NBA In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Best Bets: Tuesday

The first game of the NBA In-Season Tournament knockout round delivered. The Indiana Pacers upset the Boston Celtics in a 122-112 thriller that was a lot closer than the double-digit outcome suggests. Then the New Orleans Pelicans eliminated the Sacramento Kings 127-117 in a fast-paced scorcher.

NBA In-Season Tournament Best Bets for Tuesday

• Odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.

New York Knicks (+5) at Milwaukee Bucks, 7:30 p.m. ET

Imma roll with the Knicks and just come clean about being a bias fan. But, bias aside, there’s a softness about the Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo cannot hit free throws and doesn’t have a lot of offensive moves. Damian Lillard cannot D up. Bucks wing Khris Middleton is always hurt. Milwaukee big Brook Lopez was one of the softest centers in the NBA before joining the Bucks.

Outside of Giannis vs. New York All-Star Julius Randle, the Knicks are better at every position. Their guard combination of Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley is better than Lillard and Bucks PG Cameron Payne. Knicks bigs Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein give New York an edge in the front-court.

The Bucks already beat the Knicks 110-105 in group play of the NBA In-Season Tournament Nov. 3rd. Brunson cooked Dame with 45 points however Randle only chipped in 16 thanks to an awful 5-for-20 shooting performance.

Also, NYK was missing SF R.J. Barrett in Milwaukee earlier this season. Barrett is their 3rd leading scorer behind Brunson and Randle and has turned into a reliable 3-point shooter. The bottom line is if Randle plays better, the Knicks will win Tuesday.

DunksAndThrees.com adjusts for strength of schedule and ranks New York 6th in net rating (+3.4) and Milwaukee 7th (+2.8). Basketball Reference uses a “Simple Rating System” (SRS), which blends strength of schedule with scoring margin. The Knicks have a +4.8 SRS and the Bucks are +2.4 SRS.

Finally, the question becomes: “How much is home-court worth?” Against most teams, a lot. But, the Knicks have continuity on the roster and coaching staff. They are used to playing big games on the road so the moment won’t be “too big” for NYK.

My prediction: Knicks 113, Bucks 110

• Bet 1.1u on New York +5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook and sprinkle 0.5u on the Knicks moneyline (+162).

Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers, 10 p.m. ET

I’m hesitant to back old man LeBron James and injury-prone Anthony Davis in season-long futures. But, for a single-game with stakes, gimme LeBron and AD over Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

For the record, I think Booker is the best of the four players. That said, the Lakers have won a title with LeBron and AD while KD and Booker are still getting used to playing together.

Furthermore, the Lakers are a much better team at home because they get home-cooking from the refs. LAL is 8-2 overall and averaging nearly 10 more free-throw attempts per game than their opponents at home.

Lastly, the Lakers get better looks by attacking the basket and Phoenix doesn’t have a lot of rim protection. Per CleaningTheGlass.com, the Lakers attempt the 5th-highest rate of shots at the basket. The Suns are 22nd in defensive field goal shooting at the rim.

My prediction: Lakers 113, Suns 109

• Bet 1.15u on the Lakers moneyline (-115), LA is playable up to -2.5.

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Geoff Clark serves as OutKick’s sports betting guru. As a writer and host of OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark, he dives deep into the sports betting landscape and welcomes an array of sports betting personalities on his show to handicap America’s biggest sporting events.

Sportsbook Wire website, handicapping all the major sports tentpoles with a major focus on the NFL, NBA and MLB.

Clark graduated from St. John University.