logano +1800
Ross Chastain +1800
Martin Truex Jr +2000
Chase Elliott +2000
Bubba Wallace +4000
Erik Jones +4000
Alex Bowman +4500
Michael McDowell +6000
Noah Gragson +6500
Chase Briscoe +6500
Daniel Suarez +8000
Carson Hocevar +8000
Austin Dillion +10000
Ricky Stenhouse +10000
Josh Berry +10000
Austin Cindric +10000
AJ Allmendinger +15000
John Hunter Nemechek +15000
Corey Lajoie +15000
Ryan Preece +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Daniel Hemric +30000
Zane Smith +50000
Justin Haley +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Kaz Grala +100000

NASCAR Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway Odds, Picks and Best Bets

Ty Gibbs Over Kyle Busch (-110)

Kyle Busch is getting a lot of respect from the books this week due to his history at Bristol Motor Speedway. Kyle has eight wins and 15 top-10 finishes in his 35 career cup series starts. It’s been a different story for Busch in the NextGen car, though. In two starts, he’s finished 34th & 20th.

There’s an asterisk on the 2022 finish where he was running top 10 when his motor let loose. Tossing out the clash because it’s completely different, and the two superspeedways, Busch, had horrific runs the last two weeks that have a lot of questions surrounding this RCR team. The 22nd last week and the 26th at Las Vegas are not great runs for this #8 team.

The young Ty Gibbs, as we predicted in the off-season on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast, the young star has risen to the challenge. Finishes fifth at Las Vegas, followed up by his career-best third last week at Phoenix.

Gibbs finished a strong fifth place in the fall race here at Bristol. Gibbs led 86 laps in his last Xfinity Series start here before trouble ended his day early.

This one is pretty simple: expect the veteran in Busch to continue to struggle until we see something different out of either driver in the Richard Childress Racing camp. Get behind the young star grandson of legendary NFL coach and car owner Joe Gibbs and ride each driver’s momentum, which is clearly moving in different directions.

Ross Chastain Top 10 Finish (-120)

The Watermelon Man has been on a top-10 run. Coming off a solid sixth-place run at Phoenix after finishing fourth at Las Vegas. Chastain also won the race at Phoenix last fall in dominating fashion. Only the aforementioned Ty Gibbs (8.8) has a better average finish in 2024 than Chastain (9.5).

In his two starts at Bristol, Chastain has finished 23rd and sixth. His 23rd-place run last season seemed to just be a miss on the setup, Chastain finished top 10 in stage one but fell back after that.

Chastain was extremely fast on intermediate tracks last season (Bristol uses the intermediate package) and finished third at Richmond. Look for momentum to carry the Watermelon Man to another top-10 Sunday at Bristol.

Noah Gragson Top 10 Finish (+275)

We’re going to stick in the top 10 market for this next bet. Noah Gragson has been a man on a mission thus far in 2024. Greasing struggled in his rookie year with Legacy Motor Club in 2023 before he was suspended and ultimately decided to step away from the team.

After stepping away from the sport for the rest of the year, Gragson landed a ride in the Stewart Haas Racing #10 Ford after Aric Almirola retired from full-time competition.

Gragson showed up focused and ready to prove to everyone he’s a dog behind the wheel. So far, mission accomplished for the 25-year-old driver. Greasing just missed a top 10 last week as he fell out of the top 10 in the closing laps on old tires at Phoenix, ultimately settling for a 12th-place finish. The week before at his home track in Las Vegas, Gragson scored a sixth-place finish.

If not for a 35-point penalty assessed to the team for illegal parts, Gragson would be top 15 in points and currently in the playoffs. Gragson hasn’t made a start here on Bristol’s concrete surface in the NASCAR Cup Series. But in his most recent NASCAR Xfinity Series, Gragson started on the track and captured the win.

Brad Keselowski to Win (+1400)

It’s been 102 races since Brad Keselowski last won a NASCAR Cup Series race. The 2021 Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway was the last time Keselowski visited victory lane as a driver. Since then, Brad left Penske Racing to join Roush Fenway Racing (now Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing) as a driver-owner.

Keselowski was leading in the 2022 Bristol Night race and was well on his way to victory. Until a flat tire sent his #6 Ford onto pit lane for service, Keselowski would still make it to victory lane that night, but only as a car owner as his teammate Chris Buscher was able to win the race.

It all ends here. There is no 103-race winless streak for Keselowski—not this time. My Bristol pick, Brad, is going to show up, a man on a mission, knowing this is his best chance at snapping that streak and virtually locking up a playoff spot. It’s Keselowski week.

Be sure to tune into the NASCAR GAMBLING PODCAST for more bets for the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity, and Truck Series, along with F1 and IndyCar bets, Underdog picks, DFS, and more!