Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds

Aaron Nola's season-long numbers may not be up to snuff but his underlying metrics tell a better story and we expect him to make easy work of the Nationals tonight. Find out why in our MLB betting picks below.

The fourth and final game of this NL East series gets underway Thursday evening with the second-place Philadelphia Phillies hosting the fifth-place Washington Nationals.

Wednesday’s contest saw some history as newly acquired Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter for Philadelphia en route to its 7-0 victory over Washington.

Will the Phillies follow up that performance with another commanding victory, or can the Nationals enact their revenge? Read our MLB betting picks below to find out. 

Nationals vs Phillies odds

Nationals vs Phillies predictions

Right-hander Aaron Nola is slated to take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, and he could be a good candidate to back. Through 23 starts this season, Nola is 9-8 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

While those surface-level stats are not up to typical Nola standards, his underlying metrics suggest that a strong finish to the season is looming. Currently, the right-hander boasts a 3.86 xERA.

Specifically, we’re going to back Nola in the strikeout department. Entering Thursday, he ranks in the 64th percentile in K%, 54th percentile in Whiff%, and 92nd percentile in chase rate.

Currently, you can find Nola’s strikeout prop at 5.5 at FanDuel. He's recorded 6+ strikeouts in each of his past six starts.

Washington has struggled at the dish this season, which was thoroughly evidenced in Wednesday’s no-hitter. This year, the Nationals rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs.

This lineup should be fade-worthy once again, at least in the strikeout department. Through 72 career plate appearances against Nola, they possess a troubling 34.7 K% and 32.4 Whiff%.

Nola has recorded at least 6+ in seven of his past 11 starts against Washington and should do so again tonight.

My best bet: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-128)

Nationals vs Phillies same-game parlay

Aaron Nola Over 5.5 strikeouts (-128)

Over 9 (-115)

Phillies ML (-260)

We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, now let’s look at the other two.

Though Nola is primed for positive regression, we shouldn't expect him to throw a gem in a similar manner to Lorenzen’s performance on Wednesday. His 3.86 xERA is a step up from his 4.58 ERA, but there's still room for error. 

With that said, Philadelphia should have no issue pouring in the runs to give him the proper amount of support. Slated to take the mound for Washington is left-hander Patrick Corbin, who is putting together yet another poor campaign.

Through 23 starts, he's 7-11 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. His underlying metrics suggest that regression is unlikely, ranking in the fourth percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG.

The Phillies rank higher than the Nationals this season in runs scored per game, SLG, OPS, and home runs.

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Nationals vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Philadelphia opened as a -295 favorite and was quickly bet down to the current price of -260. This line movement makes sense considering Nola’s underwhelming surface-level stats, especially when laying nearly three dollars.

With that said, -260 still makes the Phillies a massive favorite, and deservedly so considering they're better than the Nationals across the board. That brings us to the total, which opened at 9 and has stayed at that number.

There will likely be some give-and-pull with this line, considering Nola’s expected positive regression and the fact that Corbin is a massive liability every time he pitches. As long as Nola allows a couple of runs, Philadelphia should have no issue contributing to the Over against Corbin.

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Trend to know

Aaron Nola has recorded at least six strikeouts in each of his past six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Phillies

Nationals vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Patrick Corbin (7-11, 5.03 ERA): Corbin is putting together yet another poor season, and his underlying metrics suggest more of the same to close out the campaign. Currently, he ranks in the fourth percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG. Furthermore, through 19 career starts against Philadelphia, Corbin is 6-9 with a 4.96 ERA and 1.51 WHIP.

Aaron Nola (9-8, 4.58 ERA): Despite a relatively poor season by his standards, Nola’s underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. This positive regression could come to fruition against the Nationals, a team he boasts a 1.52 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against over his past four starts.