NBA Best Bets Today: Plays and analysis for Monday, January 30th
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Best Bets
Rudy Gobert has been consistently designated as questionable on the injury report for some time now, but he’s played each of the last four games for Minnesota so that is more like a probable tag. If that is the case then the Timberwolves will be in a good position to keep its recent run intact. Since the beginning of January Minnesota is 11-4 SU/10-3-1 ATS with a +5.4 net rating. Their offense has been much better, averaging 118.0 points per 100 possessions, but it is the defense that has stolen the show. The Timberwolves’ 112.6 defensive rating is fifth best in the league during this stretch, and their 17.4% turnover rate is the highest in that time frame. Gobert’s presence will be key to defend against a Sacramento team which lives in the paint and should he play this number should close with Minnesota as a short favorite. I'll bet on him playing through his usual questionable status.
Bet: Timberwolves (PK)
Phoenix improved to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games after a comfortable win over San Antonio on Saturday. Since both Cameron Johnson and Chris Paul returned from injury Phoenix’s level of defensive play has been much better, and over the course of this six-game run they have allowed only 105.6 points per 100 possessions to opponents. That is where this matchup is going to be won, as Toronto is on an incredible run with its offensive production recently. Since Jan. 10 the Raptors have averaged 123.4 points per 100 possessions, and they have the seventh best offensive rating in January (119.7). The question here is the number. The Raptors were in Portland catching 4.5 and now are only 1.5-point underdogs against a similarly rated opponent. Bettors should expect this number to move in the home team’s direction as the day goes along.
Bet: Suns (-1.5)
Best Bet Recap
Timberwolves (PK)
Suns (-1.5)
NBA Odds & Games
Joel Embiid is questionable to play this one with foot soreness, and given his performance on Saturday against Denver he deserves a night off. His presence obviously impacts what this number is going to be at close, so clarity on his status is a must. Philadelphia has a -2.4 net rating when Embiid is off the floor and their defense allows 116.2 points per 100 possessions. They run more frequently off live rebounds without him (27.0% of possessions) and have some really strong guard-oriented lineups they use in his place. The most used group without Embiid - James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker - is +15.0 with a 125.5 offensive rating. The total has started to creep already and is 233 consensus.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis will not play tonight for Los Angeles, and Ben Simmons will sit for Brooklyn. That means Russell Westbrook moves into the starting lineup, and the minutes in which Westbrook has been on the floor without Davis and James have been poor for the Lakers. Los Angeles is -16.5 per 100 possessions in the solo Westbrook possessions with a 124.9 defensive rating. There is no positive when it comes to the offense either, outside of a high rate of transition possessions off live rebounds (32.4%). Once a points, rebounds and assists prop is posted for Westbrook it might be the way to go, but the numbers would tell us the Lakers are in poor position to cover even a number like this without its two best players.
Oklahoma City is 9-4 SU/11-2 ATS in January with a +9.0 net rating. The Thunder’s offensive production has been incredible during this run, as the team is averaging 122.3 points per 100 possessions over these 13 games. If that level of production continues it will be a problem for Golden State, which has had its issues on the road all season long. The Warriors are a 6-18 SU/8-16 ATS away from home this season, and its defense has allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time and the most made free throws (24.6) per 100 field goal attempts. They did handle a recent road trip well, going 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS in a five-game trip two weeks ago, but it's hardly a sample size of success worth using as evidence that the road woes have been cured.
Luka Doncic missed the Mavericks’ loss to the Jazz with the ankle sprain he suffered in Phoenix, and he is questionable to play here against Detroit. As usual, the only way bettors can get involved here is if they know what his status will be. Without Doncic on the floor Dallas is averaging 108.0 points per 100 possessions and has a -7.2 net rating. Christian Wood remains out as well, so this offense, like we have already seen over the last two games, will be challenged to find some consistency if Doncic cannot go. The Pistons are not the best defensive team in the world by any stretch, so there is certainly an outcome in which the Mavericks score efficiently tonight without Doncic.
