NBA MVP futures picks: Best bets at the All-Star break

Nikola Jokic is leading the MVP race, but as a -250 favourite he offers minimal value, and there are plenty of other appealing options on the board.

The latest: Joel Embiid is well-positioned to take the scoring crown, Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to demonstrate his all-around brilliance and Jayson Tatum is leading a team that has the best record in the NBA — albeit by a slim margin.

Here are our NBA MVP futures picks.

NBA odds as of 11:18 a.m. on 02/21/2022.

NBA MVP futures picks

Best Bet: Joel Embiid (+600)

Embiid has been in the mix for this award a number of times, but he hasn’t been able to secure it yet. This could be the year he changes that.

Not only is the Philadelphia 76ers star a feared rim protector, but he’s also averaging 33.1 points per game — the second-highest total in the NBA behind Luka Doncic (33.3).

With the Dallas Mavericks bringing Kyrie Irving aboard, there’s a good chance that Doncic’s usage will drop slightly, opening the door for Embiid to grab the scoring title.

If the big man is able to snatch that crown, the combination of its prestige with his defensive reputation — plus some voter fatigue regarding Jokic — could put him over the top.

Embiid also has a signature performance on his side, as he manhandled Jokic on Jan. 28 en route to a 47-point night. Embiid will have another shot at Jokic on March 27, and if he earns a similar result that could generate some narrative juice for him.

Quick picks

Antetokounmpo (+500): The all-around package Giannis brings to the table is tough to compete with. He’s scoring at the highest clip of his career (31.8 points/game), he’s among the league leaders in rebounding and his help defence is crucial to the Milwaukee Bucks’ success in shutting down opponents.

There’s also evidence that the superstar’s decision-making has gotten better this season. His three-point attempts are at their lowest point since 2018-19 while he’s drawing 13 free throws per contest — almost two more than he’s managed in any other season.

Giannis also deserves credit for keeping the Bucks rolling in the absence of Khris Middleton for most of the season. The team has been extremely successful since Middleton’s return, which could be a strike against Antetokounmpo.

But if Milwaukee ends up with the NBA’s best record, something that’s in play as the team sits 0.5 games back of the Boston Celtics, that will be a feather in Giannis’ cap.

Tatum is an interesting value choice because he’s the best player on the NBA’s best team — and that player often wins this award.

The Celtics have a narrow lead for the NBA’s best record, but the team is still understood to be the class of the league. Boston is the title favourite at +300, and FiveThirtyEight gives them a 24% chance of winning it all, which is 8.0% better than any other squad.

While Jaylen Brown is having a strong season, it’s clear that Tatum is the biggest driving force behind his team’s success. He’s posting career-best numbers in points (30.9), rebounds (8.6) and assists (4.5) while continuing to provide tenacious defence.

If some of the players ahead of him encounter injury troubles or slumps, Tatum could come up through the field.

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