NASCAR Odds, Michigan: Kevin Harvick not favored? Chase Elliott 11th?
Certain horses for certain courses.
That’s the golf term. Think Jack Nicklaus at Augusta, Tiger Woods at Bay Hill, me at the Pirate’s Island putt-putt in Daytona Beach Shores.
You get the drift.
Anyway, Kevin Harvick is a certain horse for a certain course. And though he’s very much into golf, his driving on this course involves intentional left turns and more ball-speed than Bryson Dechambeau on Red Bull.
How dominant is Kevin Harvick at Michigan International Speedway? Think David Pearson at Darlington, Dale Earnhardt at Talladega, Richard Petty at … at … well, several places.
Such things just don’t happen in the 21st Century, you’d think. But there it is in black-and-white. Harvick has won four of the last five races at Michigan, five of the last seven. He was just 1-for-35 before that, though about a decade ago he posted four straight runner-up finishes (and five seconds in a six-race span).
Still, there he sits on DraftKings’ odds board, behind four other racers entering this weekend’s 400-miler, sponsored by FireKeepers Casino, an outfit that might not agree with that pecking order.
But then again, Harvick has led laps in just one of the past eight races. And while he’s finished top-10 each of the past three weeks (including a pair of fourths), he was on a three-week stinker before that. Then again, precious few 2023 racers haven’t had a serious run of egg-laying this season.
This being Harvick’s final season, everyone (OK, most everyone) would like to see him hoist one more trophy, maybe two. Maybe more. And aside from the two remaining plate-races (one at Daytona, one at Talladega), where anyone can win, this week at Michigan seems to be his best chance.
Pardon the low-hanging fruit, but Michigan really does appear to be his Happy Place.
OK, let’s hit the grid and peel off some rent money ….
Michigan favorites: Shouldn’t Kevin Harvick be favored?
Denny Hamlin +550; Kyle Larson +700; William Byron +800; Martin Truex Jr. +800; Kyle Busch +800; Kevin Harvick +850
While Hamlin hasn’t won at Michigan since first-term Obama, he’s been on a decent recent roll and he does always lead laps at this track.
Chase Elliott has never won at Michigan
Ryan Blaney +1,000; Tyler Reddick +1,200; Christopher Bell +1,200; Joey Logano +1,400; Chase Elliott +1,500; Bubba Wallace +1,500
Bubba led 22 laps and finished second last year at Michigan, in case you’re wondering why he’s a smidge higher on the board here than you might expect. Plus, he ran well last week. And by the way, your eyes aren't lying ... Chase is tied for 11th on the odds board. Weird world right now.
Can lightning strike twice for Chris Buescher?
Ross Chastain +1,800; Brad Keselowski +2,200; Ty Gibbs +2,500; Chris Buescher +4,000; Alex Bowman +4,000
Kez is winless at Michigan, which seems weird, since he spent much of his career driving for Roger Penske and now partners with Jack Roush, two men who know where the bones are buried in the Motor City.
Elsewhere on NASCAR’s Michigan odds board
Daniel Suarez +6,000; Noah Gragson +8,000; Austin Dillon +9,000; Ryan Preece +15,000; Austin Cindric +25,000; Cole Custer +100,000
Noah Gragson? Someone help me out. Given the horrors of his rookie Cup season, he’s been among the Tail End Charlies on the odds board for a couple months now. Why is he suddenly mid-pack? This isn’t like a bunch of money suddenly showing up on the Colts to win this year’s Super Bowl, but still weird.
Prop ’em up: Ross Chastain vs. Bubba Wallace; Ryan Preece ‘on a roll’
It’s almost like they assume, if Harvick doesn’t win, he’ll come close, which must explain his payoff of just +240 for a top-3 and +105 for a top-5. Goodness.
Elsewhere …
● Chase Elliott is +400 for a top-3, +185 for a top-5.
● Chris Buescher, last week’s somewhat surprising winner, is +1,100 for a top-3 (really?) and +500 for a top-5. One-hit wonder, the bookmakers and bettors are thinking.
● Not sure how much you were paying attention, but Ryan Preece finished fifth last week at Richmond. It was his third top-5 in 137 career Cup Starts, and his first top-10 of this entire damn season. Do the gamblers think he’s on the front edge of a roll? Not so much, he’s not only +15,000 for the win, but +5,000 for a top-3 and +1,200 for another top-5 (it’s not like he’s due, after all).
● On the driver-versus-driver front, we have Ross Chastain (+105) vs. Bubba Wallace (-135). I like Bubba here, even at a lesser payout, because these days we like just about anybody over the deep-funk Ross the Boss.
● Alex Bowman (+105) vs. Ty Gibbs (-135), and again, Bowman has been so bad, I’d pick a sleepy school-bus driver over him at this point.
● Here are your manufacturer odds: Chevy at +140, Toyota at +155, Ford at +225, as if Ford (aka Kevin Harvick) hasn’t owned Michigan in recent years.
Last week
Man, I swear, things were looking good. I had half of the weekly $100 allotment on Tyler Reddick to finish top-3, and he spent nearly all day there. Yep, nearly.
And I had Billy the Kid, William Byron, to win, and he was in the mix right up until he wasn’t.
Them’s the breaks, they say.
This week
I’m going with the badge bet for a prop. Give me Ford to find Victory Lane, and why not?
And for the win, seriously, you have to respect major trends, right? Kevin Harvick has been so dominant at Michigan, you halfway expect them to put his mailbox in Victory Lane.
How could you pick anyone but Harvick to win this week? It’s easy, right?
Too easy, I’m thinking.
Give me another Ford dude, Joey Logano, for the win. He’s at +1,400, so by my publicly-educated math, on a $50 wager that would bring $700.
And the other $50 on Ford, at +225, would pay back $112.50, give or take.
