NASCAR Odds, Daytona: Chase Elliott favored for Coke Zero Sugar 400
Whether you prefer the craps table, as most folks describe a Daytona race, or the slots, as Chase Elliott recently suggested, these things are almost nothing but a game of chance.
Almost.
Some drivers have a knack for the big-pack racing at Daytona (and Talladega), and on the occasions they avoid the tow truck, they nearly always appear among the leaders when laps grow short and the knuckles glow white.
The tow truck, however, is the great equalizer in these things.
And basically, that’s why you see numbers like those below. Every week, away from the two superspeedways, you’ll get about three-to-six drivers paying under $1,000 for a $100 bet. This week at Daytona, for the Coke Zero Sugar 400, look below and tell us how many you see.
Zippo.
When wagers are all over the map, the odds makers adjust accordingly, and we end up with a favorite at +1,100, one week after he was just +350 as favorite at Watkins Glen.
These are the weeks where you (take your pick) roll the dice or pull the handle and potentially win big, because these are the weeks where you can cash in on a Ricky Stenhouse, Michael McDowell, Austin Cindric or Austin Dillon — four of the past five Daytona winners.
Chase Elliott heads up the not-so-favored Daytona favorites
Chase Elliott +1,100; Ryan Blaney +1,200; Kyle Busch +1,200; Joey Logano +1,200; Denny Hamlin +1,200; William Byron +1,400
If gamblers had to literally pull their hearts from their chest cavities at the betting window, they’d be a tad more reluctant to bet with the ol’ pumper. Since that rule isn’t yet in place, we see Billy Clyde atop the odds board, in spite of his Daytona record (zero wins, several behind-the-walls).
Next wave: Bubba Wallace getting more love than Kyle Larson
Chris Buescher +1,600; Bubba Wallace +1,800; Ross Chastain +2,000; Ricky Stenhouse +2,000; Kyle Larson +2,000; Daniel Suarez +2,000
It’s not every week you see Kyle Larson lumped in with Stenhouse and Suarez, behind Buescher and Bubba. This is plate-race math.
Martin Truex probably belongs down here
Martin Truex +2,200; Austin Dillon +2,200; Austin Cindric +2,200; Aric (With an A) Almirola +2,200
Truex is 0-for-73 at plate-races during his otherwise Hall of Fame career. Hall of Famers Mark Martin and Rusty Wallace were a combined 0-for-100 at Daytona. True story.
Mid-pack faves: What’s Michael McDowell gotta do?
Tyler Reddick +2,500; Christopher Bell +2,500; Alex Bowman +2,500; Ty Gibbs +2,800; Michael McDowell +2,800; Erik (With a K) Jones +3,000
McDowell dominated at Indy and was looking dominant last week at the Glen before pit miscues sent him reeling, so he has positive mojo. And he’s a quality plate-racer. Hmmm.
Some others: Few takers for a glorious Kevin Harvick Daytona sendoff
Kevin Harvick +3,500; AJ Allmendinger +4,500; Corey LaJoie +5,000; Harrison Burton +6,500; BJ McLeod +100,000
For much of the past eight years, Harvick hasn’t been much of a Daytona/Talladega factor. If he’s still nursing that rib injury, this is one of the physically easiest races for a driver. So there’s that.
The Props
Driver-versus-driver bets are easier to win but don’t pay much, and at Daytona it’s much more a coin flip than elsewhere. You ever lose a coin flip? It sucks, largely because outside forces are in charge.
So let’s look at some tempting picks for a top-3 or top-5.
◾ Brad Keselowski is paying $350 (top-3) and $160 (top-5).
◾ Bubba Wallace is at $500 and $225.
◾ Ricky Stenhouse at $550 and $250.
◾ Ty Gibbs at $800 and $350.
◾ Aric Almirola at $600 and $275.
Here’s why this category is so tempting. A year ago, Austin Dillon was the (borderline) surprising winner, with Tyler Reddick and reigning Daytona 500 champ Austin Cindric right behind him.
Look at the next six finishers: Landon Cassill, Noah Gragson, Cody Ware, BJ McLeod, Martin Truex, David Ragan.
Toss out Truex and you’d think someone had turned the results sheet upside-down.
With that in mind, check this out …
◾ Corey LaJoie is paying $1,300 and $650 for a top-3 or top-5. All six of his career top-10s, and both top-5s, have come at plate-races (that now includes Atlanta, by the way).
On the manufacturer front, while Chevy is offering +105 and Ford +155, Toyota is at +380. Given how Denny Hamlin drives one, and given how he’s often the man to beat at these things, that is also tempting.
Last Week
I had Tyler Reddick to win and he never sniffed the champagne, settling for eighth. William Byron came to Watkins Glen riding a mini-slump, his +2,200 showed as much, and he won. That's racin'.
On the “sure thing” prop bet, it was Daniel Suarez over Christopher Bell. For a while. Bell got third, Suarez 22nd.
Let’s move along.
This Week
Call it a hunch, and frankly that’s as good as anything this week, but I’m thinking I was a week early with Tyler Reddick. Half of the weekly $100 allotment goes on Reddick for the win, which would be worth $1,250 at his +2500 odds.
They don’t call it gambling for nothin’. Gimme Corey LaJoie at +1300 for a finish of third or better — I’ll take that $650 in mid-sized bills, please and thank you.
