NBA Finals 2023: Jimmy Butler bouncing back in Game 2 is very safe bet

In many ways, Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals was an abject disaster for the Miami Heat. As the Denver Nuggets cruised to a 104-93 win — where it felt like Nikola Jokic was on masterful autopilot — the Heat floundered, putting in one of their worst shooting performances of the playoffs.

One of the players who struggled the most, in particular, was Jimmy Butler.

Butler has been the Heat’s driving catalyst to his second Finals berth since 2020. But in Game 1, the star forward recorded a meager 13 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists on 6-of-14 shooting while failing to initiate the action as much as possible.

If the Heat are to make this Finals series a worthwhile battle, Butler simply must play better and take more on his plate offensively. Given Butler’s clutch precedent of rising to the moment, especially on the road, a stellar (and more aggressive) performance from him in Game 2 should be a safe baseline expectation.

Oddsmakers with BetMGM have set Butler’s Game 2 points over and under at 26.5. I, for one, think that’s way too low for someone that elevates their game and then some this time of year. Miami remains a massive straight-up underdog and will need all the help it can get on the road in Denver.

Ten of Butler’s 18 postseason games this spring have featured the Heat star recording more than 26 points. He’s scored at least 20 points at an efficient rate on 15 of those 18 occasions. Miami, a defensive team built on discipline and “culture,” needs a heavy offensive injection in order to even these Finals back up before they head to South Beach.

Butler is an answer. He might be the Heat’s only answer. And he’ll likely deliver with his team in danger of a dangerous 2-0 series hole.