NBA Best Bets Today: Plays and analysis for Friday, April 7th

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page. 

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Playoff Scenario: None

This game and the matchup between Detroit and Indiana will have similar analysis. If you’ve read this column regularly you’ll know what angle to look for here. We’ve now had, by my account, five instances of two eliminated teams meeting each other and all five games have gone over the total. Last night, San Antonio and Portland met one another and the game sailed over the total with a quick pace of 105 possessions each. These games tend to take on an AAU type flow, and this is another candidate to do so. Six players are out for Charlotte, but as we saw last night when 23 players for both teams had an injury designation, we can still get a high-scoring affair.

Bet: OVER 229.5 (0.5u)

Playoff Scenario: None

Just like the game between Houston and Charlotte, this contest fits the parameters of an over play due to both teams being eliminated from contention. However, this is one where I would exercise a bit more caution. Detroit almost ruined the trend on Sunday with its inefficient offense, and that game against Orlando needed 71 points in the fourth quarter to get over the number. Indiana is resting its usual pieces tonight, but Myles Turner is questionable to play. It would be a surprise to see Turner on the floor tonight but his presence can alter the total. Still, let’s take a small gamble that he won’t be available and that the Pistons will do their part.

Bet: OVER 230.5

Best Bet Recap

Rockets/Hornets OVER 229.5 (0.5u)

Pistons/Pacers OVER 230.5 (0.5u)

NBA Games & Odds

Playoff Scenario: Miami has clinched the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. It can still finish sixth, but it needs to win out and Brooklyn needs to lose out.

Miami is coming on no rest with the top play-in seed locked up. There is no reporting as to how the Heat will handle this game, but there is a high probability the team uses this as an opportunity to rest given the opportunity Brooklyn has tonight to lock up the sixth seed. Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris and Deni Avdija are all out for Washington, so we’re seeing 6.5 consensus this morning. However, bettors should be ready to pounce on that number if Miami rests its top players tonight, as this number will come crashing down.

Playoff Scenario: Atlanta can clinch the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference with a win tonight. Philadelphia has clinched the third seed in the Eastern Conference and can finish no higher or lower. 

This is a classic example of a team potentially being overvalued by the betting market because it has something to play for. It has already been reported that Joel Embiid will not play tonight, but the status of James Harden is unknown. Harden has been dealing with a sore Achilles, so it would track that Philadelphia wants to give him some time off after he played 28 minutes last night. Until the injury report is officially revealed its impossible to act on this game, but remember that just because a team needs to win it does not mean that it will cover. Atlanta is the fifth worst defensive team in the NBA since Feb. 13 and that is not changing because it is motivated to win this game.

Playoff Scenario: Brooklyn can clinch the sixth seed in the Eastern Conference with a win tonight.

Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Gary Harris and Franz Wagner will all miss this game tonight, so Brooklyn is now a prohibitive favorite in the betting market. There is not much movement off the opening side, but the total came crashing down as a result of the injury report for the Magic. In these situations there is more value in looking toward the underdog than the favorite. The situation for the Nets combined with the lack of personnel for the Magic combines to make an inflated favorite. 

Playoff Scenario: Toronto has clinched the ninth seed in the Eastern Conference. It can still finish eighth, but it needs to win out and Atlanta needs to lose out. Boston has clinched the second seed in the Eastern Conference and can finish no higher or lower. 

Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon are all questionable to play tonight, and with nothing on the line for Boston it is likely all three do not see the floor tonight. Toronto does have some motivation here, as it can catch Atlanta should it slip down the stretch, but the probability of that happening is 4% according to PlayoffStatus.com. Even if the Raptors take the court with their starting group there is no guarantee they play the entire second half. This number is heading toward Toronto due to the injury report for Boston, but it's a short number for a team that, as of now, will still start Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.

Playoff Scenario: New Orleans’ magic number to clinch at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference is two. It can still finish as high as fifth, but it does not control its own destiny to do so. It can still finish as low as ninth as well. New York has clinched the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference and can finish no higher or lower.

Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle are unavailable tonight, and RJ Barrett is questionable to play. Brunson is an impactful absence for New York, but it seems that Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, Mitchell Robinson and a vast majority of this Knicks rotation will play tonight. Still, the market is pushing this number for New Orleans up to 8.5 at some shops, and it seems to be another case of overvaluing motivation to win. The Pelicans were overvalued in a loss to Sacramento on Tuesday night, and it took overtime to get a cover over Memphis as a 6-point favorite. New York has outscored opponents by 24.7 points per 100 possessions when Quickley and Grimes are on the floor without Randle and Brunson. It is by no means a team that is this big of an underdog on the road to New Orleans should Quickley and Grimes get starting workloads.

Playoff Scenario: Memphis can clinch the second seed in the Western Conference with a win tonight.

Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez and Khris Middleton are all out tonight because Milwaukee has absolutely nothing on the line. Meanwhile, Memphis can clinch the second seed, so the Grizzlies are playing most of their personnel tonight. As I have mentioned in this article numerous times, there is little value in pouncing on teams like Memphis which are in favorable situations, but including them on a moneyline parlay with Brooklyn, Atlanta and Dallas - which pays out +122 according to our VSiN parlay calculator - is not a terrible way to go.

Playoff Scenario: Dallas can still finish 10th in the West, but it does not control its own destiny to do so. It must win out and Oklahoma City must lose out.

Playoff Scenario: Golden State can clinch at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference with a win tonight. It can finish as high as fifth but it does not control its own destiny to do so. Sacramento can still finish second, but it needs to win out and Memphis needs to lose out.

Playoff Scenario: Los Angeles’ magic number to clinch at least the eighth seed in the Western Conference is two. It can still finish as high as fifth, but it does not control its own destiny to finish in any of the higher seeds. Phoenix has clinched the fourth seed in the Western Conference and can finish no higher or lower.