NBA Northwest Division betting preview: Are Nuggets still slept on?
The Denver Nuggets might be the reigning NBA champions, but there were stretches of last season where they didn’t always look like the best team.
The rest of the Western Conference is hoping to exploit those inevitable lulls from a long season to knock Denver from the top seed in the conference. If it happens, whatever team replaces Denver won’t likely be one of its Northwest Division foes.
That’s not to say there aren’t other playoff contenders in the Northwest — there are — but with the Utah Jazz out of the way, the division became Denver’s to lose last season and they’ve been running away with it. This is a team thinking of bigger things — like back-to-back titles — and they have the roster to do it.
If the Nuggets pay attention to things like betting odds, they’ll be going into this new season with a chip on their shoulders, because despite how dominant they looked on their way to last season’s title, they’re going into this season with just the third best title odds in the NBA.
Both the Boston Celtics (+400) and Milwaukee Bucks (+400) have jumped Denver’s +550 odds at BetMGM thanks to a series of trades that landed star players on each roster. For my money, though, the Nuggets are still very much the team to beat.
Aside from returning the best player in the game, Nikola Jokic, Denver can also expect Jamal Murray to be even better in his second season back from a major knee injury. And despite losing Bruce Brown, the team’s supporting cast is still really good and likely improving when you think of young players like Christian Braun who have room to grow.
The Nuggets now have a championship pedigree to go with that chemistry, and just enough doubt for them to channel it into some form of motivation. This remains a dangerous team.
Both were play-in tournament teams last season, with the Wolves eventually clinching a playoff spot and the Thunder missing out. This season, I’m expecting both teams to take steps forward, though with similar end-results.
Timberwolves
Anthony Edwards has top-12 MVP odds at BetMGM after a star performance at the FIBA World Cup for Team USA. I’m not ready to say he’ll actually come close to winning, but his odds show just how much of a leap he’s expected to take this season. That combined with a full season of Karl-Anthony Towns should help this team push for a top-six seed. Ultimately, they’ll fall short and end up in the play-in tournament again because of how deep the West is. From there, I think Edwards helps them punch another ticket to the playoffs.
Thunder
Similar to Minnesota, I think the Thunder come up just short of a top-six seed and end up in the play-in tournament again. And just like last year, I could see them falling short of the playoffs just because of how young they are. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is absolutely capable of carrying OKC in a one-game scenario, but barring a mid-season trade, I’m still concerned about their inexperience. Chet Holmgren is a Rookie of the Year candidate, but asking him to be a top contributor on a playoff team in his first season is a lot.
Utah had a chance to bottom out and compete for a top lottery pick last season after trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, but after starting the year extremely hot, they never fully committed to a rebuild and finished with a 37-45 record.
That’s a spot no team wants to be in, and the thing about this roster is it’s capable of another just below average season that keeps the Jazz out of the playoffs but also prevents them from grabbing a top pick. They’re not good enough and not bad enough. Utah needs to pick a direction and commit to it soon.
So, Portland somehow did what Utah needed to do without ever actually committing to a full rebuild. They landed a top three pick last season while Damian Lillard was still on the roster and used that pick to draft Scoot Henderson, who completely changes the outlook for this team moving forward. Then, they finally traded Lillard for picks and other assets they can flip for even more picks.
The Blazers won’t be great this upcoming season, but they’re finally giving fans something to get excited about. You can see a path forward for this team, and it’s all centered around Henderson.
I’m not going to be the person to say he can’t. Jokic very nearly locked up a third straight MVP last season, and after losing out to Joel Embiid in the regular season, he settled for NBA Finals MVP instead. This is what a player in his prime looks like.
Jokic is coming off his most efficient season as a scorer, and though his volume was down, he maximized the players around him and recorded a career-high 9.8 assists — just a couple tenths of a percentage point away from averaging a triple-double.
Until Jokic shows he’s no longer in that tier of player, just assume he is. Even with the shortest odds to win MVP at BetMGM (+450), he’s a good bet to win it, especially with the finals monkey off his back.
