NBA Christmas Day Best Bets, Props: Suns vs Mavericks, Jayson Tatum, Celtics vs Lakers

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his favorite player prop and game pick for the NBA’s Christmas Day slate.

Jayson Tatum O/U 37.5 Points + Rebounds vs. Lakers

The Lakers and Celtics meet for a classic East Coast versus West Coast rivalry game. Jayson Tatum is the focus for me as Boston is laying -3 points as the favorite in Los Angeles.

In his past four meetings against the Lakers, Tatum is 4-0 to the Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds. He scored 30, 44, 34, and 37 points with eight-plus rebounds in all four contests (two double-doubles).

Tatum has scored at least 27 points in seven of the previous eight meetings versus the Lakers and dominated last year on Christmas Day. The Celtics’ star dropped 41 points and finished with seven rebounds and five assists.

On Christmas Day, the stars come out and this should be one of the competitive games on the slates will limited blowout potential. I will ride with Tatum Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds at -110 odds out to 38.5.

I like the double-double and 30-plus point potential in this game for Tatum. I wouldn’t talk you off his points or rebounding Over as pivots.

Pick: Jayson Tatum Over 37.5 Points + Rebounds (1u)

Mavericks at Suns (-4.5): O/U 237.5

The Mavericks and Suns meet for the Christmas nightcap and I target the first half here as it’s -200 odds that I pass out before midnight because I ate too many cookies.

Dallas ranks 24th in the NBA with 60.0 first-half points per game allowed and that number has risen to 63.0 over the past three games and 65.0 in the previous five.

In the past five games during first-half play only, Dallas’ defense ranks 28th in opponent field goal percentage (52.7), 18th in three-point defense (38.6%), and 22nd in free-throw attempts permitted (11.8). The Mavericks rank 23rd in defensive net rating, and 9th in possessions and pace, so the Suns’ offense shouldn’t have many problems.

The Suns scored 61 and 54 points in their last two games on the road versus the Blazers and Kings. Phoenix is 11th with 59.7 first-half points per game at home and 58.8 on the year (9th), so this 60.5 team total is right on the money.

These two teams have not met yet this season and if Derrick Lively is out for the Mavericks, then the Suns really shouldn’t have many problems scoring.

I played the Suns 1H Team Total Over 60.5 at -118 odds and would go to 61.5 before pivoting to the Suns 1H spread of -2.5 or -3.

Pick: Suns 1H Team Total Over 60.5 (1u)

Season Record: 14-8 (63.6%) +5.5u

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